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Factoring in the increasing unpredictability of Australian weather patterns into statistical modelling of arboviral infections

Posted by awtaylorrobinson on 02 Apr 2021 at 07:38 GMT

The unpredictability of meteorological patterns in Australia is illustrated by the continent’s extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones and flooding, growing in intensity and frequency. Some climatologists would argue that this shows how increasing greenhouse gases from human activities are making a significant impact on the Earth’s climate.
This has led to an anticipated increase in temperature of up to 3 degrees Celsius over the coming decades, as recently reported:

https://theconversation.c...

https://www.science.org.a...

What is considered a one in 100-year event today is more likely to be a one in 50-year event in later decades of this century. The impacts of that are huge for human communities, food production and infrastructure, but also for ecosystems – the more knocked around they get, the less chance they have of full recovery.

These are major variables to factor into any model to predict the prevalence of a mosquito-borne pathogen, given that the vector relies on water in which to breed. This is especially relevant to Ross River virus and the plethora of other arboviruses that are indigenous to Australia, some of which are significantly under-researched.

Predictive models such as this, although imperfect, provide extremely useful tools for informing with increasing accuracy vector surveillance and disease control and prevention programmes.

Andrew Taylor-Robinson,
Professor of Infectious Disease Immunology,
Central Queensland University

No competing interests declared.
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