Fig 1.
Average monthly rainfall (blue) and average monthly temperature (red) of 12 cities in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2021.
Table 1.
Parameter definitions.
Table 2.
Parameter definitions.
Fig 2.
Model fitting results for Yangjiang, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Huizhou.
(a)-(d) Fitting results for adult mosquitoes (MOI); (e)-(h) Fitting results for larvae (BI). Red circles represent the actual MOI and BI values. The blue asterisks represent the compressed fitting result. In order to clearly show the consistency of the changing trend in the simulation results and monitoring indicators in the figure, we compressed the simulation results.
Fig 3.
Results of sensitivity analysis in Shenzhen from 2016 to 2021.
(a)-(f) Variation of adult mosquito quantity with increasing winter temperature in Shenzhen. The red dashed line from left to right represents the start and end times of diapause, and the black dashed line from left to right represents the ends of winter, spring, summer and autumn. (g)-(l) Effects of seasonal climate change on annual total adult mosquito quantity in Shenzhen. The three sets of data for each season in the subfigure show the results of increasing seasonal rainfall, increasing both seasonal rainfall and seasonal temperature, and increasing seasonal temperature from left to right. The "winter" in figure (g)-(l) represents the winter of the previous year. For example, "winter" in figure (g) represents the winter of 2015, including December 2015 and January and February 2016.
Table 3.
The aftermath durations of effects of seasonal climate change.
Fig 4.
The k-Shape classification results of rainfall and temperature in 84 years.
The horizontal coordinate represents the month, and the vertical coordinate represents the monthly mean temperature in (a)-(f) and the monthly total rainfall after normalization in (g)-(l).
Fig 5.
The change of annual total adult mosquito numbers under different rainfall and temperature distribution combinations.
The color in the figure represents the annual total adult mosquito numbers. The yellower the color, the higher the annual total adult mosquito numbers. (a)-(d) Variation of annual total adult mosquito quantity with annual total rainfall under the same combination of rainfall and temperature distribution. The y-axis label "R, T" represents the combinations of rainfall distributions (R1, R2, R3, R4, R5, R6) and temperature distributions (T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6), such as R1 and T1, R2 and T1, R3 and T5, and so on. There are 36 of them, so the y-axis ranges from 1 to 36. (e)-(h) Variation of annual total adult mosquito quantity when the combination of rainfall and temperature distribution is different under the same annual total rainfall (3500mm). In other words, (e)-(h) are representations of the third column in (a)-(d), respectively.
Fig 6.
Division and importance rank of meteorological indicators.
(a) Taking Shenzhen in 2021 as an example, the figure shows the division of meteorological indicators within a year, calculated using the circlize package in R [35]. The red dotted line in the figure represents 1 January, the "residue" includes January, February and December in a year, and a sector represents a season. From the outside to the inside, the first three rings together show the changes of daily mean temperature on 365 days in a year clockwise, among which the data values are in the range of 25°C-35°C, 15°C-25°C, and less than 15°C, respectively. The fourth ring shows the changes of daily total rainfall in a year clockwise. The mean temperature and total rainfall in the four sectors are denoted as residueMT, springMT, summerMT, autumnMT, residueR, springR, summerR and autumnR. In addition, the coefficient of variation (cvR) of rainfall data is used to represent the uniformity of the rainfall distribution, which is equal to the standard deviation of the annual rainfall data divided by the mean, and the annual total rainfall is denoted sumR. The difference between the number of days between 25°C-35°C and less than 15°C is defined as the temperature index (dayT), that is, the difference between the number of data points in the first ring band and the third ring band. (b) Importance ranking results of the above meteorological indicators by random forest and verification results of indicators importance ranking.
Fig 7.
Predicted results for the MOIs for 12 cities in Guangdong Province in 2022.
Different colour bands represent different risk levels which are "meet the prevention and control requirements" (MOI<5), "low risk level" (5<MOI<10), "medium risk level" (10<MOI<20) and "high risk level" (MOI>20) from bottom to top, respectively. The left side of the dotted line is January-May in which the MOI is predicted by real weather data, and the right side is June-December in which the MOI is predicted by substituting the mean of the weather data of corresponding months in the previous seven years into the model. The white asterisk in the figure represents the MOI value published on the official website of Guangdong Provincial Health Commission in 2022.
Fig 8.
Grey correlation analysis results for 12 cities from 2016 to 2022.
The numbers on top of the bars in the figure are the values of the grey correlation degree (GRA). The asterisks represent the policy implementation strength (PES) of the 12 cities from 2016 to 2021. According to the notice on the official website of each municipal government, there are two kinds of specific mosquito control policies: (1) the special mosquito eradication campaign, and (2) the patriotic health campaign which includes measures such as killing adult mosquitoes and removing standing water. According to the frequency of policy implementation, we divide its enforcement strength into five levels. If no policy has been implemented, the 0 is denoted; if the policy has been implemented for ≤ 3 months, the number is 1; if the policy has been implemented for ≤ 6 months or regional control mosquitoes is frequent, the number is 2; if mosquito control was carried out over 6 months, 3 is denoted; if the mosquitoes were controlled for more than 6 months but also at least twice a month, 4 is denoted.