Fig 1.
Countries involved in the study area (black contour line) and their corresponding OGUs (grey contour line). OGUs with confirmed cases of WNF in 2017 are shown in red.
Fig 2.
Cartographic model of the environmental favorability for WNV infection in humans in the study area.
It results from the projection of the mathematical model shown in S2 Table, which is based on cases reported in 2017.
Fig 3.
Cartographic model of the spatial favorability for WNV infection in humans in the study area.
It results from the projection of the mathematical model shown in S3 Table, which is based on cases of 2017.
Fig 4.
Spatio-environmental model of favorability for the occurrence of WNF cases in humans.
(A) Darker OGUs show higher spatio-environmental favorability. (B) Yellow icons indicate those OGUs that presented cases in 2017. (C) Red icons indicate the OGUs that presented cases in 2018.
Table 1.
Comparative assessment of the classification and discrimination capacities of models.
Values for the environmental and spatio-environmental models, considering the disease case reports of 2017 and 2018. We used the favorability value 0.5 as a cut-off point for classification purposes.
Fig 5.
Predictive Miller calibration lines for the environmental (A) and spatio-environmental (B) models. The red calibration line is the graphic representation of the calibration logit, which is the logit of a logistic regression of the WNF occurrences of the year 2018 on the model's logit values (Y-axis), along the model's logit values (X-axis). The equation of the red line is shown. The yellow line represents the perfect calibration line, with slope 1 and intercept value 0, for comparison.
Fig 6.
Mean of 2018 WNF cases per OGU for each environmental favorability interval.
Fig 7.
3D representation of the average values of environmental favorability (X-axis), Julian week of appearance of the first case of disease (Z-axis), and altitude in 50-meter altitude ranges (Y-axis) of the OGUs. The color gradient (from white to black) in the X-Z plane reflects the degree of environmental favorability of the OGUs (from low to high). The color gradient (from orange to light blue) in the Y-Z plane reflects the earliness of the disease onset (earlier to later).