Fig 1.
Number of cases and population at risk, 1986–2016.
Reported values for 1986–2016 are as per WHO data; imputed value for 1986 is the sum of the maximum values for each country in the period 1986–2016; estimated values for 1986 and 1996 are as per World Bank study (1997).
Fig 2.
Annual financial costs of the GWEP, by country phase and general, 2009–2014.
General costs refer to costs incurred by global and regional organizations for multi-country activities; costs are expressed in nominal prices (unadjusted for purchasing power).
Fig 3.
Annual financial costs per capita of the GWEP, by country, 2009–2014.
Costs are expressed in nominal prices (unadjusted for purchasing power).
Table 1.
Unit cost per year by phase, 2015 US$, median (2.5th and 97.5th centiles), 2009–2014.
Fig 4.
Annual financial costs of the GWEP and control scenarios, 1986–2020, best estimate and 95% uncertainty intervals.
The control scenario assumes surveillance and outbreak response activities at the level of pre-certification and certification unit costs in endemic/pre-certified and certified countries, respectively, including multi-country activities; costs are expressed in nominal prices (unadjusted for purchasing power).
Fig 5.
Estimated weekly number of infections, cases and deaths—GWEP and null scenarios, 1986–2030.
The null scenario assumes no intervention since 1986.
Fig 6.
Estimated weekly number of at-risk life years, cases and DALYs averted by the GWEP relative to the null scenario, 1986–2030.
Table 2.
Average cost-effectiveness ratio, 2015 US$, best estimate and 95% uncertainty intervals.
Fig 7.
Probability of being cost-effective, by willingness-to-pay (US$) for a DALY averted, in the period 1986–2030.
The control scenario assumes surveillance and outbreak response activities at the level of pre-certification and certification unit costs in endemic/pre-certified and certified countries, respectively, including multi-country activities; it further assumes that these surveillance and outbreak response activities succeed in maintaining incidence at 2015 levels.
Fig 8.
Probability of being cost-effective, by willingness-to-pay (US$) for an at-risk life year averted, in the period 1986–2030.
The control scenario assumes surveillance and outbreak response activities at the level of pre-certification and certification unit costs in endemic/pre-certified and certified countries, respectively, including multi-country activities; it further assumes that these surveillance and outbreak response activities succeed in maintaining incidence at 2015 levels.