Lebanon’s crisis environment and consumer behavior

Lebanon continues to face one of the worst and most persistent crises in its recent trajectory [29]. As of 2025, the country is still dealing with the consequences of financial collapse, ongoing currency depreciation, governmental stalemate, and significant shortages of basic goods and services [1]. These persistent circumstances have produced a persistently uncertain environment in which scarcity, inflation, and evolving survival tactics significantly impact consumer decision-making [29].

The roots of this crisis can be traced to the events of 2019−2020, including the financial collapse of 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the devastating Beirut port explosion of 2020. These shocks have significantly disrupted consumer behavior and market dynamics [30]. As such, understanding shifts in consumer behavior is crucial for marketers and policymakers striving to bolster economic resilience and support local industries. Scholars have argued that understanding consumer behavior during crises is essential for navigating uncertain markets and crafting effective interventions [31,32]. The Middle East, characterized by its socio-political instability and collectivist cultural values, offers a distinctive and underexplored context for studying consumer behavior during crises. In particular, the region’s complex political landscape, coupled with strong national identities, makes it an interesting setting for examining how consumers react during crises [17].

Research on crisis-driven consumer behavior has expanded considerably, including in Middle Eastern contexts [17,18]. Building on this foundation, the current study examines how demographic, psychological, and socioeconomic factors jointly shape purchase intentions in Lebanon’s polycrisis environment, testing whether established relationships operate similarly under conditions of extreme institutional collapse and fragmented national identity.

Consumer behavior in normal vs. crisis context

Building on Lebanon’s crisis setting, it is critical to recognize the distinctions between stable and crisis conditions in terms of consumer decision-making. During times with comparatively stable conditions, rational and utilitarian factors usually drive consumer behavior [31]. In such cases, price sensitivity, product quality, convenience, and brand reputation are all important considerations in molding purchasing decisions [33]. Customers base their evaluation of options on maximizing utility and decreasing cost, which reflects decision-making procedures based on resource stability and predictability [31]. For example, shoppers are more inclined to value price and convenience over symbolic or identity-driven buying in non-crisis situations [34].

On the other hand, during times of crisis, identity-driven mechanisms, scarcity, and uncertainty have a significant impact on consumer behavior [35]. As people view purchasing locally produced goods as an ethical responsibility and a show of support for the domestic economy, ethnocentrism frequently takes center stage [36,37]. Decisions in these situations are influenced more by coping mechanisms, group affiliation, and a propensity to reduce risk than by cost or convenience [38]. Consumers frequently choose domestic products as a symbolic act of resilience during financial downturns and natural calamities, which strengthens in-group loyalty and supports local businesses [14,39].

In times of crisis, coping mechanisms also play a crucial role in influencing consumer behavior [38]. According to the Transactional Model of Stress and Coping, people evaluate tension and use coping strategies based on their socioeconomic and psychological resources. In the light of several studies, consumers’ adaptive behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic included stockpiling, avoiding foreign goods, and favoring reliable local brands [31]. These actions show how resilience-oriented consuming practices, which prioritize lowering risk and bolstering control, have replaced logical utility evaluation [38].

Research on consumer behavior during crises has expanded across various contexts, including natural disasters, pandemics, and economic recessions [15,16,35,38]. However, most studies examine single-crisis scenarios in contexts where institutional infrastructure remains functional. Lebanon’s polycrisis, combining financial collapse, political instability, pandemic, and infrastructure destruction, presents distinct theoretical questions about whether psychological mechanisms identified in single-crisis or stable-institution contexts operate similarly when multiple crises compound and institutional systems fail.

This study fills this gap by combining the Stress and Coping framework with the Theory of Reasoned Action to explain consumer purchase intentions in Lebanon’s crisis environment. This adds both theoretical and empirical distinctive aspects to current theories and extends them into the particular setting of the Middle East crisis.

Ethnocentrism and purchase intentions

Consumer ethnocentrism, defined as the belief in the moral superiority of purchasing domestic products [23], plays a pivotal role in shaping purchasing behavior during crises [37]. Studies have consistently shown that ethnocentrism peaks during times of crisis, as consumers seek to support their local economy and preserve national identity [36]. Ethnocentric consumers, according to research, prioritize local products as an expression of solidarity and support for national economic resilience, particularly in collectivist cultures such as those found in the Middle East [37,40]. The Theory of Reasoned Action further underscores this, explaining how attitudes like ethnocentrism influence behavioral actions, such as purchase intentions [19]. Moreover, the Social Identity Theory provides additional theoretical grounding, suggesting that individuals derive a sense of self from their national identity, which can amplify ethnocentric behaviors during crises [20].

Findings from crisis-affected economies, such as Greece and Turkey, have indicated that consumers demonstrate national solidarity by purchasing domestic goods [14,41]. Additionally, studies in post-crisis contexts, such as Argentina’s economic collapse, have shown that ethnocentrism can serve as a coping mechanism, reinforcing local product preferences [39]. In consistent with these findings, given Lebanon’s socio-political and economic instability [29], we hypothesize that:

H1: Consumer ethnocentrism positively influences the purchase intentions for Lebanese products in the country’s crisis context.

