Figure 1.
The 2008 cholera epidemic in SAB.
Panel A (solid line) shows suspected and confirmed cholera cases reporting to cholera treatment centers/units (shown as circles and triangles) throughout all areas of SAB aggregated in 5-day intervals. The dashed line below (B) shows 5-day aggregated cases from Bandim, the area with the highest attack rate (40.6 per 1000). Panel C illustrates the day of the first reported case for each area. Attack rates (per 1000) for each area are shown in D.
Table 1.
Overview of assumptions related to vaccination and immunity.
Table 2.
Overview of sanitary areas in SAB.
Table 3.
Vaccination scenarios.
Figure 2.
Cholera transmission model overview.
10-step ahead (50 day) predictions for all of SAB (A) and Bandim (B) with 95% predictive interval bands. The arrows in Panel C illustrate the proportion of cases estimated to be caused in each area (head of arrow) by another (tail end of arrow). Panel D illustrates the mean effective internal reproductive number ( for each area (colors), and the proportion of each areas epidemic estimated to be caused by Bandim (arrows). Arrow size and transparency are scaled by the magnitude with a minimum of 10% shown.
Figure 3.
Odds of internally caused case over time by area.
Odds of a case being caused internally (i.e. as a result of other cases in that area) vs. externally for all areas throughout the epidemic, sorted by attack rate (top to bottom). Red represents those values in support of an internally driven epidemic and blue represents those supporting an externally driven epidemic. The observed epidemic curve is shown above in grey for reference.
Figure 4.
Mean ,
and 95% credible intervals.
Sorted from top to bottom by .
Figure 5.
Vaccination results by strategy and start time.
Each plot shows the median (diamonds) and 95% predictive interval for the proportion of cases averted by vaccination start time for (A) attack rate-based, (B) population-based, and (C) connectivity-based targeting strategies. The colored lines represent the different number of areas vaccinated. Estimates made from simulations starting at the time of vaccination with 37,500 individuals vaccinated (75,000 doses). Purple lines (14 vaccination areas) are the same in each panel.
Table 4.
Vaccination scenario results summary.
Figure 6.
Comparison of cumulative cases within (red) and outside (blue) Bandim under targeted and diffuse vaccination.
Dashed lines represent the median number of cases in simulations with vaccination, and the solid lines represent the median number of cases in uncontrolled epidemic simulations (no vaccination). Each row (panels A–C) represents simulations with vaccination started at the epidemic day denoted on the right hand side (e.g. Day 20). Simulations were started from the reported number of cases in the first 5 days of the epidemic.