An investigation of spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the coronavirus 2019 pandemic in Colombia, 2020–2021
Fig 6
Upper panel: Reproduction number for Colombia with 95% CI estimated using the GGM model. The estimated reproduction number of the COVID-19 epidemic in Colombia as of March 27, 2020, is 1.30 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.50). The growth rate parameter, r, is estimated at 1.40 (95%CI: 0.91, 2.0) and the deceleration of the growth parameter, p, is estimated at 0.64 (95%CI: 0.56, 0.71) at α = 0.15. Lower panel: The lower panel shows the GGM fit to the case incidence data for the first 30 days from February 27, 2020 to March 27, 2020. The blue circles correspond to the data points; the solid red line indicates the best model fit, and the red dashed lines represent the 95% confidence interval. The cyan lines are the model fits obtained via bootstrapping.