Figure 1.
Average weekly distribution of dengue cases, mean temperature, and cumulative rainfall.
Graphical presentation of lag relationship between weather predictors and dengue cases using weekly average over the period 2000–2010.
Figure 2.
Fitted dengue cases versus reported dengue cases in 2000–2010.
Model-based predicted or fitted dengue cases were plotted against actual reported dengue cases during the model training period.
Figure 3.
Forecasted dengue cases versus reported dengue cases in 2011–2012.
Weekly forecasted dengue cases compared with reported cases during the validation period from 2011 week 1 to 2012 week 16. Epidemic threshold was 191 cases for 2011 and 200 cases for 2012.
Figure 4.
Analysis of sensitivity of model to detect reported dengue epidemics using ROC curves.
ROC curves in graph A and B show sensitivity of model to detect true outbreak with corresponding probability of false alarm in year 2004–2010 and 2011, respectively.