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Effectiveness of tuberculosis preventive treatment on disease incidence among people living with HIV/AIDS: A systematic review and meta-analysis

  • José Nildo de Barros Silva Júnior ,

    Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Software, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

    jose.nildo@fiocruz.br

    Affiliations Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil, Institute of Scientific and Technological Communication and Information in Health, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

  • Gilberto da Cruz Leal,

    Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

    Affiliation Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil

  • Quézia Rosa Ferreira,

    Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Visualization

    Affiliation Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil

  • Licia Kellen de Almeida Andrade,

    Roles Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Resources, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

    Affiliation Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil

  • Jaqueline Garcia de Almeida Ballestero,

    Roles Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

    Affiliation Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil

  • Victor Santana Santos,

    Roles Validation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

    Affiliation Department of Medicine, Federal University of Sergipe, Lagarto, SE, Brazil

  • Júlia M.a Pescarini,

    Roles Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

    Affiliation London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, GLA, United Kingdom

  • Anete Trajman,

    Roles Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing, Methodology

    Affiliations Research Institute, McGill University Health Center, Montréal, QC, Canada, Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

  • Denise Arakaki-Sanchez,

    Roles Conceptualization, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

    Affiliation Ministry of Health, National Tuberculosis Programme, Brasilia, DF, Brazil

  • Patricia Bartholomay,

    Roles Conceptualization, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

    Affiliation Ministry of Health, National Center for Epidemiological Intelligence and Genomic Surveillance, Brasilia, DF, Brazil

  • Rubia Laine de Paula Andrade,

    Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Software, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

    Affiliation Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil

  • Daniele Pelissari,

    Roles Conceptualization, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

    Affiliation Ministry of Health, National Tuberculosis Programme, Brasilia, DF, Brazil

  • Pedro Fredemir Palha

    Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Software, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

    Affiliation Ribeirão Preto College of Nursing, University of São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil

Abstract

Background

Clinical trials have shown the protective efficacy of tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for averting disease and death from tuberculosis among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV). TPT has been recommended for PLHIV since the 1980s. However, tuberculosis is still the first cause of death in PLHIV.

Objective

We aimed to summarize the evidence related to the real-world effectiveness of TPT on tuberculosis incidence among PLHIV.

Method

This is a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational cohort studies. The search was carried out in PubMed (via MEDLINE), Embase, LILACS, Scopus and Web of Science databases. Free and controlled vocabulary was used for the searches, with no restrictions on language or publication period. Studies reporting hazard ratios (HR) for tuberculosis incidence among PLHIV who received TPT were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis models. Meta-regression was performed to assess whether study-level characteristics accounted for heterogeneity, as evaluated by Cochran’s I² statistic. Study quality was appraised using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42024586273).

Results

Among 8,330 screened studies, 34 were included, with nine contributing to the meta-analysis. TPT was associated with a 63% reduction in tuberculosis incidence risk (HR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.28–0.48; I² = 43%). Children exhibited consistent stronger protection (82% risk reduction, HR = 0.18, 0.09–0.37; I² = 0%) than adults (56% reduction, HR = 0.44, 0.37–0.53; I² = 21%).

Conclusion

In real world conditions, TPT significantly and substantially reduces tuberculosis incidence in PLHIV, with consistent evidence of stronger protective effects in children. Despite some heterogeneity among adult studies, the pooled evidence confirms the protective effectiveness previously observed in clinical trials. These findings reinforce the global recommendation for broad implementation of TPT among PLHIV.

Introduction

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and tuberculosis are two of the leading infectious causes of global morbidity and mortality. In 2023, approximately 10.8 million people fell ill with tuberculosis, resulting in 1.25 million deaths, including 161,000 among people living with the human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) [1]. That same year, tuberculosis regained its position as the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent in the world, after three years being overtaken by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and was responsible for almost twice as many deaths as HIV/AIDS [1].

The combination of tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS can be lethal due to the synergistic interaction between the two diseases, which amplifies mutual severity. HIV-induced immunosuppression compromises the cellular immune response, increasing susceptibility to primary infection and reactivation of tuberculosis infection (TBI) [2]. This interaction significantly reduces the survival of PLHIV, especially those with low CD4 T-lymphocyte counts and in settings with a high burden of infectious diseases [3,4].

