Fig 1.
Study area and preliminary analysis.
a) Study area and trap sites; b) week of first detection of a West Nile virus (WNV) positive mosquito pool in a given year; c) total number of recorded WNV positive mosquito pools; d) total fraction of recorded WNV positive mosquito pools. Colors represent the cluster division (A: red, B: blue, C: green, D: purple, E: orange). Map was generated using publicly available shapefiles [22].
Fig 2.
Schematic representation of the computational framework.
Mathematical models (yellow boxes) take as inputs recorded temperature and entomological data (blue boxes) to estimate mosquito abundance, West Nile virus prevalences in the bird and vector populations and human transmission risk (green boxes).
Table 1.
Parameters for the entomological model.
Table 2.
Avian parameters for the epidemiological model.
Fig 3.
Fit of the entomological (first row) and epidemiological (second row) models to the observed average number of captured Cx. pipiens mosquitoes and total number of WNV positive pools in 2018 by cluster (A: first column, B: second column, C: third column, D: fourth column, E: last column). Solid line: average. Shaded area: 95%CI of model predictions. Dots: observed data. Bars: 95%CI for the average of the observed captures.
Fig 4.
Comparison between 2018 and previous seasons.
Comparison between 2018 (continuous lines) and averaged previous seasons (2013–2017, dashed lines, shaded areas represent the 95%CI of the averaged 2013–2017 seasons) of the mean i) estimated mosquito abundance (number of adult females per hectare, first row), ii) avian prevalence (second row), iii) mosquito prevalence (third row) and iv) λH, the human transmission risk, (bottom row) for each cluster (A: first column, B: second column, C: third column, D: fourth column, E: last column).
Fig 5.
Estimated prevalences VS spring temperatures.
Estimated average June mosquito (panel a) and avian (panel b) prevalence (Y-axis) versus spring average temperatures in degrees Celsius (X-axis). Colors represent the cluster division (A: red, B: blue, C: green, D: purple, E: orange).