Figure 1.
Map of Australia showing the 234 Ae. aegypti collection sites described in Table S1.
Almost all localities (except site 219 and 220) can be regarded as historical collections while red sites indicate historical sites where Ae. aegypti is no longer found and green sites are regarded as contemporary sites, collected since 1980. Top right map displays the current Australia resident population distribution and each dot represents approximately 1000 people (Source: Australian Demographic Statistics (3101.1)).
Figure 2.
Distributional projections of Ae. aegypti in Australia based on 234 collection sites and built using desktop GARP and eight climatic variables.
Panel A is the base layer projection (gray region) for the climate of 1995 and is regarded as current climate. Panel B is the projection of the forecasted climate changes for 2030 mid scenario. Panel C is the projection of the forecasted climate changes for 2050 mid scenario.
Figure 3.
Theoretical distribution limits for Ae. aegypti and dengue transmission in Australia.
Panels A–C represent the 10°C July isotherm with panel A the base layer projection for the current climate (1995). Panels B and C show the 10°C July isotherm limit of the climate change (mid) scenarios for 2030 and 2050 respectively. Panels D–F show distribution limits of Ae. aegypti in Australia based on the climate limit of 15°C annual mean isotherm. Panel D is the current climate (1995), panels E and F show the 15°C annual mean isotherm for climate change mid scenarios 2030 and 2050 respectively.
Table 1.
Collection sites in NSW that fall below theoretical cool temperature limits.
Figure 4.
Employing a hypothetical dengue climate limit estimated from epidemics in Australia that stopped on the arrival of winter where the outside temperature fell to a wet bulb isotherm (TW) of 14–15°C [12], we mapped a 14.2°C TW isotherm onto Australia using three temporal increments.
Panel A represents the 14.2°C annual mean TW for Australia [12]. Panel B represents the 14.2°C TW for Australia's warmest quarter (December–February), representing summer transmission. Panel C represents the same isotherm for Australia's coolest quarter (June–August), representing potential year-round transmission.