During the 1980s, the World Health Organization (WHO) and other institutions recommended using isoniazid for preventing tuberculosis, especially in areas with a high prevalence of the disease and population at high risk to develop tuberculosis disease [5]. WHO currently recommends shorter rifampicin-based regimens for tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT), but isoniazid remains an option [6] From the perspective of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), in 2015, the WHO declared that achieving the goal of eliminating tuberculosis would only be possible with the broad expansion of TPT alongside continuing to detect and treat persons with tuberculosis [5]. However, the development of tuberculosis disease among PLHIV remains a global concern [7].

HIV-induced immunosuppression increases the risk of reactivation, even after preventive treatment for tuberculosis has been administered. It is estimated that the risk of progression from TBI to tuberculosis disease among PLHIV is 14–18 times higher than in the general population [1]. Non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and the presence of comorbidities or coinfections can further compromise the effectiveness of TPT [7,8].

Understanding the impact of TPT on tuberculosis incidence among PLHIV is crucial not only to addressing the gaps in the global response to tuberculosis-HIV co-infection, but also to advancing the goal of eliminating tuberculosis as a public health problem.

Systematic reviews that consolidate global evidence provide critical support for developing more targeted policies and interventions for tuberculosis control [8]. While previous reviews on TPT among PLHIV have focused mainly on clinical trials [911], these may not reflect long-term outcomes or real-world implementation challenges. Moreover, some reviews did not specifically assess tuberculosis incidence among PLHIV who received TPT, or were limited to evidence from a single country, such as the cohort-based review by Geremew et al. [12], whereas the present study adopts a global perspective.

To evaluate the sustained benefits of TPT, this systematic review aimed to summarize the evidence related to the effectiveness of TPT on the incidence of tuberculosis among PLHIV in cohort studies.

Methods

Search strategy and selection criteria

This is a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies whose protocol was registered in the PROSPERO (CRD42024586273), based on the guidelines included in the Joanna Briggs Institute Manual for Evidence Synthesis [13], the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) [14] and Meta-Analyses Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) [15]. The PRISMA Checklist is available at S1 Table.

The research question, the objective of the study and the descriptors use the mnemonic combination PECO, where P (Population) is PLHIV; E (Exposure) is TPT; C (Control) is PLHIV not undergoing tuberculosis preventive treatment and O (Outcome) is the incidence of tuberculosis. In other words, the guiding question of this review was: What is the summarized evidence related to the effectiveness of TPT on the incidence of tuberculosis among PLHIV?

Different combinations of search terms related to HIV, TPT and tuberculosis disease incidence were used. The Boolean operator ‘OR’ was used within each group and the Boolean operator ‘AND’ among the groups. Table 1 displays the descriptors used according to the application of their respective acronym.

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Table 1. Descriptors found through automatic and manual searches.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0330208.t001

The search was carried out on September 1, 2024 in the following databases: PubMed via Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE), Excerpta Medica Database (EMBASE), Latin American and Caribbean Literature in Health Sciences (LILACS), SciVerse Scopus (SCOPUS) and Web of Science, accessed via the journal portal of the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES). These databases were selected due to their extensive coverage and relevance to the subject under investigation, to enhance the representativeness and validity of the evidence incorporated into this review. The detailed search strategies tailored to each of the defined databases are provided in the Supporting Information (S2 Table).

Inclusion and exclusion criteria

Eligible studies included prospective or retrospective cohorts of PLHIV who received or not TPT and were monitored for subsequent tuberculosis incidence, irrespective of language and publication year.

We excluded studies based on the following criteria (details on the reason for exclusion of each article considered for full reading are provided in S3 Table): other types of study (reviews, case reports, clinical trials, cross-sectional studies, or other non-cohort designs); conference abstracts (conference abstracts were excluded due to limited methodological detail and unavailability of full data); subject-obstacle (studies that did not clearly involve PLHIV, or that did not assess tuberculosis incidence as an outcome after TPT initiation); and gray literature (documents from the gray literature, including reports, dissertations, and other non–peer-reviewed sources).

