Fig 1.
Location of the island of Mayotte.
Mayotte is a small island located in the Mozambique Channel, between Madagascar and the African continent. Mayotte is a French department, while Grande Comore, Mohéli and Anjouan belong to the Union of the Comoros.
Table 1.
Input fixed parameters and parameters to estimate with their input values range.
Fig 2.
Model fit of the exponential model (Model 1b): Median (green line) and 95% CrI (green shaded area).
Observed monthly (blue dots) and annual (black dots) IgG prevalence are shown, together with their 95% CI. For the period October 2004-June 2008 (before the vertical black line), the model was fitted to the monthly IgG prevalence (blue dots). For the period July 2008-June 2016, see Fig 3A–3H. The grey shaded area represents the estimated import period.
Table 2.
Deviance Information Criterions (DIC) for the five models tested, ordered from the best to the worst fit.
Fig 3.
(A-H) Model fit of the exponential model (Model 1b) for (A-H) each epidemiological year between July 2008 and June 2016: Median (green line) and 95% CrI (green shaded area).
The black dots are the observed annual age-stratified IgG prevalence (vertical dashed lines are the 95% CI).
Table 3.
Median, interquartile range and 95% credibility interval of the six parameters estimated, and Deviance Information Criterions (DIC) for the two climate-dependent model scenarios (linear and exponential).
Fig 4.
(A-D) Exponential model (Model 1b), (A) Seasonal variation of Rst (green area), reflecting the actual NDVI values and variation of Rst using long-term NDVI average values (red area). The period between the two vertical lines is the estimated import window. (B-D): Results of the stochastic forecasts: (B) Forecast 1: Effective reproduction number Re over time (green lines, Rst*proportion of susceptibles), and RVF incidence (solid black line) expressed as the number of newly infectious animals per month, together with their 95%CrI (grey shaded area), without import of infectious animals in 2016–17. (C) Forecast 6: with the import of 40 infectious animals in Oct 2016. (D) Forecast 11: with the import of 40 infectious animals in April 2017.