Demographic predictors of ethnocentrism

According to Fishbein and Ajzen [19], the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) holds that social factors and personal characteristics shape attitudes, which in turn impact behavioral intentions. One example of such an attitude is consumer ethnocentrism, and its strength can be strongly influenced by demographic traits [42]. Social Identity Theory (SIT) also highlights how loyalty to domestic products is reinforced by affiliation with in-groups, such as family, gender norms, or national identity [20]. Hence, demographic factors such as age, education, gender, and marital status offer a useful prism through which to view differences in ethnocentric inclinations [42], particularly during times of crisis when ties to one’s country and its citizens become increasingly significant.

Previous research has indicated that age is a strong predictor of ethnocentric attitudes, with older consumers exhibiting greater loyalty to domestic products due to more ingrained nationalistic values [42]. This is supported by generational cohort theory, which posits that older generations, having experienced formative events like wars or economic booms, develop stronger attachments to national identity [43].

Conversely, education has been shown to decrease ethnocentrism since exposure to many perspectives and globalized contexts promotes openness and universal attitudes [44]. However, the link is not always linear in weak economies; even when they have greater access to international purchasing options, highly educated people may still choose domestic goods as a symbolic gesture of solidarity or resistance [36]. Therefore, during times of crisis, education can promote global knowledge while not completely eradicating nationalistic sentiments [45].

Gender differences have also been observed, with females often displaying higher ethnocentric attitudes than males [42]. This could be related to socialization patterns that prioritize caring duties, family safety, and community welfare, all of which are consistent with bolstering domestic markets in times of uncertainty [46].

Similarly, marital status has been linked to ethnocentrism, as married individuals may be more concerned with household stability and collective identity, which reinforces national allegiance [47]. In fact, married individuals may be particularly motivated to prioritize local items in the context of Lebanon’s crisis, where households are burdened by shortages and inflation, to safeguard family welfare and support national resilience [48].

Taken collectively, these demographic traits offer significant preconditions for comprehending variance in consumer ethnocentrism [42]. They demonstrate how identity and social structure influence customer reactions in times of crisis by tying opinions toward domestic products to personal life experiences, social roles, and educational exposure [42,44,48]. These elements are particularly relevant in Lebanon’s concurrent crisis, as households deal with uncertainty and scarcity in ways that strengthen their ties to regional goods. Building on these findings, we hypothesize that:

H2a: Age positively influences consumer ethnocentrism in Lebanon’s crisis context.

H2b: Education negatively influences consumer ethnocentrism in Lebanon’s crisis context.

H2c: Females exhibit higher levels of consumer ethnocentrism than males in Lebanon’s crisis context.

H2d: Married individuals exhibit higher levels of consumer ethnocentrism than single individuals in Lebanon’s crisis context.

Older cohorts have been found to have higher ties to national identity, making age one of the most significant demographic factors impacting ethnocentric beliefs [42]. However, age’s significance extends beyond its obvious connection to ethnocentrism. Conforming to the Theory of Reasoned Action [19], predispositions are converted into behavioral intentions through attitudes, such as ethnocentrism. Relatedly, age-based interactions and generational experiences strengthen in-group loyalty, which in turn fuels supportive consumption patterns, according to SIT [20]. Ethnocentrism is a primary means of understanding how age influences buying intentions in the context of Lebanon’s crisis, where concerns about economic survival and community solidarity are paramount [49]. Hence, we hypothesize that:

H3: Ethnocentrism mediates the relationship between age and purchase intentions for Lebanese products in the country’s crisis context.

Psychological factors and coping ability

To understand how consumers make purchasing decisions during emergencies, psychological factors play a crucial role [50]. In accordance with Lazarus and Folkman’s [21] Transactional Model of Stress and Coping, coping skills influence how people evaluate stress and deal with uncertainty. Coping ability serves as both a protective mechanism and a predictor of adaptive consumer behavior in situations of protracted challenges, such as the financial crisis in Lebanon and the COVID-19 pandemic [51]. The ability to cope with stress has been shown to mediate how individuals react to economic or social turmoil, affecting their purchasing behaviors [52]. In other words, higher coping skills make a person more capable of handling stress, keeping things under control, and converting views like ethnocentrism into intentional buying behaviors. On the other hand, weaker coping skills are linked to less planning, maladaptive decision-making, and increased susceptibility to outside influences, all of which might erode purchasing intentions [53].

Crucially, coping skills can also interact with demographic traits [54]. As demonstrated in earlier studies, older consumers tend to exhibit more ethnocentrism [42], yet this effect can vary depending on how well they handle stress [54]. While people with less advanced coping skills might not be able to change their views, those with greater coping skills might continue to have strong intentions to buy local goods in spite of uncertainties [55]. As a result, coping mitigates the impact of age on purchase intentions, highlighting its function as a direct predictor and an interaction term in consumer behavior driven by crises. Thus, we hypothesize that:

H4a: Coping ability positively influences the purchase intentions for Lebanese products in the country’s crisis context.