Duplicates were removed and two authors (JNBSJ and GCL) independently selected the studies by reading the titles and abstracts of the studies identified, using the Rayyan QCRI [16].

If there were disagreements in the evaluations of the articles, a third author (QRF) was consulted. The final sample was selected by reading all the material. In cases where multiple publications of a study or cohort were identified, the publications with the most recent data were included. Deepl platform was used to translate abstracts from languages other than Portuguese and English, to guarantee the eligibility of the titles selected.

Data extraction

Using a standardized data extraction form, four authors (JNBSJ, GCL, QRF and LKAA) extracted information from the studies (first author, year of publication, country of study, period of analysis, study setting, objective, study population, eligibility criteria for TPT and effectiveness of TPT on the incidence to active tuberculosis).

The information extracted from the studies was organized in a Google Sheets spreadsheet, ensuring online accessibility and allowing collaboration among the authors in real time. All steps and information extracted from the studies underwent double validation (JNBSJ and GCL).

Meta-analysis and statistical analysis

Studies reporting hazard ratios (HRs) for tuberculosis incidence among PLHIV who received TPT were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis models, prioritizing the most adjusted estimates when available. Effect measures were log-transformed (logHR) to ensure distributional symmetry and to allow proper combination of effect sizes. The meta-analysis was conducted using the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) method to estimate between-study heterogeneity (τ²). This model was selected due to the expected clinical and methodological variability among the study populations. The pooled HR and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated, and heterogeneity was assessed using the I² statistic.

Studies were stratified by age group (adults and children) to explore potential sources of heterogeneity, as per protocol. Subgroup differences were tested using the Q-test for heterogeneity between groups. In addition, meta-regression analyses were performed to formally assess whether the effect of TPT on tuberculosis incidence varied by age group and ART use. The age group variable (children vs. adults) showed a statistically significant interaction with the estimated effect size.

A forest plot was constructed to visualize the pooled effect, and a funnel plot was used to assess potential publication bias through visual inspection. Due to the inclusion of subgroups in the meta-analysis model, Egger’s regression test was not applied, as it is not appropriate for models including subgroups. All statistical analyses were conducted using R (version 4.5.0) with the meta and metafor packages.

Assessment of the methodological quality of the studies included in the review

To evaluate the methodological quality of the included studies, we used the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) [17]. This tool, commonly applied in cohort studies, assesses three domains: selection of the exposed and non-exposed cohorts (maximum of four stars), comparability of the cohorts (maximum of two stars), and assessment of outcomes (maximum of three stars), with one star awarded for each item adequately fulfilled. Two authors (QRF and LKAA) independently conducted the quality assessment, and any discrepancies were resolved through consultation with a third author (JNBSJ). No studies were excluded based on the methodological quality assessment. Detailed information regarding this evaluation is available in the Supporting Information (S4 Table), presenting the full results.

Ethical aspects

Ethical approval was not required as this study used publicly available data.

Results

The search across the selected databases yielded a total of 8,330 documents. After excluding duplicates, we included 34 [18–51] studies published between 1999 and 2024. The flowchart of the steps taken to include the studies can be seen in Fig 1. Table 2 presents the information and synthesis of the main results of the studies selected for this systematic review.

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Table 2. Information and synthesis of the main results of the studies selected for the systematic review.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0330208.t002

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Fig 1. PRISMA flowchart.

Source: created from the model by Page et al. [14].

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0330208.g001

The 34 articles were published between 1999 and 2024, with 82% conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa: Ethiopia contributed with 13 studies [18,23,27,29,3134,37,40,42,44,45], South Africa with five [24,26,39,49,50], Kenya with three [21,41,46], Tanzania with three [25,35,41], Uganda with two [22,41], Botswana with one [47] and Zambia with one [20]. In addition, Brazil contributed with three studies [19,28,43] and Spain with one [48], the United States with one [51], Hong Kong with one [36], India with one [30], and Indonesia with one [38] contributed with 1 study each. S1 Fig (Supplementary Information) shows the geographical distribution of the studies. Only one study [18] reported a cohort using rifapentine + isoniazid, in addition to isoniazid alone, all other cohorts used isoniazid TPT. Their settings feature a variety of ART or HIV centers, ranging from clinics to hospitals, reference centers, and specialized health units. All reported a risk reduction of TB, although with varying degrees of effect.

