Fig 1.
World map of LF and MDA status in 2020.
Data collected from [7] and map was made with the aid of borders.m file [8] in MATLAB.
Fig 2.
(a) Life cycle of W. bancrofti. Image courtesy of Public Health Image Library, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (https://phil.cdc.gov/Details.aspx?pid=3425). (b) Scheme of the ODE compartmental model for LF transmission from [27] with no treatment (after the termination of MDA). The human population is divided into uninfected Uh, latent Lh, and infectious Ih; the total population is Nh = Uh + Lh + Ih. Mosquitoes are either uninfected Uv, exposed Ev, or infected Iv; the total population is Nv = Uv + Ev + Iv. Solid arrows represent the transition of humans and mosquitoes between different states of infection. The letters next to the arrows specify the rates of the transitions. All new members of both populations enter their respective uninfected classes at per capita rates bh and bv. Both humans and mosquitoes leave their respective population through natural death at per capita rates δh and δv. The uninfected mosquitoes become infected at rate . The uninfected humans become latent at the rate
, the force of infection. The latent individuals progress to infectious at rate α. The exposed vectors become infectious at rate σ. Dashed lines represent the transfer of parasites from human to mosquito and vice versa through a mosquito bite.
Table 1.
The rates are per capita per week. The parameter values are discussed in Section 2.3. The range shows the bounds we used in sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in Section 4.1.
Fig 3.
The dependence of (a) the optimal individual protection levels cNE and (b) the effective reproduction number on the relative cost of protection the full protection, κ.
Fig 4.
Results of the uncertainty (a) and sensitivity (b) analysis for the dependence of cNE on parameter values.
The parameter ranges are as in Table 1. Only parameters with sensitivity over 0.05 are shown in figure (b).
Fig 5.
Results of the uncertainty (a) and sensitivity (b) analysis for the dependence of the annual incidence rate (per 105 individuals) on various parameters.
The parameter ranges are as in Table 1. Only parameters with sensitivity over 0.05 are shown in figure (b).
Fig 6.
Results of the uncertainty (a) and (c), and sensitivity (b) and (d) analysis for the dependence of and
on various parameters.
The parameter ranges are as in Table 1. Only parameters with sensitivity over 0.05 are shown in figures (b) and (d).