H4b: Age moderates the relationship between coping ability and purchase intentions for Lebanese products in the country’s crisis context.

Socioeconomic status as a mediator

Socioeconomic status (SES) exerts a significant impact on consumer behavior during crises [56], given that it indicates access to financial, social, and educational resources [57]. In agreement with the Resource-Based Theory of Stress [22], people who possess more resources are better equipped to handle challenges and maintain adaptive behaviors [57]. Higher SES gives consumers more freedom to keep buying local goods in light of political unrest and economic collapse, both as a practical need and as a show of solidarity with their country [56]. Lower SES, in contrast, limits consumer choice and frequently forces people to put affordability and immediate survival ahead of identity-driven purchases [39].

Another psychological resource that influences outcomes in crises, in conjunction with SES, is coping ability [58]. Coping techniques influence how stressors are perceived and converted into behavioral reactions, in adherence to the Transactional Model of Stress and Coping [21]. Empirical research has shown that higher coping efficacy is associated with more robust consumption choices, less fear or avoidance, and a greater propensity to match purchases to long-term objectives [52,55]. Crucially, coping explains why people with comparable material constraints have different behavioral intentions and supports the adaptive use of socioeconomic resources [58]. Building on these insights, within the unique context of Lebanon’s financial and political crises, we hypothesize that:

H5a: SES positively influences the purchase intentions for Lebanese products in the country’s crisis context.

H5b: SES mediates the relationship between coping ability and purchase intentions for Lebanese products in the country’s crisis context.

Coping ability can also be viewed as a mechanism that connects socioeconomic status to stress outcomes, in addition to its role in purchase intentions [52]. Following the Resource-Based Theory of Stress [22], people who have more socioeconomic resources are less stressed because they have access to social and financial safety nets against outside shocks. However, psychological resilience plays a major role in this buffering effect [59]. Within the Transactional Model of Stress and Coping [21], stress is influenced by both structural factors and a person’s ability to recognize and handle difficulties. The argument is supported by empirical data, which indicates that coping effectiveness lessens the degree to which low SES results in increased psychological discomfort [55,60]. Therefore, we hypothesize:

H6: Coping ability mediates the relationship between SES and stress levels in Lebanon’s crisis context.

It is worth mentioning that stress plays a critical role in influencing consumer decisions during times of crisis [61], frequently increasing risk aversion and decreasing propensity to make discretionary or supporting purchases [31]. Although stress is not measured explicitly in this study, its significance as a result of SES and coping can be determined by its relevance in both the Resource-Based Theory of Stress and the Transactional Model of Coping. Hence, by including stress in the framework, the study broadens its theoretical contribution and emphasizes the necessity of additional Lebanese crisis-context research to confirm this pathway empirically.

In the context of Lebanon’s dual crises, Fig 1 shows the conceptual model created for this study, which demonstrates the proposed connections between demographic, psychological, and socioeconomic characteristics with buying behaviors.

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Fig 1. Proposed conceptual model.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0341265.g001

Sample and data collection

To investigate the demographic, psychological, and socioeconomic drivers of ethnocentrism and purchase intentions in Lebanon’s crisis setting, a quantitative method approach was adopted using a structured questionnaire.

The study employed a convenience sampling approach to collect data from Lebanese consumers. Although convenience sampling is less generalizable than probability approaches, it was thought to be suitable for the study’s theory-testing goals and the complex socioeconomic situation during Lebanon’s crisis [62]. To optimize sample diversity and minimize single-source bias present in convenience sampling, participants were recruited through multiple channels, including social media platforms (e.g., LinkedIn and WhatsApp), snowball sampling through personal and professional networks, and mall intercepts [63].

To meet the inclusion requirements, participants had to be Lebanese citizens of a minimum legal age of 18 years old and living in Lebanon at the time of data collection. These requirements made sure that responders were engaged in the local consumer market and had firsthand knowledge of Lebanon’s difficult circumstances. The final sample included 606 individuals who completed the survey in its full. The lack of quota sampling to guarantee proportional representation across demographic characteristics like age, gender, or education level is a drawback that we admit. In the results section, we display the final sample’s demographic makeup to evaluate its representativeness in relation to Lebanon’s population profile.

Using established scales from the literature on ethnocentrism and consumer behavior, the questionnaire was first created in English. Given Lebanon’s bilingual community, the survey was translated into Arabic using Brislin’s [64] back-translation technique to make it accessible to Lebanon’s multilingual populace. Specifically, the English version was translated into Arabic by a bilingual expert, and then back-translated into English by another independent expert. After that, a research team evaluated the versions to identify differences, addressing disagreements through discussion to achieve semantic equivalence while preserving natural Arabic expression.

To evaluate the questionnaire’s cultural appropriateness, translation accuracy, and clarity, a pilot study was carried out with 20 Lebanese customers (10 completing the Arabic version and 10 completing the English version). Minor phrasing changes were made in response to pilot feedback in order to increase clarity in both language versions, improve face validity, and guarantee linguistic equivalency [65].

