Fig 1.
A theoretical model for a chikungunya epidemic in a given region.
Direct associations are represented by black arrows and indirect associations by red arrows. The blue area includes the necessary elements for the epidemic to occur.
Fig 2.
Rio de Janeiro city by programmatic areas and neighbourhoods, 2010, Brazil.
Map created using QGIS version 3.12. Map layers by Instituto Pereira Passos (https://www.data.rio/) and Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (https://www.ibge.gov.br/). Map tiles by Stamen Design (http://maps.stamen.com/), under CC BY 3.0. Data by OpenStreetMap.
Fig 3.
Notified chikungunya cases by week (A) and chikungunya cases cumulative incidence per 10,000 inhabitants by neighbourhood (B), January to December 2016, Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil. Map created using R version 3.6.1. Map layers by Instituto Pereira Passos (https://www.data.rio/).
Fig 4.
Sociodevelopment index in 2010 (A), percentage of green areas in 2015 (B), minimum temperature (°C) average in 2016 by neighbourhood (C) and boxplot of the minimum temperature (°C) by neighbourhood and week (D), Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil. Maps created using R version 3.6.1. Map layers by Instituto Pereira Passos (https://www.data.rio/).
Fig 5.
Time-varying coefficients (in the log scale, mean and 90% credible interval) for sociodevelopment index (SDI) (A) and proportion of green areas (B) for a spatial model for chikungunya cases from weeks 9 to 52 2016 and controlling for minimum temperature, Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.
Fig 6.
Chikungunya cases mean spatial effects (in the log scale) controlling for sociodevelopment index, proportion of green areas, and minimum temperature, weeks 9 to 52 2016, Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.
Map created using R version 3.6.1. Map layers by Instituto Pereira Passos (https://www.data.rio/).
Fig 7.
Minimum temperature instantaneous effect (in the same week) (A) and memory effect (B) on chikungunya cases (in the log scale) by neighbourhood, mean and 90% credible interval, controlling for sociodevelopment index and proportion of green areas, and the latent spatial effect, weeks 9 to 52 2016, Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.
Fig 8.
Impulse response function of the minimum temperature effect on chikungunya cases over time, posterior mean and 90% credible interval, controlling for sociodevelopment index and proportion of green areas, and the latent spatial effect, in selected neighbourhoods, Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.
Fig 9.
Minimum temperature instantaneous effect on chikungunya cases and its propagation in time by neighbourhood in selected weeks, controlling for sociodevelopment index and green areas proportion, and the latent spatial effect, Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.
Maps created using R version 3.6.1. Map layers by Instituto Pereira Passos (https://www.data.rio/).
Fig 10.
Posterior mean chikungunya relative risk by neighbourhood in selected weeks, controlling for sociodevelopment index, proportion of green areas, and minimum temperature, and the latent spatial effect, Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.
Maps created using R version 3.6.1. Map layers by Instituto Pereira Passos (https://www.data.rio/).