Reconstructing long-term dengue virus immunity in French Polynesia
Fig 5
Relation between the proportion of susceptibles and FOI (obtained from our model).
(A) FOI as a function of the fraction of the susceptibles to primary and secondary infections for children (left panel) and general population (right panel). Different colours represent a different circulating serotype. The black solid lines represent the linear regression to the data with 95%-CI as grey shaded areas. Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) between the FOI and the fraction of the susceptible is also provided in the figure. (B) The probability of occurrence of an epidemic (black solid lines) as a function of the fraction of susceptibles. This probability is estimated using application of the logistic regression to the data (See Materials and methods Section). Grey shaded areas show 95%-CI. Red and green circles show epidemics and non-epidemic time periods, respectively. (C) ROC curve to illustrate the diagnostic ability of predicting an epidemic using the fraction of the population that are susceptible.