Data were collected from March 1, 2021, to May 30, 2021, during an intense phase of the socioeconomic crisis in Lebanon. Prior to data collection, approval was obtained from the Institutional Review Board (IRB) of the American University of Beirut to ensure ethical compliance (IRB approval number: SBS-2020–0509). All procedures adhered to the ethical standards of the 1964 Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments.

For participants approached in public settings (e.g., malls), the purpose of the study was explained verbally by a trained research assistant. These participants were informed that participation was voluntary, involved minimal risk, and that their responses would remain anonymous. Those who agreed to participate gave verbal consent, which was considered valid and ethically acceptable under the approved protocol [66]. Their agreement to proceed and complete the questionnaire was taken as an indication of informed consent.

For the online survey, a written consent process was implemented. A detailed text preceded the questionnaire link, clearly explaining the study’s objectives, minimal associated risks, confidentiality measures, and the voluntary nature of participation. Participants were explicitly informed that by clicking the link and submitting the survey, they were providing their informed consent [66].

The questionnaire included mandatory responses to guarantee data completeness. Participants were randomly assigned to one of two identical questionnaires, differing only in a single scenario-based item related to purchase intention:

1. A Lebanese company producing a wafer chocolate bar at a specific price.
2. A foreign (Turkish) company producing a similar wafer chocolate bar at the same price.

Despite the fact that data collection occurred in 2021, resulting in a 4-year gap from the publishing of this research, which we acknowledge as a limitation, the findings retain relevance for two main reasons. First, Lebanon’s crisis conditions have persisted rather than resolved: the currency devaluation, banking paralysis, and institutional collapse that characterized 2021 have continued through 2025, with the Lebanese pound maintaining over 90% devaluation and essential services remaining dysfunctional. Second, and more importantly, this study’s primary contribution is theoretical rather than predictive, examining fundamental psychological mechanisms (ethnocentrism, coping, identity-based consumption) that operate across crisis contexts, not providing time-sensitive forecasts of Lebanese consumer behavior. The 2021 data capture crisis-driven psychological processes during Lebanon’s acute collapse phase, offering insights into how these mechanisms function under extreme conditions that remain applicable to understanding crisis consumption more broadly. The limitations section provides a detailed discussion of the ramifications of this temporal gap.

Measures

To achieve the objectives of this study, measures were assessed using validated multi-item scales that demonstrated high to acceptable internal consistency, as indicated by Cronbach’s alpha values.

Purchase intention served as the primary dependent variable and was measured using a six-point semantic differential scale adapted from Dodds et al. [67] with three items assessing the likelihood of purchasing the product, willingness to buy the product, and probability of considering buying the product. The scale demonstrated high reliability, with Cronbach’s alpha values of 0.90 for the Lebanese product scenario and 0.88 for the foreign product scenario, both exceeding the recommended threshold of 0.70 [68].

Consumer ethnocentrism, which represents the tendency to favor domestically produced goods over foreign alternatives, was assessed using a seven-point Likert scale (1 = strongly disagree, 7 = strongly agree) adapted from Jiménez-Guerrero et al. [69]. The scale included six items, such as “A real Lebanese should always buy Lebanese-made products,” and demonstrated high internal consistency, with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.84, showing high reliability.

Coping ability, reflecting a person’s capacity to adapt to difficult situations, was measured using a six-point Likert scale (1 = strongly disagree, 6 = strongly agree) adapted from Sinclair and Wallston [70]. The scale included four items, such as “I look for creative ways to alter difficult situations.” Cronbach’s alpha yielded 0.60, which is below the conventional threshold of 0.70, but is considered acceptable for exploratory research [71]. We recognize this reduced reliability as a drawback. As a result, throughout the research, data on coping ability were interpreted with proper caution because lower dependability may weaken observed connections and decrease statistical power.

Social class was assessed using the MacArthur Scale of Subjective Social Status [72], where participants ranked themselves on a 10-point ladder (1 = lowest social standing, 10 = highest social standing) to indicate perceived socioeconomic status. In addition to perceived social class, the socioeconomic status (SES) was determined using a standardized composite score that combined demographic factors such as income and education with the MacArthur Scale, providing a more objective measure of participants’ actual socioeconomic standing.

Standard demographic variables, including age (years), gender (male/female), education, marital status (single, married, divorced), and household size (number of people living in the house), were measured through self-report.

All the items adapted are represented in Table 1.

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Table 1. Measurement scales: constructs, items, and sources.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0341265.t001

Analytical approach

To address the research questions and test the hypothesized connections, this study employed a combination of descriptive statistics, regression-based methods, and mediation analysis. All statistical analyses were conducted using the R programming language (version 4.4.0). Prior to hypothesis testing, a number of preparatory studies were carried out to evaluate the quality of the data and guarantee that the statistical processes that followed were satisfactory.

First, descriptive statistics were computed to summarize the key study variables. Next, multiple regression models were estimated to examine the predictors of ethnocentrism and purchase intentions for Lebanese products. Standard errors, p-values, regression coefficients (Beta), and 95% CIs were computed for every model. R² and R² adjusted values were used to evaluate model fit. Effect sizes (Cohen’s f²) were also calculated for all significant predictors to evaluate practical significance alongside statistical significance. To evaluate multicollinearity, variance inflation factors (VIF) were used. All VIF values were less than ten, indicating no substantial multicollinearity difficulties.

