Fig 1.
An extract of a map of Tanzania showing the study districts (Kiteto, Longido, Monduli and Simanjiro) forming the Maasai Steppe.
Table 1.
Candidate covariates tested used in initial model runs, and the bolded ones used in the best-performing MaxEnt models.
Table 2.
Model performance based on AUC, AIC, AICc and BIC values for tsetse fly species occurrence and different combinations of the environmental variables.
Fig 2.
Current climate suitability map for the best performing model with the G.m. morsitans occurrence data, and all 4 environmental variables: elevation, precipitation of the wettest month (April), mean maximum temperature of the warmest month (February), and mean minimum temperature of the coldest month (July).
Fig 3.
Midcentury (2050) climate suitability map for the best performing model with the G.m. morsitans occurrence data, and all 4 environmental variables: elevation, precipitation of the wettest month (April), mean maximum temperature of the warmest month (February), and mean minimum temperature of the coldest month (July).
In these figure we see that the probability of occurrence decreases with time (comparing current and midcentury) from the maximum values of 0.845 to 0.658, with contracted habitat.
Fig 4.
Current climate suitability map for the best performing model with the G. pallidipes occurrence data, including all 4 variables.
Fig 5.
Midcentury (2050) climate suitability map for the best performing model with the G. pallidipes occurrence data, including all 4 variables.
In these maps we see that the probability of occurrence decreases with time (comparing current and midcentury) from the maximum values of 0.919 to 0.725, with shrunk habitat.
Fig 6.
Current climate suitability map for G. swynnertoni, for the model including all four predictor variables.
Fig 7.
Midcentury (2050) climate suitability map for G. swynnertoni, for the model including all four predictor variables.
Similarly, these maps indicate that the probability of occurrence decreases with time (comparing current and midcentury) from the maximum values of 0.826 to 0.715, with narrowing habitat.