Table 1.
Number of species presence records, AUC-values, and training gain for the selected bioclimatic variables.
Table 2.
Cost factors within the defined cost surfaces for Phlebotomus species.
Figure 1.
Location and topography of the Alps.
Elevation is visualised in tenfold vertical exaggeration. The Alps are the highest mountain range in the continental interior of Europe separating the Mediterranean region from Central Europe and extending from France (West) through Switzerland and Italy (South) into Austria, Germany (North) Slovenia, and Croatia (East). Alpine regions are considered as the main natural barrier for natural sandfly dispersal.
Figure 2.
Principle of the least-cost analysis.
Least-cost analysis was used to determine the most likely way of natural dispersal sandfly species in the 21st century.
Figure 3.
Current and projected climatic suitability for five Phlebotomus species.
Values of climatic suitability range theoretically from 0 (unfavourable conditions) to 1 (perfect conditions). Projections refer to the A1B scenario.
Table 3.
Current and projected climatic suitability for Phlebotomus species in Central Europe.
Figure 4.
Least-cost paths for Phlebotomus species.
The detected pathways indicate direction of spread in the 21st century. Spatio-temporal varying climatic suitability and wind speed included in the cost surface that must be crossed by species in the 21st century refer to the A1B scenario.