Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa
Fig 6
Role of spatial fragmentation and mobility.
A) Likelihood to have persistence probability between 50% and 80%, or larger than 80% (light blue/dark blue stacked histogram) in the full parameter space (R0, birth rate) investigated and for different experimental scenarios (panels B-J). B), C), D), E), F), G), H), I), J) Predicted persistence probability of rabies in the domestic dog population as a function of the basic reproductive number R0 and of the annual dogs birth rate for the scenarios considering: only Bangui population B); only urban patches and their connections, discarding rural patches C); only rural patches and their connections, discarding urban patches D); all patches but connected only through short travels E), medium travels F), or long travels G); all patches but connected only through short and medium travels H), short and long travels I), or medium and long travels J).