Fig 1.
Geographical location of the Yap Main Islands and Fais.
The two islands are inside the marked box in the left panel, and shown in more detail on the enlarged map in the right panel. The maps were created using the ggmap R package [25]. Map tiles by Stamen Design, under CC BY 3.0. Data by OpenStreetMap, under ODbL.
Table 1.
Summaries of the three outbreaks.
Fig 2.
Only compartments that are relevant to the observed case series are depicted. For details of the parameter values, see text.
Fig 3.
Timelines of the outbreaks and model fits.
Left to right: Zika virus on the Yap Main Islands, 2007; dengue outbreak on the Yap Main (and Outer) Islands, 2011 and Fais, 2011. Shown are the data (weekly incidence) as dots, and posterior observation samples (median, line; interquartile range, dark grey; 72% and 95% credible intervals, lighter shades of grey).
Table 2.
Posterior means, 95% credible intervals (CIs) and prior distributions of estimated parameters. Yap: Yap Main Islands.
Parameters given for the distributions are the lower and upper bound for (Log-)uniform distributions, and mean and standard deviation for (Log-)normal distributions. Durations are given in units of days and rates in units of days−1. CI: credible interval.
Fig 4.
Relationship between the human-to-human reproduction number and the equilibrium generation interval.
Human-to-human reproduction number RH → H and equilibrium generation interval Geq in posterior samples split by whether mosquito life spans Dlife,M was 1 week (green) or 2 weeks (brown). Regions used to estimate the reproduction number in Table 3 are shaded in grey.
Table 3.
Posterior mean, IQR and 95% credible interval (CIs) of the human-to-human reproduction number for generation intervals of approximately 3 and 4 weeks (± 1 day) from samples of the posterior distribution (corresponding to the grey shaded areas in Fig 4).
Fig 5.
Distribution of secondary cases for the dengue outbreak in Fais.
The x-axis indicates the days passed since symptom onset of the index case until symptom onset of the secondary case.