Comparing antigenaemia- and microfilaraemia as criteria for stopping decisions in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in Africa
Fig 2
Observed and simulated prevalence of microfilaraemia (Mf) and circulating filarial antigenaemia (CFA, measured by filarial test strip) for Côte d’Ivoire, at baseline (2014, before the first treatment round) and in 2015, 2016, and 2017 (i.e. 11 months after the first, second and third annual MDA rounds).
Observations are shown as coloured markers with 95% confidence intervals. Model predictions are shown as small dots. Simulation results from runs matched to specific villages at baseline are shown in the colour of that village, and all other runs are shown in grey. A run was considered a match if the predicted Mf-CFA prevalence combination at baseline fell within the ellipse drawn around the observed MF-CFA prevalence combination based on the 95% confidence intervals. For both the model and the observed data, crude prevalence estimates are presented in the figures (i.e. not age-standardized). The MDA coverage was assumed to be 65% of the total population per round in the simulation runs. See Table B in S1 Supplement for details about the simulated scenario and see Fig C in S1 Supplement for a similar figure for Liberia.