A real-time mechanistic framework for early inference of chikungunya transmission and outbreak sizes in mainland France, 2025

• Sandeep Tegar ,

  Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Validation, Visualization

  * E-mail: santeg@ceh.ac.uk

  Affiliations UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, School of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science and Engineering, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom

  https://orcid.org/0009-0003-2445-9860

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• Dominic P. Brass,

  Roles Funding acquisition, Software, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4900-9124

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• Bethan V. Purse,

  Roles Funding acquisition, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom

  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5140-2710

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• Antoine Mignotte,

  Roles Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Altopictus, Pérols, France

  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7433-1994

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• Guillaume Lacour,

  Roles Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Altopictus, Pérols, France

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9588-6064

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• Christina A. Cobbold,

  Roles Funding acquisition, Resources, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation School of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science and Engineering, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom

  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-7688

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• Steven M. White

  Roles Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3192-9969

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