Fig 1.
Map of the areas estimated to be suitable for endemic JEV transmission.
Grey represents land areas classified as either wetland or rice cultivation and was used as the upper bound for the extent of the at-risk population. Dark blue represents the lower bound on the extent of the at-risk population and only includes suitable habitat areas that have a combined density of domestic pigs and ducks of at least 10 per square km. Light + dark blue combined represents the default extent of the at-risk population and includes areas with wetland or rice cultivation that also have suitable environmental conditions for the mosquito vector population and a combined density of at least 2 domestic pigs and ducks per square km. Uncolored areas of the map are not considered as at-risk for endemic JEV transmission. The base map layer was generated using the geoBoundaries Comprehensive Global Administrative Zones (CGAZ) dataset available at https://github.com/wmgeolab/geoBoundaries/raw/main/releaseData/CGAZ/geoBoundariesCGAZ_ADM0.zip.
Table 1.
Estimates of the population at risk of JE in millions (percent of total population).
Baseline estimate is for areas with wetlands or rice cultivation, suitable environmental conditions for the vector and at least 2 domestic pigs or ducks per square km. The low end estimate increases the required density of pigs or ducks to 10 per square km and the moderate estimate assumes a threshold of 1 per square km. The high estimate is for all areas classified as wetlands or rice cultivation.
Fig 2.
Posterior force of infection (FOI) estimates.
Posterior force of infection (FOI) estimates for each country where age-specific incidence data was available. For countries where the FOI was estimated independently from more than one data source, the posterior FOI estimates for each study have been combined into a single distribution.
Fig 3.
Annual Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases from 2010–2019.
(A) Annual JE cases from 2010 to 2019 with vaccination (blue) or under a counterfactual scenario where vaccination coverage in all countries was zero (red). Estimates based on default at-risk population size. (B) Estimates of annual JE cases from 2010 to 2019 using three different estimates of the total size of the at-risk population. Darker bands represents the interquartile range (IQR) and lighter bands represents the 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
Fig 4.
National-level Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases from 2010–2019.
Annual national-level JE cases from 2010 to 2019 with vaccination (blue) or under a counterfactual scenario where vaccination coverage in all countries was zero (red). Darker bands represents the interquartile range (IQR) and lighter bands represents the 95% confidence intervals (CIs).
Fig 5.
National-level Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases from 2010–2019.
Annual national-level JE cases from 2010 to 2019 with vaccination (blue) or under a counterfactual scenario where vaccination coverage in all countries was zero (red). Darker bands represents the interquartile range (IQR) and lighter bands represents the 95% confidence intervals (CIs).