Figures
Abstract
Background
Climate change is widely recognised to threaten human health, wellbeing and livelihoods, including through its effects on the emergence, spread and burdens of climate–and water-sensitive infectious diseases. However, the scale and mechanisms of the impacts are uncertain and it is unclear whether existing forecasting capacities will foster successful local-level adaptation planning, particularly in climate vulnerable regions in developing countries. The purpose of this scoping review was to characterise and map priority climate- and water-sensitive diseases, map existing forecasting and surveillance systems in climate and health sectors and scope out the needs and potential to develop integrated climate-driven early warning forecasting systems for long-term adaptation planning and interventions in the south Asia region.
Methods
We searched Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus and PubMed using title, abstract and keywords only for papers focussing on climate-and water-sensitive diseases and explicit mention of either forecasting or surveillance systems in south Asia. We conducted further internet search of relevant national climate adaptation plans and health policies affecting disease management. We identified 187 studies reporting on climate-sensitive diseases and information systems in the south Asia context published between 1992 and 2024.
Results
We found very few robust, evidenced-based forecasting systems for climate- and water- sensitive infectious diseases, which suggests limited operationalisation of decision-support tools that could inform actions to reduce disease burdens in the region. Many of the information systems platforms identified focussed on climate-sensitive vector-borne disease systems, with limited tools for water-sensitive diseases. This reveals an opportunity to develop tools for these neglected disease groups. Of the 34 operational platforms identified across the focal countries, only 13 (representing 38.2%) are freely available online and all were developed and implemented by the human health sector. Tools are needed for other south Asian countries (Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan) where the risks of infectious diseases are predicted to increase substantially due to climate change, drought and shifts in human demography and use of ecosystems.
Citation: Asaaga FA, Tomude ES, Rickards NJ, Hassall R, Sarkar S, Purse BV (2024) Informing climate-health adaptation options through mapping the needs and potential for integrated climate-driven early warning forecasting systems in South Asia—A scoping review. PLoS ONE 19(10): e0309757. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309757
Editor: Md Nazirul Islam Sarker, International University of Business Agriculture and Technology, BANGLADESH
Received: March 12, 2024; Accepted: August 13, 2024; Published: October 24, 2024
Copyright: © 2024 Asaaga et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Data Availability: All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting information files.
Funding: The research was funded by NERC as part of National Capability. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Introduction
Amidst the current and projected impacts of global climate change and longstanding water securitisation concerns, there is widespread consensus that context-specific and targeted adaptation interventions are required at all scales to alleviate risks to human health, wellbeing and livelihoods [1–4]. Recent United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties (COP26) resolutions and attendant national commitments on ecosystem restoration, add further impetus for enhancing resilience and local adaptive capacity to different climate-related risks. These risks may include alteration of ecosystems, disruption of food production and water, and consequences for livelihoods, health and wellbeing within national adaptation planning frameworks [5]. This is particularly important for low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) characterised by limited capacity to adapt to climate-related hazards (e.g., diseases and food insecurity). Available statistics indicate that about 1.2 billion Indians are directly dependent on natural ecosystems for their livelihoods and well-being, and disproportionately affected by zoonotic, vector-and water-borne infectious diseases [6–9].
Burgeoning evidence suggests that climate change is already driving the emergence and spread of a number of climate-related diseases [10], including malaria and meningitis [11–13]. The increasing availability of climate and land surface models and data at different spatio-temporal scales and its combination with health and socio-economic data within epidemiological models offers the opportunity to advance the understanding of links between climate change and health outcomes and to generate forecasts and risk information to inform preparedness [14–16]. However, it is critical to understand how climate-related risks to human health are prioritised, against the backdrop of wider climate-related stressors, and leverage scarce resources and information across environmental and health sectors to enhance preparedness, particularly in highly vulnerable regions in the south Asian and sub-Saharan African regions.
South Asia (comprising Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) is home to a quarter of the world’s population and plagued with a considerable proportion of the global burden of infectious disease [8,17–20]. There is evidence of emerging and growing threats such as Zika, dengue, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), avian influenza and more recently coronavirus disease-2019 [21]. These emerging diseases risks add to the already significant disease burden, and their impacts may accelerate in the face of climate change and other contextual factors such as land use intensification/change, inadequate surveillance, uneven health system capacity and deficiencies in water and sanitation [22]. This raises important questions related to the priority climate-and-water sensitive diseases across the region such as what hydro-climatic, health and agriculture information systems are available to stakeholders in the region to potentially inform their decision-making? Who are the key actors and knowledge holders, and what are the forecasting (disease and hydroclimate) capabilities and the opportunities to better link these across sectors? How and to what extent can development of integrated climate-driven early warning systems inform climate and disease adaptation planning and interventions in the region? The answers to these questions provide critical policy relevant insights on the targeting and prioritisation of interventions and development of integrated forecasting capabilities to bolster the adaptive capacity of affected or at-risk groups and communities in the sub-region [20,23–27].
