Table 1.
List of variables used in the models and their respective descriptions.
Table 2.
Description of models M0, MS, MB, MRSU, and MRP.
Models are built using observed data and different assumptions. Depending on observed data, each model permits distinct parameters to be estimated. Some of these models are closely related to other methods proposed in the literature as shown in the counterpart model column.
Fig 1.
Estimation of abundance, survivorship, and recruiting rate in a study area in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
(A) Abundance of mosquitoes (number of females in the Z-10 area). (B) Probability of daily survival. (C) Recruiting rate, where npupae is the number of pupae collected. Outlier values are shown by points.
Table 3.
Abundance estimates from simulated data.
The simulation study number refers to the study identifier (S1 Table). Results (means and credibility intervals) are shown at thousands for clarity purposes. An asterisk (*) indicates whether the credibility interval contains the assumed abundance value (shown at first column).
Table 4.
Results for all parameters from analysis via MCMC using the described models and simulation dataset # 1.
Simulated data were obtained using parameter values in the first line (Input value). Results from analysis running MCMC simulations (3 chains, 360,000 iterations, 320,000 burn-in period) are shown in the subsequent lines (Estimation). Mean values and credibility intervals (95%) are obtained from posterior output samples. An asterisk (*) indicates whether the credibility interval contains the assumed input value in the simulation. Parameters not estimated due to the model limitations are signaled by a single dash (-).
Fig 2.
Impact of release numbers on parameter estimates.
Results are shown for the posterior distributions (mean and 95% credibility intervals) of abundance (A) and capture effciency (B). Horizontal lines indicate the assumed input value for simulation. Points indicate outliers. Released numbers less than 1,000 reveal either mean not close to the assumed value or large 95% credibility interval/poor convergence.
Fig 3.
Estimates of probability of daily survival under MRP model under distinct conditons.
All simulation parameters are equal at all experiments, except for varying probability of daily survival. Abundance is 4,000 mosquitoes and 2,000 marked mosquitoes are released. Trap capture efficiency is fixed at 0.05. Results are shown for the posterior distributions (mean and 95% credibility intervals). SurvivalU indicates assumed values used for unmarked PDS, whereas SurvivalM indicates assumed values for marked PDS. Red and blue boxplots represent results for marked and unmarked cohorts, respectively.
Fig 4.
The effect of pupae search efficiency at observing immature counts under MRP model.
Here, efficiency describes how good from 0 to 1 counting the immature individuals (pupae) in the pre-MRR phase. Results are shown for the posterior distributions (mean and 95% credibility intervals). Chart A shows abundance results. Chart B indicates recruitment estimates. Chart C indicates survivorship of unmarked individuals. All estimations are intertwined and lowering efficiency causes all of them to deviate from assumed values (black bars). Colors represent the number of released individuals as shown in legend.
Fig 5.
Distinct values of survival rates between marked population and unmarked population impact in abundance and recruitment estimates under models MRSU and MRP.
Results are shown for the posterior distributions (mean and 95% credibility intervals). Colors represent the number of released individuals. When the absolute value of the difference between survival of unmarked and marked individuals is 0.07, estimates of either abundance (A) or recruitment and (B) are not close to the assumed value.
Fig 6.
Capture efficiency at traps and its effect in the abundance estimates under MRP model.
Capture efficiency varies from values 0.03 to 0.1. Results are shown for the posterior distributions (mean and 95% credibility intervals). All other parameters (abundance, released numbers, recrutiment, survival) were equal across simulation experiments. Abundance is 4,000 mosquitoes and 2,000 mosquitoes are released. Recruitment rate is at 600 mosquitoes/day. Probabilities of daily survival is 0.85 for unmarked cohort and 0.78 for marked cohort. Surprisingly, high capture efficiency does not decrease the 95% credibility intervals significantly.