Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa
Fig 3
Dog rabies persistence probability in Central African Republic.
A) Predicted persistence probability of rabies in the domestic dog population of Central African Republic as a function of the basic reproductive number R0 and of the annual birth rate. Results are obtained using empirically distributed incubation and infectious periods. The symbol ‘x’ corresponds to the maximum likelihood estimate. B) Predicted persistence probability as a function of the annual birth rate for the maximum likelihood estimate R0 = 1.03. The two dotted lines indicate 80% and 95% persistence probability. C) As in A) assuming that incubation and infectious periods are exponentially distributed with the same average duration of incubation and infection of the empirical distributions.