Considerable literature has examined the effects of climate change upon the incidence or impacts of specific diseases in different socio-ecological settings [28], and climate- or hydrology-driven health and agricultural information and forecasting capabilities, mostly in the global North [29]. Yet, to date, except for a technical report on a global scan of software tools for climate-sensitive infectious diseases modelling reported between 2011 and 2021 [30], there has not been any systematic assessment of the priority climate-and-water sensitive diseases, cross-sectoral information and forecasting and surveillance capabilities, and stakeholder needs in the South Asia context. We have limited context-specific understanding of the links between hydrological systems, environmental processes, and ecosystem changes that shape disease dynamics in terms of emergence, establishment and spread, especially in the climate- vulnerable regions in South Asia [31,32]. The Indian sub-continent, for instance, is already experiencing variability in climate and the impacts of climate change, including water stress, heat waves and droughts, severe storms and flooding and associated negative consequences on health and livelihoods [9,33]. This further amplifies the need for targeted and contextually relevant interventions to bolster local-level adaptation to projected climate impacts and associated risks on human health and livelihoods [34–36].
Some successful climate-driven early warning systems have been developed for climate-and-water sensitive diseases [37–40], often delivering to sub-national, national and regional level decision-makers in disease management and focussed on a narrow range of climate-related risks. Some authors have also observed that these systems may be poorly contextualised and not penetrate to community level decision makers [30,41,42]. This highlights the wider disconnect between models, policy and interventions among the climate and epidemiological research communities [43,44]. There is, therefore, potential to integrate a broader range of data and expertise across sectors to improve the forecasting ability of early warning systems and to develop such systems for a larger range of diseases [30]. However, there also remains a disconnect between science and decision-making policy in public health and agriculture, particularly for zoonotic diseases [45]. Recent efforts to bridge these gaps for zoonotic diseases have included participatory modelling, co-production and integration of community perspectives for improved contextualisation of models [45–50]. Here, therefore, we map the priority climate-and water sensitive diseases, existing cross-sectoral forecasting capabilities, and explore the potential for developing integrated climate-driven early warning forecasting systems to support context-specific adaptation interventions for climate-and water sensitive risks to health in south Asia.
Methods
We conducted a scoping review of published literature in international refereed journals to characterise the research evidence, gaps and potential for building integrated climate-driven early warning forecasting systems following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines [51].
Search strategy—Identifying relevant studies and national policies
We developed a search protocol which generated a list of possible search strings (related to climate-and water sensitive diseases in the south Asia context) used to locate relevant published literature. A pilot search was conducted in Web of Science Core Collection using a defined search-string, based on which iterations of search terms were developed (see S1 File). This was done using the authors’ expert knowledge and reference to literature. We adopted a broad search approach to allow for a comprehensive focus and retrieval of papers across different disciplines. No timeframe restriction was applied.
For the actual systematic search, the online bibliographic databases of PubMed, Web of Science Core Collections and Scopus were used to identify relevant peer-reviewed articles, given their wide scope of scientific publications and multidisciplinary contents [52]. In addition, the reference lists of randomly selected articles were manually searched using a “snowball” technique to identify any further literature that may have been missed in the first round of searches. This was repeated until saturation of the search had been reached. The key terms applied in the search are summarised in the accompanying excel scoring sheet (see S1 File). The search results were imported into Sciwheel reference management software (https://sciwheel.com) and duplicate articles were automatically removed.
