Predicting Rift Valley Fever Inter-epidemic Activities and Outbreak Patterns: Insights from a Stochastic Host-Vector Model
Fig 7
Theoretical prediction of the power spectrum density (PSD) (Eq (13)) for fluctutions of the total number of susceptible livestock, infected livestock and infected mosquitoes.
(First Row) The theoretical prediction using the simplified force of infection. The values of the parameters used in years are as follows: q1 = 0.05, μ1 = (1/16) ∗ 360, μ2 = 1/8, β12 = 0.170, β21 = 0.116, ϵ2 = (1/4) ∗ 360, α′ = α = 256 and m0 = 1.5. This gives R0 = 1.0066. (Second Row) Comparison between theoretical predictions of PSD under the simplified and complex versions of the forces of infection. For the complex force of infection the new parameters are α1 = 0.33, α2 = 19, m0 = 9.45 and , and R0 = 1.0074. Note that description and sources of all model parameters are given in Table 1.