Mediation analyses were performed using the mediation package in R to test indirect effects following the counterfactual framework of causal inference [73]. Bootstrapped confidence intervals (5,000 replications) and predictive relevance Q² were used to assess the significance of mediation effects. Additionally, interaction effects were tested to explore potential moderating relationships. This analytical strategy was chosen to test not only direct behavioral outcomes but also the psychological and structural mechanisms underlying consumer decisions in crisis contexts.

Descriptive statistics

Descriptive statistics for the key study variables are presented in this section. Participants reported high purchase intention for Lebanese products (M = 4.185; SD = 1.245), which were notably higher than the purchase intention for foreign products (M = 3.653; SD = 1.356). Consumer ethnocentrism had a mean of 3.764 (SD = 1.146), indicating moderate ethnocentric tendencies in the population. Coping ability was moderately high, averaging 3.646 (SD = 0.575), while stress levels averaged 3.909 (SD = 1.230), showing moderate stress in the sample.

With respect to demographic characteristics, the average age of participants was 29.96 years (SD = 10.94). The sample was composed of 58.2% females and 41.8% males. Regarding marital status, 65.2% of participants were single, 30.5% were married, 1.8% were divorced, and 2.5% identified as “other.” Education level averaged 4.503 (SD = 1.976) on an 8-point scale, illustrating moderate to high educational attainment. For employment status, 53.3% of participants were employed, 29.4% were students, 11.4% were unemployed, and 5.9% reported other employment situations. The average number of children per household was 1.017 (SD = 1.435), and geographic distribution was relatively balanced, with a slightly higher percentage of participants residing in rural areas (50.5%) compared to urban areas (49.5%). Relatedly, participants’ perceived social standing on the MacArthur ladder averaged 6.328 (SD = 1.672) out of 10, demonstrating slightly above-middle subjective social class. All Descriptive statistics are presented in Table 2.

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Table 2. Descriptive statistics of key study variables.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0341265.t002

Hypothesis testing

Before testing the hypotheses, we checked to see if the main regression assumptions were met. Visual examination of the residual plots verified linearity and homoscedasticity, supporting the validity of the regression analyses.

Since all scales were taken from previously validated instruments that had proven to be valid and reliable in earlier studies [67,69,72], confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and factor loadings were not performed. We relied on Cronbach’s alpha to evaluate the sample’s internal consistency.

It is also important to acknowledge that we recognize that the coping ability scale’s Cronbach’s alpha (α = 0.60) is below the standard cutoff of 0.70. Although Hair et al. [71] state that this level of reliability is appropriate for exploratory research, it implies a higher measurement error than the other scales. Considering reduced reliability may weaken observed correlations and impair statistical power, results on coping skills were evaluated cautiously.

H1, H4a, and H5a: Ethnocentrism, coping ability, and SES as direct predictors of purchase intentions.

The regression findings looking at factors influencing consumers’ inclinations to buy Lebanese goods are shown in Table 3. The total model explained 11.98% of the variance in purchase intentions and was statistically significant (R^² = 0.1198, adjusted R^² = 0.089, Cohen’s f² = 0.14).

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Table 3. Regression analysis: effects of ethnocentrism, coping ability, and SES on purchase intentions for Lebanese products.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0341265.t003

As hypothesized, consumer ethnocentrism was a significant positive predictor of purchase intentions for Lebanese products (β = 0.253, SE = 0.066, 95% CI [0.123, 0.382], p < 0.001), supporting H1. In particular, when all other factors were held constant, a one-unit rise in ethnocentrism was linked to a 0.259-unit increase in purchase intentions.

In contrast to H1, coping ability did not substantially predict purchase intentions for Lebanese products (β = 0.022, SE = 0.124, 95% CI [−0.222, 0.266], p = 0.860), and H4a was not supported when SES was included. This null finding implies that, rather than acting as a direct predictor, coping skills largely influence purchase intentions through indirect routes, which will be discussed in the other hypothesis.

However, purchase intentions for Lebanese products were strongly predicted by socioeconomic position, supporting H5a (β = 1.479, SE = 0.492, 95% CI [0.511, 2.450], p = 0.003). This significant positive effect suggests that throughout the crisis, customers with a better socioeconomic level have greater inclinations to buy domestic goods.

H4b: Age as moderator.

The regression findings examining factors influencing consumers’ inclinations to purchase Lebanese goods, including the age moderation effect, are shown in Table 4. The total model explained 11.61% of the variance in purchase intentions and was statistically significant (R² = 0.1161, adjusted R² = 0.083, Cohen’s f² = 0.13).

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Table 4. Regression analysis predicting purchase intentions for the Lebanese product, with age moderation.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0341265.t004

Coping capacity did not substantially predict purchase intentions when SES was included as a direct predictor in the previous analysis, indicating that its influence predominantly occurs through conditional or indirect pathways. However, when examining the relationship between age and coping ability without considering SES, coping ability was significantly associated with purchase intentions, supporting H4a (β = 0.742, SE = 0.359, 95% CI [0.036, 1.449], p = 0.039); yet, this effect was modest. Nevertheless, this link may be understated due to measurement error resulting from the lower reliability of the coping capacity scale (α = 0.60).