Following the literature search, we conducted an online search of relevant national climate adaptation plans, health policies and hydroclimate and health surveillance systems of the focal countries. The keywords “climate policy”, “health policy or legislation”, “climate change adaptation policy”, “hydroclimate information systems”, “health surveillance systems” “climate-sensitive diseases” and “country” were used to search documents about policies and legislations of relevance to the subject-matter. The rationale for the policy mapping exercise was to establish the extent of national policy focus on climate-and-water sensitive diseases, and the opportunities for operationalising climate-driven early warning forecasting systems. This also afforded contextual insights into respective national government priorities and investment focus concerning tackling climate-and-water sensitive human disease risks as part of national climate-health adaptation planning. National policies in this context comprise the set of guidelines and legislative enactments adopted by the focal countries to support climate change adaptation, health and development planning. National adaptation policy thus refers to a formal national policy for identifying medium- and long-term adaptation needs and developing and implementing strategies and programmes to address them [53]. Source documents were collated from relevant government ministry and departmental websites for critical analysis and assessment of gaps. Both the peer-reviewed literature and policy searches were conducted between 2nd January 2022 and 30th April 2022. A further peer-reviewed literature search was carried out (using the same keyword search terms) between 23rd January 2024 and 1st February 2024 based on which the corpus of relevant literature was updated.
Eligibility criteria.
After the systematic search, different inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select peer-reviewed articles and policy documents for the review (Fig 2). Only electronically available, full text articles and policies written in English were considered. The identified articles were screened for eligibility in two phases. In the first phase, studies that did not report on forecasting systems linked to climate and/or water sensitive diseases and south Asia were excluded. If the article title and abstract information was insufficient relative to the inclusion/exclusion criteria, we retained the article in the Sciwheel database for further full text review. At the full text review stage, we further excluded articles that were inaccessible. In total 1,091 citations and 40 national climate and health policies and reports (latter are listed in Table 1) were imported to the Sciwheel database for the review.
Data extraction and thematic analysis.
Following the selection of relevant studies, a thematic and content analysis approach was used to extract and organise relevant information based on a deductive coding protocol created in online surveys (https://www.onlinesurveys.ac.uk/). We sourced the full text of 261 relevant studies (published between 1992 and 2024) across 107 refereed journals. Using a thematic and content analysis approach [54], we extracted information across three central domains: (1) study background information (title, authorship, country/region and journal), (2) study design and methodology (sampling approach, population/sample, methods, scale), and (3) study findings and conclusions (disease/pathogen investigated, transmission pathways, climate & land use drivers, health surveillance/ information systems, disease risk factors).
Concerning the policy review, we conducted a detailed textual analysis on the sourced policy documents of relevance to climate and health linkages. We developed an initial coding framework (based on expert knowledge) comprising four thematic areas of focus for information extraction: (1) background information about the policy document (date of entry into force, aims and objectives relating to climate-health adaptation), (2) sectoral representation, affected community and scale of implementation, (3) explicit focus on priority climate-and-water sensitive diseases, and (4) gaps in policy coverage. We developed a policy-scoring matrix to assess if policy statements make mention of climate-and water sensitive diseases and rationale of focus. For instance, if a policy is scored ‘yes’ for mention any climate-sensitive disease, then another column investigates the specific interest in the said disease. Where appropriate, we analysed the results of different types of diseases, divided by their causal agent (bacteria, viruses, parasites, protozoans), disease status (emerging, epidemic or endemic in a given country or region) or by their transmission pathway (see Table 1 legend), drawing information from WHO, the US CDC and national CDCs [10,55]. We use the term driver to mean the underlying mix of antecedent epidemiological conditions that are necessary for a pathogen to emerge in susceptible population (for emerging, or epidemic diseases [56]) or for a pathogen to increase in impact in a population (for re-emerging or endemic diseases. We define climate drivers as climate-related hydrometeorological hazards that impact on the focal disease system, by affecting demographic rates of pathogens, vectors or hosts directly or indirectly via the resources that they utilise [57]. We define non-climatic drivers, as those that are unrelated to hydrometeorological hazards, such as land use and socio-economic factors, that again can act directly or indirectly on the disease system.
Results and discussion
The search strategy retrieved 1,091 (Web of Science = 998; PubMed = 59; Scopus = 34) peer-reviewed articles from three databases (Fig 1). After duplicates removal, the titles and abstracts of 862 publications were screened. From the title and abstract screening, only 261 studies were included for full-text screening and 187 articles met the inclusion criteria.
Adapted from the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) protocol by Page et al. [51].
