Figure 1.
Occurrence points for Ae. albopictus for three time periods during its recent expansion across the Republic of Panama: A) between 2002 and 2006, Ae. albopictus was found only in the eastern metropolitan area of Panama City; B) during 2006 and 2009, Ae. albopictus expanded to the Colón on the Caribbean coast; and C) between 2010 and 2013, the species was found throughout much of western Panama as well as east of Panama City.
Darker blue colors indicate political districts with higher human population densities. Ae. albopictus apparently has not yet spread to the Bocas del Toro province in northwestern Panama or the Azuero Peninsula, which includes the city of Chitré, nor to much of the lightly inhabited Darién province.
Table 1.
Performance of various geographic species distribution models to predict the expansion of Ae. albopictus in Panama.
Figure 2.
Geographic model predicting future range expansion of Ae. albopictus in Panama.
This model is based on the best-performing-species distribution model (highway network model). Blue pixels represent locations predicted to be likely areas of Ae. albopictus expansion, whereas gray pixels represent areas that had a model suitability that was below the minimum threshold and therefore were unlikely to harbor mosquitoes. Orange points represent species occurrences sampled between 2010 and 2013. A series of surveillance and fumigation chokepoints at strategic locations on the highway network (e.g., points A, B, C, and D) could limit the continued expansion of Ae. albopictus as a first step to reduce the epidemiological risk posed by this invasive vector.