Among demographic variables, age positively predicted purchase intentions (β = 0.106, SE = 0.045, 95% CI [0.018, 0.193], p = 0.018), indicating that older customers are more likely to purchase Lebanese goods. On the other hand, gender (β = −0.245, SE = 0.142, 95% CI [−0.523, 0.034], p = 0.085), education (β = 0.053, SE = 0.035, 95% CI [−0.015, 0.122], p = 0.131), and marriage (β = 0.350, SE = 0.555, 95% CI [−0.742, 1.442], p = 0.529) did not significantly predict purchase intentions.

Critically, the interaction between coping ability and age was significant (β = −0.023, SE = 0.012, 95% CI [−0.046, −0.0003], p = 0.047), confirming H4b. This indicates that the link between coping ability and purchase intentions is moderated by age, with coping ability having a stronger effect on purchase intentions among older customers. In particular, the purchase intentions of older customers are more reliant on their perceived coping resources, whereas the intentions of younger consumers are more constant regardless of their coping capacity.

H2a, H2b, H2c, and H2d: Demographic predictors of ethnocentrism.

Table 5 examines the demographic predictors of consumer ethnocentrism. The overall model explained 6.25% of the variance in ethnocentrism (R² = 0.0625, adjusted R² = 0.049, Cohen’s f² = 0.07).

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Table 5. Regression analysis: demographic predictors of consumer ethnocentrism.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0341265.t005

Consistent with H2b, education negatively predicted ethnocentrism (β = −0.048, SE = 0.024, 95% CI [−0.095, −0.002], p = 0.041), suggesting that those with greater levels of educational achievement had fewer ethnocentric inclinations. Gender had a significant effect, with males exhibiting lower ethnocentrism than females (β = −0.303, SE = 0.093, 95% CI [−0.486, −0.119], p = 0.001), supporting H2c. Marital status was also a significant predictor, as married individuals reported higher ethnocentrism scores than other groups (β = 0.701, SE = 0.349, 95% CI [0.015, 1.387], p = 0.045), confirming H2d.

Surprisingly, age in this model did not significantly predict ethnocentrism (β = 0.006, SE = 0.006, 95% CI [−0.006, 0.018], p = 0.340). Given the strong conceptual and empirical association between age and marital status, we proposed that multicollinearity might be reducing the impact of age. Hence, a secondary analysis was conducted excluding marital status (See Table 6).

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Table 6. Regression analysis: demographic predictors of consumer ethnocentrism excluding marital status.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0341265.t006

This model explained 5.14% of variance (R² = 0.0514, adjusted R² = 0.043, Cohen’s f² = 0.054, p < 0.001). In this case, age significantly predicted ethnocentrism (β = 0.012, SE = 0.005, 95% CI [0.003, 0.021], p = 0.012), supporting H2a. This finding indicates that older consumers exhibited stronger ethnocentric beliefs during the crisis, but this relationship was partially masked in the fuller model due to overlap with marital status.

H3: Mediation of age’s effect on purchase intentions by ethnocentrism.

Table 7 presents the mediation analysis results for H3. The average causal mediation effect (ACME) was significant (β = 0.004, 95% CI [0.0005, 0.01], p = 0.016), indicating that ethnocentrism partially mediated the relationship between age and purchase intentions. The model showed sufficient predictive relevance (Q² = 0.062), indicating that the mediation route is useful beyond sample-specific fit [74]. Specifically, older consumers tend to be more ethnocentric during a crisis, which in turn increases their intentions to purchase Lebanese products.

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Table 7. Mediation analysis: ethnocentrism as mediator of age effects on purchase intentions.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0341265.t007

The average direct effect (ADE) remained significant (β = 0.018, 95% CI [0.003, 0.03], p = 0.016), indicating that age also affects purchase intentions through pathways other than ethnocentrism. The total effect was also significant (β = 0.022, 95% CI [0.007, 0.04], p = 0.004). Approximately 16.6% of the effect was mediated by ethnocentrism, confirming partial mediation and supporting H3 (β = 0.166, 95% CI [0.025, 0.53], p = 0.02). Although a small percentage of the age impact can be explained by ethnocentrism, the majority of the effects work through other mechanisms that were not examined in this study.

H5b: Mediation of coping ability’s effect on purchase intentions by socioeconomic status (SES).

Table 8 shows the mediation analysis results for H5b. The ACME was significant (β = 0.056, 95% CI [0.009, 0.120], p = 0.016), suggesting that SES partially mediates the relationship between coping ability and purchase intentions. The predictive relevance of the model was limited (Q² = 0.021), just meeting the threshold for small predictive power [74]. This suggests that individuals with stronger coping ability tend to have higher SES, which in turn predicts purchase intentions.