The literature landscape
As illustrated in Fig 1, we identified 862 citations after removing duplicates, and 274 citations were selected for the abstract and full-text screening. After concluding the two-phase screening process, 187 articles published between 1992 and 2024 (120 studies between 2015 and 2024) were retained for the review, most of which were empirical studies (Figs 1 and 2A, n = 144). Of the 187 studies, 175 were country-specific and 12 covered the south Asia region (multi-country; Fig 2B). More than half of the selected studies (54.5% or n = 102 studies) came from study locations in India, followed by Bangladesh (20.9% or n = 39 studies), Sri Lanka (9.1% or n = 17 studies), Nepal (6.9% or n = 13 studies), and Pakistan (3.7% or n = 7 studies), as the top-most countries of research focus (Fig 2B). Bhutan (n = 2 studies) and Afghanistan (n = 1 study) represented the countries of the least research focus (for details of the papers, see Fig 2 and S1 Table (country distribution of included studies) in the Supplementary Information). The frequency of publications over time indicates that the number of climate-health studies from the south Asia region remained very low until 2012, followed by a steady increase, reaching maximum numbers in 2020 coincident with the publication of the Lancet 2020 seminal report dubbed the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises (Fig 2A).
(A) For relevant abstracts, trends in publication over time indicate a continued increase in the volume of literature on climate and health in south Asia region. Literature published between 1st January 1992, and 31st January 2024 were included. (B) Study countries–each represented country is mentioned in at least one study. Pie charts show the number of publications by study design (C), model type for the modelling-based papers (D) and funding source reported (E).
Concerning study design, we found a strong focus on studies adopting quantitative approaches (e.g. modelling) with 64.2% (n = 120), whereas 22.2% of studies (n = 43) employed qualitative-based (e.g. key-informant interviews, textual analysis), and 13.6% of studies (n = 24) mixed methods approaches (Fig 2C). This can be explained by the fact that most of the studies sought to quantify the degree of sensitivity of emerging infectious diseases to climate-related impacts. The flipside of this ‘quantitative’ focus, however, is the scarcity of interdisciplinary studies on the theme of climate-health, and therefore the understanding of complex socio-ecological and contextual drivers of vulnerability and adaptation to emerging climate-and water-sensitive diseases in the region. Of the 120 quantitative papers, slightly over half (52.5% or n = 63 studies) were modelling studies. Further disaggregation by modelling design indicates that 39.7% (n = 25 studies) of these 63 papers were space-time and temporal, with 28.6% (n = 18 studies) spatially focussed (Fig 2D). In terms of model type, nearly three-quarters of the modelling studies were correlative (71.4% or n = 45 studies) and 25.4% process-based (n = 16 studies), which is as expected since process-based models can only be parameterised if there is a sufficient information on the study system.
The reviewed papers were published in a diverse corpus of refereed journals, with 13 studies published in Malaria journal, 7 studies in Tropical Medicine & International Health, and 5 studies in each of Acta Tropica and Indian Journal of Medical Research. Further descriptive analysis of the citation bibliometrics indicate that 84 studies (representing 44.9% of the reviewed papers) involved international collaborations, meaning that one or more of the co-authors had their institutional affiliations outside of the reviewed countries. Of the 112 studies with funding disclosure statements, 58 studies (51.7%) were funded by external institutions based in Global North countries (US, Germany and UK) and supra-national institutions (World Health Organisation, United Nations Development Programme and World Bank) (Fig 2E). Most of the externally funded studies received support specifically from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and joint WHO/TDR/UNDP/World Bank scheme. This perhaps suggests a future window of opportunity for increased funding support for more international collaborative research in the development of climate-driven early warning decision tools to support ongoing adaptation and health interventions in the region. Most of the funded studies were from Bangladesh and India (n = 30 studies apiece), Sri Lanka (n = 9 studies) and Nepal (n = 8 students). Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bhutan tended to lag in terms of international research funding in the climate-health theme, which perhaps is suggestive of priority contexts for future international funding investment. From a country perspective, we found 36.7% of the funded studies from India (n = 11 studies) were supported by the Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR), the country’s flagship organisation for the formulation, coordination and promotion of biomedical research. A further cross-tabulation analysis of the authorship affiliation and publication year reveal a steady rise in the number of papers involving international collaborations from 2014 onwards (76 studies in total). The emphasis of climate change impacts on health in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report and 2015 Lancet Commission Report on Climate and Health may have contributed to the growing research interest on the climate-health theme in the region.
