Fig 1.
Locations of study areas in Shanxi, China.
A, B, C, D: Datong, Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng, respectively.
Fig 2.
Notified weekly cases of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) and autocorrelation function (ACF) and Partial ACF (PACF) plot of original number of HFMD cases in 4 cities, Shanxi, 2009–2013.
A and E: the number of HFMD cases, ACF and PACF plots of Datong. B and F: the number of HFMD cases, ACF and PACF plots of Taiyuan. C and G: the number of HFMD cases, ACF and PACF plots of Changzhi. D and H: the number of HFMD cases, ACF and PACF plots of Yuncheng.
Fig 3.
ACF and PACF plots of integrated the number of HFMD cases.
A, B, C and D show ACF and PACF plots for Datong, Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng.
Table 1.
Meteorological variables and number of HFMD cases in 4 cities, Shanxi, 2009–2013.
Table 2.
Spearman rank correlations and partial correlations between weekly meteorological variables and HFMD.
Table 3.
Characteristics of SARIMA models for HFMD in four cities.
Fig 4.
ACF and PACF plots of residuals after applying the appropriate SARIMA model.
A: ACF and PACF plot of residuals of SARIMA (0,1,1)(2,0,1)52 model for Datong. B: ACF and PACF plot of residuals of SARIMA (2,1,3)(1,1,1)52 model for Taiyuan. C: ACF and PACF plot of residuals of SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)52 model for Changzhi. D: ACF and PACF plot of residuals of SARIMA (0,1,1)(1,1,2)52 model for Yuncheng.
Table 4.
Characteristics of SARIMA models with climate variables for HFMD in four cities.
Fig 5.
Prediction of the number of HFMD cases on the basis of the model without and with weather variables.
A, B, C, D: Datong, Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng, respectively.
Fig 6.
Dose-response curves of temperature with HFMD occurrence in 4 cities along lags.
The Y axes represent the relative risk (RR) for HFMD within a certain range of temperatures; the grey-shaded areas are 95% CIs. A, B, C, D: Datong, Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng, respectively.