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Table 8. Mediation analysis: socioeconomic status as mediator of coping ability effects on purchase intentions.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0341265.t008

However, both the ADE (β = 0.1, 95% CI [−0.177, 0.390], p = 0.448) and the total effect were non-significant (β = 0.157, 95% CI [−0.122, 0.460], p = 0.258). The proportion mediated was 35.9% but was not statistically significant (β = 0.359, 95% CI [−2.580, 3.180], p = 0.264). According to MacKinnon et al. [75], this pattern – significant indirect effect but non-significant overall effect – indicates inconsistent mediation and points to competing pathways. Even while the SES pathway is strong and valuable, the overall link may be obscured by opposing processes or unmeasured suppressive effects. This analysis implies that the relationship between coping ability and purchasing intentions is more complex than initially thought and theoretically only weakly supports H5b. These contradictory results could potentially be caused by the coping ability scale’s lower reliability, which introduces measurement error that masks real relationships.

H6: Mediation of SES’s effect on stress by coping ability.

Table 9 reports the mediation analysis results for H6. The ACME was significant (β = −0.057, 95% CI [−0.130, −0.0001], p = 0.033), indicating that higher SES is associated with greater coping ability, which in turn decreases stress levels. Yet, the model showed no predictive relevance (Q² = −0.002), indicating the mediation pathway lacks practical predictive utility beyond the sample [74].

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Table 9. Mediation analysis: coping ability as mediator of SES effects on stress.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0341265.t009

Nevertheless, similar to H5b, both the ADE (β = −0.032, 95% CI [−0.441, 0.36], p = 0.863) and the total effect were also non-significant (β = −0.09, 95% CI [−0.495, 0.30], p = 0.645). The proportion mediated was 63.6% but was not statistically significant (β = 0.636, 95% CI [−4.215, 3.55], p = 0.65). This pattern again suggests inconsistent mediation in which the indirect path through coping ability is significant, but the overall link between SES and stress levels is weak or non-existent (H6) when all pathways are taken together.

Together, these results support the notion that identity-based and coping-related mechanisms influence consumer decision-making in times of national crisis, although some indirect effects remain weak or modest.

Theoretical implications

This research contributes to the theoretical literature on consumer behavior under crisis stress by specifying how the Theory of Reasoned Action [19], Transactional Model of Stress and Coping [21], Social Identity Theory [20], and Resource-Based Theory of Stress [22] interrelate in crisis contexts, exposing new boundary conditions and procedures as opposed to just using established frameworks.

The study uses a sequential causal mechanism to illustrate theoretical integration. The first process is explained by Social Identity Theory: challenges triggered by crises promote ethnocentric views as a psychological defense by activating national identity. The next phase is then explained by the Theory of Reasoned Action: these identity-based attitudes that have been aroused are converted into purchasing intentions by means of cognitive appraisal processes. The Transactional Model of Stress and Coping helps by showing that psychological resources, particularly coping ability, which allows consumers to channel identity into intentional crisis-appropriate conduct, limit this attitude-intention translation. The structural boundary is finally made clear by Resource-Based Theory: this complete psychological pathway only functions when behavioral agency is permitted by institutional functioning and material resources. Identity activation, intention formation, psychological moderation, and structural constraint are the different nodes in the causal chain that each theory tackles. This leads to true integration, where each framework explains what the others cannot contribute to.

Three new theoretical improvements are shown by this integration. First, the relationship between attitude and intention in TRA is contextual rather than universal. In contrast to stronger effects in unified societies, ethnocentrism’s modest effect in Lebanon’s fragmented context shows that identity-based attitudes translate into intentions most effectively when in-group boundaries are clear, crises are attributed to outside forces, and collective identity is cohesive. Second, the Transactional Model necessitates age-dependent specification: for seasoned consumers with interpretive frameworks for directing psychological capacity into action, coping resources are the strongest predictors of adaptive behavior. Third, there is a crucial boundary condition for Resource-Based Theory; when the intensity of a crisis reaches a point where institutional collapse (banking failures, currency destruction, supply disruptions) overcomes individual benefits, resource-behavior linkages break down. Resource theories created in stable Western contexts do not transfer to catastrophic crises where individual-level resources are neutralized by systemic failures, as this threshold effect shows.

These implications underscore the significance of cultural and political context in shaping consumer psychology, particularly in underrepresented regions like the Middle East. In doing so, it calls for more culturally sensitive models that incorporate the influence of national identity, perceived economic threat, and resource access on consumer choices. These theoretical insights may inform future research on consumer resilience, identity expression, and decision-making under uncertainty, especially in emerging or volatile markets.

Practical implications

The findings offer several actionable implications for both marketers and policymakers operating in crisis-affected environments, weighing suggestions based on construct dependability and empirical strength. These observations are specifically relevant to Lebanon, but they also provide generalizable lessons for other crisis-affected markets dealing with comparable issues of economic instability, institutional breakdown, and identity fragmentation.

The considerable impact of ethnocentrism on purchase intentions suggests that identity-based messaging that emphasizes collective resilience and national cohesion should be given priority by marketers. By using phrases like “Building Lebanon Together” or “Your Choice Saves Our Nation,” the Lebanese industries (e.g., food and beverage, clothing) might effectively connect consumption to the country’s recovery. To elicit ethnocentric reactions at the point of sale, packaging should prominently feature Lebanese origin symbols, such as cedar trees, national colors, or “Made in Lebanon” labels.