Policy prioritisation of climate-and water-sensitive diseases
To understand the degree of representation or mention of climate-and-water sensitive diseases as a function of their prioritisation in policy, we reviewed 40 key national climate adaptation and health policies of the focal countries in the South Asia region. It emerged from our textual analysis that 30 out of the 40 reviewed documents had a (human) disease focus. The remaining 5 documents had no specific disease focus. Of the 30 documents with human disease focus, 45.7% (n = 14 documents) had an explicit mention of specific human diseases of interest in the respective countries. Most the documents were general in their identification, lacking specificity on the individual climate-sensitive diseases of priority in national adaptation planning and health interventions (Table 1). As an exception, Bangladesh’s Climate Change and Sustainable Development (2000–2050) specifically identifies cholera, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue and Lymphatic filariasis as the topmost diseases of policy interest. Similarly, India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (undated) identifies malaria, visceral leishmaniasis, Japanese encephalitis, Lymphatic filariasis and dengue as the priority diseases of focus. With the notable exception of the National Health Policy 2009 (mentioning avian influenza, malaria and dengue as priority diseases of focus), relevant documents reviewed for Pakistan generally lacked clarity on specific priority climate-and-water sensitive diseases of interest. The federal system of governance in Pakistan has meant that prioritisation of specific diseases is often reflected in policy/programme documents at the sub-national level. The priority diseases climate-and water sensitive diseases of interest in the South Asia region were again reflected in the number of mentions in the policy documents (malaria (n = 14 documents), dengue (n = 9 documents), Lymphatic filariasis (n = 6 documents) and cholera (n = 5 documents), as was the case with the peer reviewed literature. The amount of evidence existing for the above-mentioned diseases, in terms of disease system understanding and societal impacts, may have influenced their translation into policy as a function of their importance in the respective countries. If this holds true, then it stands to reason that the more evidence available on the burden and impact of a specific disease or pathogen, the greater its visibility in the national policy arenas.
Priority climate-and water-sensitive diseases of interest
As evidenced in Fig 3A, most reviewed papers reported on malaria (n = 53 studies), Lymphatic filariasis (n = 46 studies), dengue (n = 41 studies) and cholera (n = 38 studies) as the topmost climate-and water sensitive diseases of research interest in the south Asia region. Of the 53 malaria focused studies, over two thirds of the papers (66.6% or n = 36 studies) had India as the focal country followed by 5 studies apiece conducted in Bangladesh and Nepal (Fig 3B). Papers related to Lymphatic filariasis were predominantly from India (n = 34 studies), Sri Lanka (n = 4 studies), Bangladesh (n = 3 studies) and Nepal (n = 3 studies) respectively. A significant proportion of the cholera-focussed studies were from Bangladesh (69.4% or n = 26 studies), reflecting the country’s high-burden status (Fig 3B). For instance, it is estimated that 66 million people are at risk of cholera in Bangladesh, with approximately 100,000 cases and 4500 deaths annually [58–61].
Bar chart shows the number of papers by disease focus (A), disease and country of focus (B), taxonomic group of reported diseases (C), and disease transmission routes (D).
Contrasting disease focus and publication trends (Figs 2A and 3B), the results show that most of the papers related to priority diseases were published within the last eight years alone (i.e., 2015 and 2023). This highlights the view that scientific research focus on climate-health theme is still nascent in the region, at least from the standpoint of publications in international refereed journals. A case in point is leptospirosis-focussed papers, which for example, had 23 of the 24 related studies published within the last seven years alone (i. e. 2015–2022). The more intense research focus may be reflective of the leptospirosis policy and programme in India which started in 2015. It is plausible that there is a longer history of operational research work in respective government departments/ institutes in the region that is not represented in the peer-reviewed literature, in which case further exploration through policy interviews would be instructive. On the taxonomic classification, the reviewed papers predominantly focussed on protozoa (n = 66 studies), followed by viruses (n = 56 studies), parasites and bacteria (n = 44 studies respectively). Most of the papers reported on vector-borne diseases as the topmost climate-sensitive diseases in the region, which mirrors the common trend in the zoonoses scholarship, where most research continues to focus on climate change effects on the distribution and spread of vector-borne infectious diseases. Interestingly, the results show an under-representation of important, neglected climate-sensitive infectious vector-borne diseases (e.g. chikungunya and visceral leishmaniasis) in terms of scientific interest despite their wide-ranging societal impacts, particularly in the rural contexts of the South Asia region. Juxtaposing the disease focus of peer-reviewed papers and policy focus appear to give the indication that there is an overemphasis on known and epidemic climate-sensitive diseases (e.g. malaria, cholera) to the relative neglect of otherwise endemic high burden neglected diseases (e.g. leptospirosis, chikungunya) that disproportionately affect poor and vulnerable communities in the region.
