Fig 1.
Mapping current temperature suitability for transmission.
Maps of current monthly suitability based on mean temperatures using a temperature suitability threshold determined by the posterior probability that scaled R0 > 0 is 97.5% for (a) Aedes aegypti and (b) Ae. albopictus, and (c) the number of people at risk (in billions) as a function of their months of exposure for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus.
Fig 2.
Mapping future temperature suitability for transmission scenarios for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus.
Maps of monthly suitability based on a temperature threshold corresponding to the posterior probability that scaled R0 > 0 is greater or equal to 97.5%, for transmission by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for predicted mean monthly temperatures under current climate and future scenarios for 2050 and 2080: a. RCP 2.6 and b. RCP 8.5 in HadGEM2-ES.
Fig 3.
Projected net changes in population at risk.
Projections are given as the net difference in billions at risk, for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus transmission, between current maps and 2050 (top row) or 2080 (bottom row). Results are further broken down by representative climate pathways (RCPs), each averaged across 4 general circulation models.
Table 1.
Changing population at risk due to temperature suitability for Aedes aegypti virus transmission.
All values are given in millions; future projections are averaged across GCMs, broken down by year (2050, 2080) and RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5), and are given as net change from current population at risk. 0+/0- denote the sign of smaller non-zero values that rounded to 0.0, whereas “0” denotes true zeros.
Table 2.
Changing population at risk due to temperature suitability for Aedes albopictus virus transmission.
All values are given in millions; future projections are averaged across GCMs, broken down by year (2050, 2080) and RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5), and are given as net change from current population at risk. 0+/0- denote the sign of smaller non-zero values that rounded to 0.0, whereas “0” denotes true zeros.
Table 3.
Top 10 regional increases in overall populations experiencing temperature suitability for transmission (for one or more months).
Regions are ranked based on millions of people exposed for the first time to any transmission risk; parentheticals give the net change (first exposures minus populations escaping transmission risk). All values are given for the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) in the longest term (2080).