Fig 1.
Location of study area, Guangzhou, in China.
Fig 2.
Flow chart for the transmission of dengue virus between mosquitoes and humans.
Blue Greek letters indicate constant rates which need to be estimated and black letters for constant rates estimated from [36–38]. Yellow English letters indicate temperature and density-dependent functions. Red symbols indicate only temperature dependency and green rectangles on the left side indicate the state variables affected by the spillover effect.
Table 1.
Description of parameters and notation in the model.
Fig 3.
The epidemic curve and passing criteria for Guangzhou Dengue outbreaks in 2013 and 2014.
Black dots represent the amount of daily new cases, and the red shaded rectangles show the time and amount window for the eight criteria (See the detailed descriptions for these criteria in S1 File).
Fig 4.
Trajectories for daily new cases of the 637 passing parameter sets in Cycle 5.
Black dots indicate the number of daily new cases from Guangzhou CDC, while gray lines are model outputs and red line is the median for all outputs. Blue and red vertical dash lines stand for washout and intervention days, respectively. Blue shaded area for the 90 percent interval for all 637 simulations.
Fig 5.
The scaled 637 simulated results and field data for (a) larva and (b) adults. Gray lines show model output, red lines median output, and dark blue points show mosquito surveillance data acquired from Guangzhou CDC.
Table 2.
The range and dm,n for each parameter in Cycle 1 and Cycle 5, and the RR from Cycle 1 to Cycle 5.
Fig 6.
Trajectories of daily new cases under different scenarios.
(A) Postponing the date of imported case in 2014; (B) advancing the date of imported case in 2013; (C) setting the intervention in 2014 to the same as that in 2013; (D) removing all the infected eggs at the beginning of 2014; (E) advancing the date of imported case in 2013 and removing all the infected eggs at the beginning of 2014; and (F) trajectories of the final epidemic size for 2014 after changing the date of imported case between March 1st and November 30th. Black dots indicate for the daily reported case in 2013 and 2014. Gray lines indicate the trajectories for each simulation. Red lines indicate for the median and blue shaded area for the 90 percent interval for all 637 simulations.
Fig 7.
(A) Monthly average temperature; and (B) monthly accumulated precipitation for Guangzhou in 2012 to 2015 and the 30-year average.
Table 3.
Passing rates, median peak sizes, and median final epidemic sizes under different climate scenario for 2014.