Environmental drivers and disease focus associations
To the extent that the dynamics of disease distribution and spread is likely to be affected by environmental change factors, it was instructive to identify the range of climate and non-climatic drivers considered in the reviewed studies. Of the studies that considered climate drivers (n = 109 papers), 59 (representing 54.1%) studies analysed 1 or 2 climate drivers with the remaining 50 studies reported on 3 or more drivers (Fig 4C). The climate drivers of disease (hydrometeorological hazards) considered in these studies included extreme weather events, seasonal rainfall, temperature, drought and wind. The most frequently addressed climate drivers were rainfall 65.1% (n = 71 studies), temperature 60.6% (n = 66 studies), hydrology (e.g., soil moisture, drought, flood extent and waterbodies) 55.1% (n = 60 studies) and climate change 48.6% (n = 53 studies) (Fig 4B). Extreme weather events (e.g., heatwaves, cyclones, and flash floods) 17.4% (n = 19 studies) and wind (mostly storm events) 5.5% (n = 6 studies) were the climate drivers least often examined as linked to focal diseases reported in respective studies (Fig 4B). The relatively limited focus on extreme weather events as a known climate driver of focal diseases reported, could be indicative of the dearth of research evidence on related drivers linked to disease burdens and/or transmission pathways in the region. It may also reflect the fact that it has been relatively easier for modellers to access input data on mean climatology than extreme events. Further cross-tabulation of climate drivers and disease investigated showed that the topmost diseases associated with seasonal rainfall pattern as a climate driver were malaria (n = 33 studies of 66), dengue (n = 28 studies) and cholera (n = 8 studies). Similarly, these diseases (malaria, dengue, and cholera) were frequently associated with temperature and climate change (see Fig 6).
(A) frequency histogram of the climate drivers considered in reviewed studies; (B) stacked bar chart showing the proportion to which focal diseases are sensitive to different climate drivers, broken down by disease taxa (note: More than one climate driver can be associated with a disease; (C) frequency of climate drivers reported; D, E, F & G represent frequency histograms of the number of climate drivers (0–6 drivers) considered in studies that focussed on viruses, bacteria, protozoa, and parasites, respectively.
For most studies of viruses, bacteria and protozoa, either 1 or no climate driver was considered within the study (Fig 4d–4g). The highest number of climate drivers (n = 6) considered for an individual disease was for malaria (protozoa, n = 2 studies), leishmaniasis (protozoa parasite, n = 2 studies), and dengue (viral, n = 2 studies), whereas Japanese encephalitis virus and avian influenza virus were each reported in single studies [62,63]. One cholera-related study had 5 associated climate drivers [22].
The non-climatic drivers examined in reviewed studies included altitude, vegetation, and land use change (n = 49 studies). Land use change and vegetation were the non-climatic drivers most often considered in studies that considered these types of drivers (Fig 5A). Cross-tabulation of non-climatic drivers and disease investigated revealed that malaria (n = 12 studies of 22), dengue (n = 8 studies) and cholera (n = 3 studies) were the topmost diseases associated with land use change as a non-climate driver (also see Fig 6). The highest proportion of non-climatic drivers (n = 3) addressed in respective studies was for protozoan-related diseases (malaria) (Fig 5F).
(A) frequency histogram of non-climatic drivers reported, (B) stacked bar chart showing the proportion to which focal diseases are sensitive to different non-climatic drivers, broken down by disease taxa (note: More than one non-climatic driver can be associated with a disease), (C) frequency histogram of number of non-climatic drivers considered in reviewed studies, D, E, F,& G frequency histograms of the number of non-climatic drivers (0–3 drivers) considered in studies that focused on viruses, bacteria, protozoa and parasites, respectively.
Displayed are selected environmental change and socio-demographic drivers (mentioned more than 5 times across the reviewed papers) in a matrix of disease lens in each reviewed paper. Disease lens and climate and non-climatic drivers are sorted to frequency of inclusion/consideration in respective studies (i.e., studies from the general climate change and rainfall driver lens respectively are most frequently focussed on malaria and dengue). Note: EWEs = Extreme Weather Events; * = soil moisture, drought, flood & waterbodies.
Only 34 studies (18.2%) considered both climate and non-climatic environmental drivers, out of which 14 were modelling focussed. While the limited consideration of both climate and non-climatic drivers within studies is suggestive of data gaps on specific drivers, it also underscores the relevance of cross-sectoral information exchange, for example from hydroclimate and health, in better prioritising and planning of appropriate disease control interventions (see Section 3.4). Models describing the impact of climate change on infectious diseases considering a narrow range of climate drivers known to affect diseases may risk large uncertainties in comprehensively understanding and projecting how climate change will affect these same diseases in the future. This lends support to McIntyre et al. [55] observation about the urgent need for disease risk models, to examine a combination of climate drivers and multiple scenarios for changes in climate impacts [64].
