Table 1.
Fixed model parameters.
Table 2.
Model parameter estimates and Akaike information criteria for best-fit models for each scenario.
Fig 1.
Overview of Salmonella Typhi, S. Paratyphi and enteric fever cases in Kathmandu, Nepal from April 1997 to June 2011.
(A) Weekly number of S. Typhi cases (blue), S. Paratyphi cases (black) and enteric fever cases (red), from June 2001–May 2002; (B) the distribution of enteric fever cases by age during randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of typhoid treatment conducted between June 2005 and May 2009; (C) distribution of enteric fever cases by gender in the RCTs.
Fig 2.
Fit of models for the baseline scenario and scenarios 1–5 to weekly number of Salmonella Typhi cases, from April 1997 to June 2011, in Kathmandu Nepal.
(A) Baseline scenario; (B) Scenario 1; (C) Scenario 2; (D) Scenario 3; (E) Scenario 4; (F) Scenario 5. Observed weekly cases of S. Typhi (red); best-fit model (blue); Disease duration or R0 (green), depending on the scenario; vertical lines (black) indicate duration of migration.
Fig 3.
Observed and model-predicted age distribution of Salmonella Typhi cases.
Observed and model-predicted age distribution shown for the three time periods for which age-specific data on cases was available. Age-specific data of S. Typhi cases from (A) June to September 2005, (B) from May to September 2006, and (C) from December 2006 to May 2009.
Fig 4.
Model-predicted proportion of chronic carriers by age categories for different model scenarios.
The proportion of individuals in each age group predicted to be in the chronic carrier state is plotted for each model scenario.