Figure 1.
Map of the three endemic regions in the two southern Mexico states.
The dark grey areas indicate the Oaxaca focus and the Northern and Southern Chiapas foci.
Figure 2.
Time series profile and ACF plot for the data from Oaxaca and Chiapas.
A and C) Time series profile of the square root values of onchocerciasis cases in Oaxaca and Chiapas. Dashed blue line indicates the trend of onchocerciasis series. B and D) Autocorrelation function (ACF) of onchocerciasis cases from Oaxaca and Chiapas. The x-axis represents the number of lags. Dashed blue line indicates 95% confidence interval.
Figure 3.
ACF and PACF plots of the residuals for the fitted models.
A and B) Autocorrelation function (ACF) and Partial ACF (PACF) plot of the residuals of the ARIMA (1,1,1)x(0,0,1)12 model fitted for Oaxaca. C and D) Autocorrelation function (ACF) and Partial ACF (PACF) plot of the residuals of the ARIMA (1,1,1)x(1,0,0)12 model fitted for Chiapas. The x-axis represents the number of lags. Dashed blue lines indicate 95% confidence interval.
Figure 4.
Time series profile for the observed data and for the fitted model.
A). Black line: The square root curve of observed onchocerciasis cases in Oaxaca for the period 1988–1998. Solid red line: ARIMA (0,1,2)x(0,0,1)12 model's fitted values (1988–1997) and 1-step ahead predicted values (year 1998–1999) with their 95% prediction intervals (dashed blue line). B) Black line: The square root curve of observed onchocerciasis cases in Chiapas for the period 1988–2011. Solid red line: ARIMA (1,1,1)x(1,0,1)12 model's fitted values (1988–2011) and 1-step ahead predicted values (year 2012–2013) with their 95% prediction intervals (dashed blue lines).
Table 1.
Estimate parameters of the ARIMA models.