A small proportion of all the reviewed studies (28.3% or n = 53 studies) identified socio-demographic factors as drivers of disease emergence or spread. For example, the studies that reported on social drivers of disease transmission focussed on malaria (44.4% or n = 20 studies), dengue (33.3% or n = 15 studies), cholera (17.8% or n = 8 studies) and Lymphatic filariasis (13.3% or n = 6 studies). Of the 45 studies that considered social drivers, 73.3% of them (n = 33 studies) also included climate and 46.7% (n = 21 studies) non-climatic drivers. The limited focus on the interplay of socio-demographic factors and disease dynamics (underscored by the difficulty of obtaining socio-demographic data at the same resolution as health data) perhaps highlights a strategic research priority for better understanding the biosocial factors that shape vulnerability to climate-sensitive disease risks in the region.
Forecasting capacities to address climate-driven infectious diseases transmission and spread: Taking stock
To better understand the forecasting capacities, priorities and needs for targeted early warning and anticipatory response, it was imperative to investigate the diversity of existing national hydroclimate and disease surveillance systems available to stakeholders in the region, including sectoral focus, scale of operationalisation and priority diseases being addressed. From the analysis of the reviewed papers, only 36 studies reported on national/state level health surveillance or information systems, with just 3 studies mentioning the existence of integrated surveillance systems (i.e. linking animal and human health information) for disease prevention and control [65–67]. None of the reviewed studies reported on linkage of health and environmental information systems to inform disease management in the reviewed countries. This indicates limited information systems in the reviewed countries, possibly reflecting the relative dearth of evidence on forecasting systems. It therefore follows that further investigation through targeted key informant interviews and workshops remains necessary to better understand and assess forecasting capabilities and opportunities to link information and models across sectors.
The evidence for existing hydroclimate and disease surveillance capacities in the reviewed countries is summarised in Fig 7. To better understand the needs for hydroclimate surveillance for different diseases, we used identified links between climatic drivers (different hydrometeorological hazards) and diseases outlined in Mora et al [10] with further detailed results available in S3–S6 Tables. Whereas some of the identified information systems have yet to be fully operationalised and thus are not mature to assess in terms of impact, they present a promising outlook and a fair representation of the existing capabilities and avenues for improvement, particularly in terms of strategic emphasis, sectoral focus and diseases being prioritised for interventions (S3–S6 Tables). As evidenced in Fig 7, our inventory of existing information systems indicate that the largest number of hydroclimate and health information systems are found in India (n = 18 platforms), followed by Bangladesh (n = 4 platforms) and Pakistan (n = 3 platforms), which somewhat reflects their socio-economic capacity (as upper middle-income nations) and investment priorities. Afghanistan and Sri Lanka had the least number of information systems (1 apiece). In Afghanistan, the prevailing political tensions, which has gravely impacted on national infrastructural investments including health and metrological systems [61,68–70], may provide part of the explanation for this lack of evidence. Besides, the restricted composition of the WHO South Asia region (excluding Afghanistan and Pakistan) may impact on broader regional cooperation in terms of information exchange and capacity building. Moreover, almost all the identified information systems (91.2% or n = 31 platforms) had national orientation and a seemingly limited disease focus, suggesting that few of the countries have their own surveillance systems to monitor and track the outbreak of any new diseases.
Panels show all potential drivers (hydrometeorological hazards) and links with priority diseases obtained from Mora et al. [10] in grey. Orange nodes indicate that information is available for a driver or disease from existing information systems and orange links highlight where information may be available to explore the relationship between a driver and disease. Green links highlight instances where a link between a driver and disease was explored in a reviewed study and green nodes highlight instances where national information systems have fed into a reviewed study.
In terms of cross-sectoral implementation, a large majority of the information systems are sectorally driven in terms of operationalisation, which poses a risk for late detection and cross-sectoral engagement with preparedness and response infrastructure. To the extent that most of the identified hydro-climate systems utilise hydro-metrological data highlights a potential for use in establishing relationships with health surveillance and information systems, where corresponding disease data exist. In this sense, it is imperative that hydro-climate forecasting outputs are available on timescales relevant to disease surveillance. Altogether, the foregoing highlights varying capabilities and sectoral representation, underscoring the need for crosscutting integrated efforts (through the development of cross-sectoral early warning systems and tools) to tackle risks and vulnerabilities as well as support long term adaptation planning, particularly in highly vulnerable countries like Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Bangladesh.
