Fig 1.
Maps of the Athens-Clarke County, GA study area.
A) False-color Sentinel-2 image from 2017 with the shortwave infrared band displayed as red, the near infrared band displayed as green, and the green band displayed as blue. With this band combination, tree-covered areas are green and impervious surfaces are pink and red.; B) Tree cover map from Sentinel-2 imagery with water bodies displayed as gray; C) Impervious surface map from Sentinel-2 imagery with water bodies displayed as gray; D) Block-level population density map from the 2010 U.S. Census. Solid black lines represent county boundaries. The maps were produced using ArcGIS version 10.6.
Fig 2.
Analytical workflow for spatial modeling of microclimate temperatures and thermal potential for dengue transmission by Aedes albopictus.
Orange boxes represent input datasets, green boxes represent models, and blue boxes represent model predictions.
Fig 3.
Time series of daily temperature in Athens, GA during 2018.
Colored lines represent medians and shaded areas represent the 5%-95% quantile range of microclimate observations for daily minimum temperature (orange) and daily maximum temperature (red). Dashed black lines represent data collected at the University of Georgia weather station.
Table 1.
Predictor variables considered in the development of linear models to predict microclimate temperatures based on macroclimate and land cover.
Table 2.
Linear regression models used to predict minimum and maximum daily temperatures as a function of macroclimate and land cover variables.
Variable codes are defined in Table 1.
Fig 4.
Example maps of downscaled microclimate and GridMet temperatures for July 14th, 2018.
A) Minimum microclimate temperature. B) Maximum microclimate temperature. C) Minimum temperature from GridMET data. D) Maximum temperature from GridMET data. The maps were produced using R version 3.6.1.
Fig 5.
Predicted counts of Ae. albopictus abundance as a smoothed function of minimum and maximum daily temperatures summarized over the preceding week.
Black dots represent observed mosquito abundance with the size of the dot proportional to the number of mosquitoes.
Fig 6.
Histograms of temperature-dependent vectorial capacity (VC(T)) for Athens, GA during four monthly periods in 2018.
Bars represent the distribution of VC(T) throughout the entire study area based on a sample of one million grid cells. Black lines represent point estimates of VC(T) based on data from the UGA weather station.
Fig 7.
Maps of temperature-dependent vectorial capacity (VC(T)) for Athens-Clarke County, GA during four monthly periods in 2018.
A) June-July. B) July-August. C) August-September. D) September-October. Note that a different range of VC(T) is represented in each map. Gray patches represent water bodies. The maps were produced using R version 3.6.1.
Fig 8.
Contour plots of temperature-dependent vectorial capacity (VC(T)) in relation to percent tree cover (summarized locally in a 30 m grid cell) and percent impervious surface (summarized within a 1-km circular window).
The response surface was generated using LOESS (localed estimated scatterplot smoothing) regression. A) June-July. B) July-August. C) August-September. D) September-October. Each blue contour line represents a one-unit change of VC(T).
Fig 9.
Map of a vulnerability index for dengue transmission in Athens-Clarke County, GA.
The index was based on the standardized VC(T) for June-October 2018 and standardized, log-transformed human population density data from the U.S. Census. Gray patches represent water bodies. The map was produced using R version 3.6.1.