Fig 1.
Study area and spatial-temporal distribution of EVD in Africa since 2014 (A) Spatial distribution of EVD cases, and (B) Temporal variations of EVD cases and fatality ratio in different countries.
The base layers of the map were obtained from the openly available source via the Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com/downloads/50m-cultural-vectors/).
Fig 2.
Predicted ecologically suitable regions of Ebola virus based on Maxent, Bioclim, Domain, and GARP models with 13 independent, influential variables, i.e., bio3, bio4, bio6, bio7, bio11, bio12, bio14, NDVI, GPP, GPW, HII, LCCS, light.
The base layers of the map were obtained from the openly available source via the Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com/downloads/50m-cultural-vectors/).
Table 1.
Description of the selected 13 variables for this study, including their units, ranges, STD, means, and data sources.
Fig 3.
Potential distribution of Ebola outbreak occurrences based on (A) Maxent(B) Bioclim(C) Domain(D) GARP models plus ROC curves for (E) Maxent(F) Boclim(G) Domain, and (H) GARP.
The base layers of the map were obtained from the openly available source via the Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com/downloads/50m-cultural-vectors/).
Fig 4.
Map of potentially suitable habitats for Ebola virus in Africa and a closer look at four high-risk regions with (A) Integrated risk levels of Ebola based on results derived from four models(B) Western Africa region(C) Coastal regions of the Gulf of Guinea(D) Central Africa region, and (E) Eastern African region.
The base layers of the map were obtained from the openly available source via the Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com/downloads/50m-cultural-vectors/).
Fig 5.
Populations in Ebola risk areas within each country with (A) Spatial distribution of countries within the Ebola risk zone with reported Ebola outbreak (B) The spatial distribution of countries within the Ebola risk zone without any reported Ebola outbreaks, and (C) Histogram of populations at high risk of Ebola infection.
The base layers of the map were obtained from the openly available source via the Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com/downloads/50m-cultural-vectors/).
Table 2.
Contribution and permutation importance of variables derived through Maxent modeling (average of 100 experiments).
Fig 6.
Jackknife test of the importance of environment variables in Maxent, including Jackknife of regularized training gain, test gain and AUC.
Fig 7.
Response curves of environmental factors and the probability of suitability for Ebola based on Maxent model.
Each curve (A-M) represents model-predicted probabilities associated with bio3, bio4, bio6, bio7, bio11, bio12, bio14, GPP, GPW, HII, LCCS, light, and NDVI. Curves display the mean response derived from 10 replicate Maxent runs (shown in red) with means and standard deviations (represented in blue, with two shades for categorical variables).
Fig 8.
GAM model-based impact factors and ecological adaptability response of Ebola (A-M), final fitness classes with bio3, bio4, bio6, bio7, bio11, bio12, bio14, GPP, GPW, HII, LCCS, light, and NDVI.