Fig 1.
Participant flow diagram.
Table 1.
Patient characteristics at enrolment, and outcomes during hospitalization (N = 2301).
Table 2.
Unadjusted and adjusted effects of candidate predictors at enrolment on clinical outcome (N = 2301).
Table 3.
Reduced baseline logistic regression model for development of DSS and its performance (N = 2301).
Fig 2.
The number of true positive and false positive cases for predictions based on the reduced logistic model on the original dataset using different risk thresholds for classification.
Rugs at the bottom correspond to the distribution of predicted risks. The two vertical lines correspond to risk thresholds of 5% and 20%. Results are for the complete-case analysis.
Fig 3.
Box plots describing changes in haematocrit (Panel A) and platelet (Panel B) values from day 2 to day 6 of illness, among study participants who developed DSS between days 4 and 7 of illness, as well as participants who never developed DSS.
The graph includes all relevant patients who had at least one platelet count recorded between days 2 and 6 of illness, apart from one extreme outlier (without DSS) in whom a platelet count of 779,000 cells/mm3 was recorded on day 5. The numbers displayed at the bottom of each panel represent the number of patients contributing to each box plot.
Fig 4.
Trajectories of longitudinal haematocrit (Panel A) and platelet (Panel B) values for patients enrolled on day 3 who developed DSS between days 4 and 7 of illness (black lines and dots, with data censored from the day DSS occurred) and a control group of 20 randomly chosen patients enrolled on day 3 who did not develop DSS (grey lines and dots).
For the haematocrit levels the black and grey symbols appear randomly superimposed, while for the platelet counts, the black dots tend to be generally lower than their grey counterparts, especially on the day before development of shockâi.e. patients with DSS tend to have lower platelet counts than patients without DSS on a specific day of illness, with the largest difference apparent on the day before shock occurs.
Table 4.
Estimated adjusted effects of platelet count at enrolment (baseline value) and ensuing serial platelet data (current value, % change from previous day) for each day of illness, on the subsequent development of DSS.
Associated discrimination (AUC) is also shown.