The random-effects meta-analysis included 13 studies evaluating the protective effect of the intervention in tuberculosis incidence, 11 conducted in adults and two in children. The forest plot visually displays a pooled HR of 0.36 (95% CI: 0.27–0.48), indicating a consistent protective effect across most studies, despite substantial heterogeneity (I² = 87.7%, τ² = 0.1613, p < 0.001).

Influence analysis identified four outlier studies: Saito et al. [41] (Cook’s d = 0.13), Golub et al. [50] (Cook’s d = 0.03), Atey et al. [32] (Cook’s d = 0.009), and Russom et al. [24] (Cook’s d = 0.29). After excluding these studies, heterogeneity was substantially reduced (I² = 43%, τ² = 0.0488), with a resulting 63% reduction in the risk of tuberculosis incidence following preventive treatment (HR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.28–0.48). Although the studies by Maokola et al. [25] and Frigati et al. [49] demonstrated high influence, their exclusion did not meaningfully change the overall pooled HR (Fig 2).

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Fig 2. Forest plot of hazard ratios for incidence to active tuberculosis among people living with HIV undergoing preventive therapy, stratified by age group.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0330208.g002

Subgroup analysis

There were stronger protective effects in children compared to adults (p = 0.01, Fig 2). Among adults, seven studies indicated a median risk reduction of 56% (pooled HR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.37–0.53), with low between-study heterogeneity (I² = 21.3%). The study by Maokola et al. [25] in Tanzania contributed the largest weight to the analysis (32.0%) and reported a consistent 52% risk reduction (HR: 0.48; 95% CI: 0.40–0.58). In contrast, Beshaw et al. [29] in Ethiopia demonstrated the most pronounced protective effect (92% reduction, HR: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.02–0.37), although with lower precision, accounting for 3.1% of the weight. Such variability may reflect regional differences in intervention implementation or underlying population characteristics (Fig 2).

In children, the two available studies demonstrated a markedly higher protective effect, with a pooled hazard ratio of 0.18 (95% CI: 0.09–0.37), corresponding to an 82% reduction in the risk of tuberculosis. Kebede et al. [27] in Ethiopia reported an 87% reduction (HR: 0.13; 95% CI: 0.04–0.42), while Frigati et al. [49] in South Africa observed a 78% reduction (HR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.09–0.53). The complete homogeneity between pediatric studies (I² = 0%) reinforces the robustness of this protective effect (Fig 2).

No significant difference in the protective effect of TPT was found among studies according to ART use (p > 0.05) in the meta-regression analysis.

Quality of the studies included in the review

The methodological quality scores using the NOS [17] ranged from three to eight points, with a maximum possible score of nine. The majority of studies (n = 33) were classified as having a moderate or low risk of methodological or reporting bias (S4 Table).

Specifically, 18 studies [18,19,22,24,25,3033,36,37,3941,4346] scored seven or eight points and were therefore classified as having a low risk of bias. Sixteen studies [20,21,23,26,27,29,34,35,38,42,4751] scored four, five, or six points and were considered to have a moderate risk of bias, while only one study was classified as having a high risk of bias [28], with a score of 3/9 (S4 Table).

Fig 3 shows the funnel plot of the 9 studies included in the meta-analysis. Visually, no evident asymmetry was observed among the points, suggesting a low likelihood of publication bias.

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Fig 3. Funnel plot for assessing potential publication bias among studies included in the meta-analysis on tuberculosis incidence risk among people living with HIV/AIDS after tuberculosis preventive treatment.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0330208.g003

Each blue dot represents a study included in the meta-analysis. The vertical dashed line indicates the pooled hazard ratio (log-transformed), and the diagonal lines represent the 95% confidence limits expected in the absence of bias.

