Table 1.
Table of classification types and the covariates included.
Fig 1.
(A) Number of yellow fever report months over time (2003–2016) by country. (B) Total number of yellow fever reports by province (2003–2016) across South America. Figs were produced using the programming language R version 3.5.1 and used publicly available data gathered from the Weekly Epidemiological Record published by the WHO [34].
Fig 2.
Yellow fever reports by country and month.
The heatmap shows the proportion of reports in a country by calendar month, the bar chart on the left-hand side shows the total number of reports by country and the bar chart above shows the total number of months reporting cases by month. Countries are ordered by latitude.
Fig 3.
Ensemble model predictions of the number of YF report months for the (A) interannual model and the (B) seasonal model. (C) and (D) show the differences between these predictions and the data for the interannual model and the seasonal model, respectively. Figs were produced using the programming language R version 3.5.1 and the data was generated by the authors.
Fig 4.
Summed ensemble model predictions (points) for (A) each year for the interannual model (A), and for each month for the seasonal model (B), contrast against the actual summed report months (lines) for each year or month. Yearly (C) and monthly (D) predictions ranked against the actual report months for the interannual and seasonal models, respectively (lines show predicted = actual).
Table 2.
Table of the permutation importance of different covariate groups, and individual covariates as well as standardised coefficient values.
Only covariates that were significant in at least one of the model sets are shown. (A) Refers to the inter-annual model, and (B) the seasonal model.