Fig 1.
Conceptual framework of the study.
The green and pink boxes refer respectively to the climate and human populations variables potentially associated with the mosquito’s life cycle. Source of mosquito images: https://www.cdc.gov/zika/pdfs/spanish/MosquitoLifecycle-sp.pdf CC BY 4.0 license. Source of other icons: https://iconduck.com/ Open-source CC BY 4.0 license.
Fig 2.
Temporal evolution of the averaged Ae. aegypti larval index (solid violet line), rainfalls (dashed brown line) and temperature (dotted green line).
State of São Paulo, 2008 to 2018.
Fig 3.
Temporal pattern of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases recorded by the NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), with colours based on a threshold of ± 0.5°C of ONI, and red dashed lines indicating the threshold used in this study.
State of São Paulo, 2008 to 2018.
Table 1.
Posterior mean and posterior 95% Credible Intervals (on natural scale) for the (fixed) regression parameters associated with the Ae. aegypti larval index.
Fig 4.
Posterior estimates for the nonlinear effect of (a) rainfall and (b) temperature: the solid line shows the posterior mean, and the ribbon describes the 95% Credible Intervals (CI).
Fig 5.
Posterior mean of the Ae. aegypti larval index for (a) La Niña event of 2010–2012 and (b) El Niño event of 2015–2016. *Source of map base layers: IBGE: https://www.ibge.gov.br/geociencias/cartas-e-mapas/mapas-estaduais.html). Open-source CC BY 4.0 license.
Fig 6.
Exceedance probabilities that the Ae. aegypti larval index is ≥ 4 for La Niña event of 2010–2012 and El Niño event of 2015–2016.
*Source of map base layers: IBGE: https://www.ibge.gov.br/geociencias/cartas-e-mapas/mapas-estaduais.html). Open-source CC BY 4.0 license.