Table 1.
Model parameters included in the transmission model.
Table 2.
Derivation of the optimal regression model.
Fig 1.
The response of P(elim.) to population size at different herd immunities.
The proportion of elimination events from the transmission model (red circles) and the prediction from the regression model (blue line).
Fig 2.
The response of P(elim.) to the infectivity factor at different herd immunities.
The proportion of elimination events from the transmission model (red circles) and the prediction from the regression model (blue line).
Fig 3.
The response of P(elim.) to the fecundity factor at different herd immunities.
The proportion of elimination events from the transmission model (red circles) and the prediction from the regression model (blue line).
Fig 4.
The response of P(elim.) to the in-migration rate at different herd immunities.
The proportion of elimination events from the transmission model (red circles) and the prediction from the regression model (blue line).
Fig 5.
The response of P(elim.) to exposure survival probabilities at different herd immunities.
The proportion of elimination events from the transmission model (red circles) and the prediction from the regression model (blue line).
Fig 6.
The response of P(elim.) to initial incidence at different herd immunities.
The proportion of elimination events from the transmission model (red circles) and the prediction from the regression model (blue line).
Fig 7.
The certainty of the effect of population size on P(elim.) at different herd immunities.
The range of possible values when other parameters not shown in this plot are varied over their ranges. The boxplot shows the median, the interquartile range, minimums and maximums (1.5 times the 1st and 3rd quarter values) and outliers (grey circles).
Fig 8.
The certainty of the effect of the infectivity factor on P(elim.) at different herd immunities.
The range of possible values when other parameters not shown in this plot are varied over their ranges. The boxplot shows the median, the interquartile range, minimums and maximums (1.5 times the 1st and 3 rd quarter values) and outliers (grey circles).
Fig 9.
The certainty of the effect of the fecundity factor on P(elim.) at different herd immunities.
The range of possible values when other parameters not shown in this plot are varied over their ranges. The boxplot shows the median, the interquartile range, minimums and maximums (1.5 times the 1st and 3 rd quarter values) and outliers (grey circles).
Fig 10.
The certainty of the effect of in-migration rates on P(elim.) at different herd immunities.
The range of possible values when other parameters not shown in this plot are varied over their ranges. The boxplot shows the median, the interquartile range, minimums and maximums (1.5 times the 1st and 3 rd quarter values) and outliers (grey circles).
Fig 11.
The certainty of the effect of exposure survival on P(elim.) at different herd immunities.
The range of possible values when other parameters not shown in this plot are varied over their ranges. The boxplot shows the median, the interquartile range, minimums and maximums (1.5 times the 1st and 3 rd quarter values) and outliers (grey circles).
Fig 12.
The certainty of the effect of initial incidence on P(elim.) at different herd immunities.
The range of possible values when other parameters not shown in this plot are varied over their ranges. The boxplot shows the median, the interquartile range, minimums and maximums (1.5 times the 1st and 3d quarter values) and outliers (grey circles).
Fig 13.
A heatmap showing the effect of population size, infectivity and initial incidence on P(elim.) at 30% herd immunity.
Fig 14.
A heatmap showing the effect of population size, infectivity and fecundity on P(elim.) at 30% herd immunity.
Table 3.
Marginal costs to raise P(elim.) through vaccination or sterilization.