Fig 1.
Dengue cases in Brazilian states and airline flow to the state of Acre.
The map is colored according to the total number of reported dengue cases in each state during the period of this study (from dengue epidemiological year 2001/2002 to 2011/2012). The left panel shows the municipalities of the state of Acre. The network over the country map on the right panel represents the flow of airline passengers to Acre from each state. Edges widths are proportional to the logarithm of the total number of passengers from 2001/2002 to 2011/2012. The underlying shapefiles with political boundaries of Brazilian states and municipalities used to build this figure are publicly available and free to use at Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) website http://downloads.ibge.gov.br/downloads_geociencias.htm.
Fig 2.
Probability of at least one dengue-infected individual traveling to Acre by state of origin during his/her infectious period, per year.
Each panel refers to states within each Brazilian geopolitical Region. The panel on the bottom right shows the overall probability of at least one case importation, regardless of state of origin, as in Eq 3.
Fig 3.
Weeks with Rt > 1 from July 2000 to July 2015.
(A) Weeks with Rt > 1 from July 1st, 2000, to June 30th, 2007. (B) Weeks with Rt > 1 from July 1st, 2007, to June 30th, 2015. Each line on the vertical axis corresponds to a municipality in the state of Acre. Black: municipalities accessible by paved roads during all or almost all the time of the study. Gray: city (CZS) served by airline from Rio Branco. Orange: municipalities partially or totally accessible via unpaved or under maintenance roads. Blue: municipalities whose access necessarily include waterways. Refer to Table 2 for municipalities’ name.
Fig 4.
Mobility network between Acrean municipalities.
Each node represents a municipality, with its size proportional to the natural logarithm of the population. Edges represent the average flow of individuals between municipalities, with width and color proportional to the natural logarithm of the number of travelers. Node color follows the same criteria as in Fig 3: (black) municipalities connected by paved roads, (gray) municipality with air connection to RB, (orange) municipalities connected by highway BR-364 with unpaved or maintenance sections during the period of study, (blue) municipalities that are mainly accessed by river.
Fig 5.
Structural networks time series in epidemiologic years.
Nodes (circles) are the 22 municipalities of the state of Acre in which gray nodes are municipalities with Rt < 1. Colored nodes are the representations of Rt > 1 by the number of consecutive weeks per year, varying in shades of orange for at least one week (lighter) to six consecutive weeks (darker), with gray color for years with no such event in any week. Edges (lines) are the direct connections between municipalities by modal type category: roads (unpaved in red, paved in black, under maintenance or construction in orange), waterway in dark blue dashed line and air in dotted gray line. This figure is provided in higher resolution in supplementary information S1 Fig.
Table 1.
Spearman correlation between time to dengue establishment (T3) and centrality indicators.
Fig 6.
Centrality measures and dengue establishment.
Boxplots comparing the network descriptors of municipalities that witnessed dengue establishment during the study period and those which did not (Yes/No). Values for each Municipality are available in S2 Appendix.
Table 2.
Population size and urban/rural ratio in 2000 and 2010, municipalities with Rt > 1 for 3 consecutive weeks for epidemiological years and first year of Aedes presence confirmed by LI/LIRAa for 22 Acrean municipalities.