Discussion

This systematic review and metanalysis of observational cohort studies reinforces the effectiveness of TPT in real-world settings, showing a 60% overall risk reduction, ranging from 50 to 92%. Our study corroborates the findings of previous meta-analyses that have evaluated the efficacy of TPT in reducing the incidence of active tuberculosis among PLHIV, using data solely from mathematical models [10] and clinical trials [11]. Additionally, our global results align with the protective effect observed in Ethiopian programmatic settings [12], who reported a 74% TB risk reduction among PLHIV receiving ART with IPT. This consistency across diverse contexts strengthens the case for TPT’s broad applicability beyond controlled research environments. To our knowledge, our study is the first to explore age-specific differences on a global scale.

The consistency of the protective effect of TPT, even in the presence of initial heterogeneity across studies reinforces the robustness of this review’s findings. Through sensitivity analysis, four studies with high statistical impact were identified and excluded, without compromising the direction or magnitude of the estimated association. This stability suggests that despite contextual and methodological variations across studies, the benefit of TPT remains clear and reproducible, reinforcing its relevance for practice in diverse settings.

The risk of rapid incidence to active tuberculosis is higher in children than in adults, mainly in children under five [52], raising special concern in this age group. The greater magnitude of TPT protective effect found in children living with HIV in the present review may be due to the higher initial risk but also to earlier intervention, lower burden of comorbidities, or better treatment adherence when supervised, as suggested in household contacts [53].

Strong protection in high-burden countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa support the hypothesis of more intense protection in higher-risk populations. However, there was great heterogeneity in the effect even among the high-burden countries. According to previous studies, this variability may be attributed to differences in study design, populations assessed, TPT implementation strategies, ART adherence, and individual immunological profiles, including hemoglobin levels, CD4 + T cell counts, and viral load, rather than differences between countries alone [19,54]. It was beyond the scope of the current study to analyze the reasons for heterogeneity.

Operational challenges, such as difficulties in ruling out active tuberculosis before starting TPT, fear of adverse reactions, limited adherence to guidelines and lack of drugs, have been noted as possible barriers to the effective implementation of TPT [20,21,46,55]. These limitations may partially explain the heterogeneity observed and suggest that the protective effect of TPT could be even greater in the absence of such restrictions.

In our meta-analysis, no significant association was found between tuberculosis incidence and ART use among individuals who underwent TPT. This suggests that the protective effect of TPT persists regardless of ART status. Nonetheless, this finding should be interpreted with caution, as only a few studies included participants not on ART or clearly reported ART status as an inclusion criterion [44,45].

Our review also points out the lack of knowledge on TPT protection in low-burden settings, and to the paucity of comparison of the effectiveness of different TPT regimens. Apart from one study [18], all others were cohorts of isoniazid TPT.

One of the limitations of this review is the residual heterogeneity among studies involving adults (I² = 21.3%), which may reflect differences in eligibility criteria, TPT regimens, or the quality of active tuberculosis screening. Furthermore, the smaller number of pediatric studies limits more detailed subgroup analyses and points to the need for additional research focused on children. Factors such as immune status and interaction with ART should be investigated in future studies to optimize prevention strategies.

This study not only contributes to the understanding of the dynamics associated with tuberculosis-HIV co-infection, but also provides subsidies to improve global strategies for the prevention and control of tuberculosis among PLHIV, with an emphasis on an integrated and evidence-based approach. Additionally, the consistency of the findings, even after the exclusion of influential studies in the sensitivity analysis, reinforces the robustness and reliability of the estimated effect.

Conclusion

This systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies provides evidence of the effectiveness of TPT in reducing the incidence of active tuberculosis among PLHIV, with conmore pronounced benefits observed in children. Although some variability was observed among adult studies, the overall findings confirm the protective benefit previously demonstrated in clinical trials and show the feasibility of this strategy. These results reinforce global recommendations for broad implementation and scale up of TPT among PLHIV and highlight the importance of age-specific strategies.

Finally, the expanded implementation of TPT, particularly among pediatric populations, may contribute significantly to global tuberculosis elimination goals.

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