Climate-based modelling and forecasting of dengue in three endemic departments of Peru
Fig 5
Forecasting predictive performance across 2018 to 2021.
Left: The DIR (Dengue Incidence Rate) time series (gold) for each department is shown alongside the posterior median estimate (forest green) for each observation, and the corresponding 95% credible intervals of the posterior predictive distributions (shaded grey) which were obtained by fitting our model to the climatic and surveillance data up to one month preceding, and estimating the posterior predictive distributions for the next month’s three observations. Right: The accompanying visualisation plots the observed DIR vs the corresponding estimated DIR, where the filled colours of light red, light green, and light blue represent Lambayeque, Piura, and Tumbes respectively.