The high-ethnocentrism segments found in this study should be the focus of demographic segmentation. Marketing efforts should distribute resources differently for married consumers, female consumers, and elderly consumers. Advertising in platforms aimed at women over 40, community centers frequented by married couples, and family-oriented media outlets, for instance, would generate more returns than general, undifferentiated campaigns. Marketers need to understand, though, that even powerful predictors only partially explained variance, suggesting that identity-based appeals should be used in conjunction with rather than in substitute of more conventional marketing elements like availability, price, and quality.

Although older customers’ purchase intentions were strongly predicted by coping capacity, caution is necessary due to the scale’s limited overall effects and modest reliability (α = 0.60). Marketers may test messages like “Take Control: Choose Lebanese” that frame domestic consumption as proactive crisis management, but they should do pilot testing because of measurement limitations. Identity-based messaging backed by more convincing empirical data should take precedence over these appeals.

Traditional socioeconomic advantages offer little protection amid catastrophic institutional breakdown, as seen by the modest SES mediation effects. Hence, from a policy perspective, Systemic reforms, such as currency stabilization, electricity provision, and banking sector reorganization, must take precedence over individual-level measures in the eyes of policymakers. Recommendations tailored to Lebanon include establishing currency exchange systems that facilitate equitable domestic transactions; offering subsidized credit lines to local companies so they can maintain low prices; and enacting preferential procurement laws that mandate government contracts be sourced domestically whenever possible.

More broadly, the results highlight the importance of investing in public initiatives that promote psychological resilience, especially among economically vulnerable populations. Educational and community-based programs that foster adaptive coping mechanisms could indirectly support consumer confidence and stabilize purchasing behavior. Additionally, efforts to reduce socioeconomic inequalities may have long-term effects on market participation and consumer loyalty to local industries.

Overall, aligning communication, segmentation, and policy efforts with psychological and identity-based drivers can strengthen consumer engagement with domestic markets during crises.

Limitations and future research

While this study provides a novel contribution to consumer behavior literature in the Lebanese crisis context, it has several limitations that warrant consideration. First, data collection took place between March and May of 2021, resulting in a four-year gap towards publication. Although the conditions of Lebanon’s crisis (economic collapse, currency devaluation, and institutional dysfunction) have not been fixed, certain consumer behaviors might have changed. The results are only able to capture consumer psychology during the acute crisis period because of this temporal difference. However, rather than making predictions right away, the study’s main contribution is theoretical, showing the ways in which identity, demography, and psychological resources influence crisis consumption. Longitudinal studies monitoring the evolution of these linkages as crises move from acute to chronic phases should be the focus of future research.

Second, convenience sampling was employed without quota controls, which limits generalizability. While accepted in exploratory research, certain demographic segments may be under- or over-represented [86,87]. Hence, future research may benefit from employing probability or stratified sampling techniques to strengthen external validity.

Third, the study’s cross-sectional design restricts causal inference, as it captures a single point in time. Longitudinal or experimental designs could better elucidate the dynamic relationships among ethnocentrism, psychological resilience, and purchase intentions during ongoing or repeated crises. Such approaches could also clarify the directionality of the coping–behavior link.

Fourth, self-reported responses are also subject to potential biases, particularly in assessing identity-related constructs like ethnocentrism or psychological stress. Future research could incorporate behavioral measures (actual purchase data), implicit association tests, or multi-source data to triangulate and validate the findings.

Furthermore, we relied on Cronbach’s alpha and did not disclose individual factor loadings for the measurement scales or perform confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). CFA would have offered further assurance of construct validity in the Lebanese crisis context, even though all scales were taken from previously validated instruments with proven reliability and validity in earlier research [67,69,70,72]. Thus, to increase trust in construct measurement, future studies should validate the whole measurement model.

Another significant methodological consideration involves the coping ability scale, which showed moderate reliability (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.60). While suitable for exploratory research, future studies should adopt or develop more psychometrically robust tools to improve the measurement of psychological resilience. Combining self-report items with behavioral or observational data may enhance construct validity.

While an additional analysis examined consumer reactions to a foreign (Turkish) product, the results were not statistically significant. Future work could investigate how specific product categories, perceived threats to national identity, or brand origin shape ethnocentric avoidance behaviors. This could deepen our understanding of when and why consumers selectively reject foreign alternatives in crisis contexts.

Finally, transferability of findings is restricted by Lebanon’s distinct mix of cosmopolitan heritage, sectarian disintegration, and disastrous institutional breakdown. It is unknown if similar tendencies appear in cohesive civilizations or crises of varying intensities. To distinguish between mechanisms that are universal and those that are context-specific, future research should carry out cross-national comparative studies across a variety of crisis situations, such as other Middle Eastern countries (Syria, Yemen), post-conflict Balkans (Croatia, Bosnia), or Latin American economic crises (Argentina, Venezuela).