Figure 1.
Distribution of forest, farm, villages, and the movement of macaques and humans between the 3 areas, and the hypothesised transmission cycle of Plasmodium knowlesi in Malaysia and Southeast Asia.
Adapted from the yellow fever transmission cycle observed in Africa [52]. For clarity in notation, the forest will be referred to as the jungle (J), to differentiate from the farm (F) in later equations and model descriptions.
Table 1.
Parameters describing interactions between humans, macaques and mosquitoes derived from the literature.
Table 2.
The median value and ranges of parameter values for P. knowlesi transmission probability and the macaque infectious period that satisfy the criteria at each model validation step.
Figure 2.
Change in total human infection prevalence, overall R0, and human R0 (R0H) with increased human-macaque mixing in the farm area.
Figure 3.
Change in a) total human infection prevalence and b) human R0 (R0H) with increasing LLIN/LLIH coverage in the village and jungle areas.
Shaded areas represent for: (a) the 95% range (light yellow) and the interquartile range (dark yellow), (b) the full range (light pink) to enable us to see the coverage needed to bring R0H below 1, the 95% range (light red), and the interquartile range (dark red). The block line represents the median value.
Figure 4.
Change in total human infection prevalence with increasing rapid treatment coverage.
Shaded areas represent the 95% range (light yellow) and interquartile range (dark yellow); the block line represents the median value.