Fig 1.
Example of the structure of the data.
The diagram represents the data for a child who had no missing visits. The time of the routine visits is shown by red triangles: the timepoints were spaced two months apart with two visits 24 hours apart for all but the first and last timepoints. The child had had a sample taken at each routine visit. Eighteen distinct genotypes were detected, each is shown with blue rectangles representing the visits where the genotypes where detected. The timing of an illness visit (light blue rectangle) and recorded treatments (dark blue rectangle) is shown below. The column for observed patterns shows how the data are represented for the analysis: 0 indicates that the genotype was not detected at that routine time-point and 1 that it was detected. The pairs of routine visits 24 hours apart were combined, and the detectability was taken into account. The observed pattern ID is the distinct number assigned to the specific pattern.
Table 1.
Covariates included in the P vivax model and their action.
Table 2.
Genotypes detected in 143 children with at least one blood sample at each routine time-point.
Table 3.
Proportion of P vivax MS16 genotypes observed in different intervals by the interval first seen*.
Fig 2.
Estimated seasonal pattern of P falciparum infections (a) estimated pattern during study follow-up (b) seasonal pattern extended to time preceding the study period.
Circles (a): estimated seasonal pattern of P falciparum infections (95% CI) during the study period. Solid line (b): inferred seasonal pattern of P vivax primary infections during the study period. Dashed line (b): assumed seasonal pattern of P vivax primary infections prior to the study period.
Table 4.
Parameter estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the P vivax model.
Fig 3.
Predicted P vivax relapse and primary infection for a three-year-old girl.
(a) Estimated incidence of relapse per infection by two month interval from the primary infection. (b) Estimated incidence of primary infection and of relapses subsequent to primary infections one, two and six intervals earlier. Red circles: The incidence of primary infections prior to (dotted line) and during (solid line) the study period. Blue lines: The incidence of relapses subsequent to primary infections occurring one (light blue triangles), two (mid-blue squares) and six (dark blue diamonds) intervals earlier. (c) Estimated force of blood-stage infection from primary infections and relapses. Red circles: primary infections, blue diamonds: relapses. Shaded area is the warm-up period prior to the study, unshaded area is the study period itself. (d) Estimated proportion of the force of blood-stage infection from primary infections and relapses during the study period. Red triangles: primary infections, blue diamonds: relapses. The predictions are for a three-year old girl in Ilaita village with no ITN use using the results for MS16.