Table 1.
Parameters of the natural history of yellow fever, their definitions and range of values used in the analysis.
Table 2.
Likely and confirmed cases of yellow fever according to selected variables, Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2016 to 2018.
Fig 1.
Historical series of reported (black line) and confirmed (red line) yellow fever cases, Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2016–2018.
(Epidemiological weeks were transformed into a continuous count with 7-day intervals, totaling 109 weeks).
Fig 2.
Yellow fever incidence per 100 thousand inhabitants according to major health region and year of onset of symptoms, Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2016 to 2018.
Fig (a) Minas Gerais state map according to macroregions; (b) Incidence of yellow fever per 100,000 inhabitants in 2016, (c) Incidence of yellow fever per 100,000 inhabitants in 2017; (d) Incidence of yellow fever per 100,000 inhabitants in 2018. Map created with ggplot2 and sf packages (R platform)—base layer from Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (at https://portaldemapas.ibge.gov.br/portal.php#homepage).
Table 3.
Effective reproduction number and strength of infection according to major health region and epidemiological week, Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2016 to 2018.
Three- to seven-week periods were selected with increases in cases, normally identified at the start of the outbreak in each of the macroregions. The macroregions in the bold face presented statistically significant values (p value < 0.05) in the regression that estimated the rate of growth of cases. The macroregions Norte, Jequitinhonha, Triângulo do Norte, and Triângulo do Sul did not display upward curves, thus preventing calculation of the reproduction number in these regions.
Fig 3.
Yellow fever vaccination coverage in children under one year of age according to macroregions, Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2010 and 2016.
Vaccination coverage was consulted on the website of the Brazilian Ministry of Health (DATASUS). The data refer to vaccination coverage in children under one year of age and classified in three categories, less than 60%, 61% to 94%, and 95% or greater. Fig (a) vaccination coverage in children under one year of age in 2010; (b) vaccination coverage in children under one year of age in 2016; (c) coefficient of variation in vaccination coverage in 2010; (d) coefficient of variation in vaccination coverage in 2016. Map created with ggplot2 and sf packages (R platform)—base layer from Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (https://portaldemapas.ibge.gov.br/portal.php#homepage).
Fig 4.
Yellow fever vaccination coverage (2016) in municipality general populations (adult and children).
Data from Secretariat of Health of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Coverage categories refer to vaccination coverage in children under one year of age and classified in three categories, less than 60%, 61% to 94%, and 95% or greater. Map created with ggplot2 and sf packages (R platform)—base layer from Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (https://portaldemapas.ibge.gov.br/portal.php#homepage).