Fig 1.
Distributions of the parameters for the average number of humans (A) and mosquitoes (B) on aircraft.
The dark shaded areas in each distribution indicate the interquartile range. The median and interquartile range (IQR) of each distribution is shown in the corresponding panel.
Fig 2.
Distributions of parameters in the branching process for P. falciparum and dengue virus introduction.
The prevalence of infection in humans and mosquitoes is characterized by Bernoulli distributions with parameters pIH (A and C) and pIM (B and D), respectively. Transmissibility for humans to mosquitoes and mosquitoes to humans are characterized by Poisson distributions with parameters R0HM (E and G) and R0MH (F and H), respectively. The dark shaded areas in each distribution indicate the interquartile range. Each panel provides the median and the interquartile range (IQR) of the corresponding distribution.
Fig 3.
Step by step probabilities of success for each introduction pathway.
For each sequential step in the mosquito (A) and human (B) introduction processes, we calculated the median (points) and 95% Credible Interval (vertical lines) for the probability of at least one event occurring. For example, the median probability that at least one human is on an aircraft is approximately 1.0 while the median probability that there is at least one human on an aircraft AND who is infected with a dengue virus is approximately 0.5. Note that for the introduction pathway via infected mosquitoes, the probabilities of success at each step (as well as the 95% CI) are nearly identical for both malaria and dengue.
Fig 4.
Distributions for the probability of introduction by each pathway.
The density (log scale) for the probability of introduction via each pathway across 1 million simulations for P. falciparum (left column) and dengue virus (right column) and for the two pathways of introduction: infected mosquitoes (top row) and infected humans (bottom row). Each panel provides the median and 95% credible interval.
Fig 5.
Sensitivity of introduction pathways to each individual step.
Sensitivity coefficients indicate the percent change in the probability of introduction given a 1% change in each individual parameter (S1 Text). The probability of travel and the prevalence of infection are combined in the parameters λITM and λITH.