Developing climate-driven early warning systems to support disease adaptation and resilience building interventions—A research agenda
Hydro-climatic and disease information systems are increasingly recognised as vital for successful adaptation in the public health sectors in the face of climate change, through providing timely and tailored information to support targeted decision-making and resilience building interventions in highly vulnerable regions [49,71–73]. While conventional sectorally-driven hydrological, climate and disease early warning systems are useful, they remain inadequate for comprehensive capture of complex disease dynamics that straddle the human, animal, and environment interface. This necessitates cross-sectoral efforts to develop integrated climate-driven early warning systems that leverage existing meteorological and health surveillance capacities across scale. Yet, much of the research and efforts toward improving the delivery and use of hydroclimatic information and disease surveillance capabilities in the South Asia region has at best been fragmented and sectorally focussed [66,73–77]. The operationalisation of the One Health approach (which recognises the interconnectedness of human health, animal health and the environment, and advocates for integrated, holistic and transdisciplinary approaches to reduce disease impacts) is seen as a plausible vehicle for developing integrated solutions that support disease control interventions at scale [20,50,78].
In this paper, we considered the question of what is needed to develop integrated climate-driven early warning systems for climate-and water-sensitive diseases to support climate-health, health adaptation, and risk management needs at scale. Consistent with the notion that cross-sectoral collaboration is needed to better inform effective climate-health interventions, we argue that there is a need for a paradigm shift in research focus from a single pathogen/disease focus to multiple disease stressors, along with their burdens and impacts, to support the development and targeting of early warning systems. To our knowledge, this scoping review is the first of its kind to characterise the state of the art on climate-health scholarship in the South Asia region, highlighting the priority climate-and water-sensitive diseases and existing cross-sectoral information systems that could be linked in the future to better understand and predict how climate variability and climate change precipitate health impacts. We found that there exist marked differences in research foci in the region and existing information systems capabilities, with overrepresentation of evidence from India and Bangladesh compared to the lesser developed and highly vulnerable countries (Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Bhutan), which are lagging in terms of research, and hydrological and surveillance infrastructural capacity. In Afghanistan, for example, research evidence on climate-health linkages is largely focussed on vector-borne diseases (malaria and dengue) [21,61,69,79,80], despite the potential climate change impacts on cholera, which is a priority epidemic disease of concern (128,278 cases reported between 2000 and 2017) in the country [81].
We thus put forward five directions for future research and operationalisation.
- To guarantee more robust evidence on disease burdens and impacts, we need further research on priority climate-and water sensitive diseases particularly in least represented and data poor contexts such as Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan. As evidenced above, there is a disproportionate representation of research focus on India and Bangladesh which has meant a dearth of evidence on other countries to support long-term adaptation planning. Nonetheless, it is noteworthy that poor national security in some of the focal countries (e.g., Afghanistan) hampers the ability to undertake fieldwork to assess adaptation options and requirements [82].
- Studies focussing on the social determinants of climate impacts on health are underrepresented among the topic areas in the literature on the South Asia region. Given that patterns of vulnerability and adaptation to climate induced disease risks and associated impacts manifests within dynamic socio-cultural and political contexts, it is critical to understand the context of at–risk populations, drivers of their vulnerability, and adaptive strategies to better inform the contextualisation and tailoring of early warning support systems for bolstering resilience and long-term adaptation. This could be delivery of fine scale vulnerability maps and risk information that integrate understanding of social vulnerability and improves targeting of interventions.
- Better understanding of the different information needs, opportunities, and barriers for cross-sector information-sharing and analytics is needed across the region to support the development of locally appropriate climate-driven early warning systems for meaningful adaptation planning at the relevant scales. The paucity of studies assessing cross-sectoral forecasting and surveillance capacities and requirements calls for better inclusion of underrepresented countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan) in future research. International funding support to address these questions, particularly in the underrepresented countries, and strengthening regional research networks could be a good starting point.
- The non-accessibility of data and/or barriers to information-sharing between cross-sectoral actors remains a key challenge, as data is treated as proprietary. This calls for greater sensitisation of data owners and curators, and disciplinary experts in climate and epidemiology, about cross-sectoral information-sharing and improved mechanisms for fostering these and needs for developing integrated early-warning systems and decision support tools to better inform disease management and long-term adaptation planning, learning from demonstration cases in other contexts.
- There is also a need to create improved information services in which producers and end-users of early warning information and decision-support tools interact to identify needs and priorities for reducing vulnerabilities and strengthening resilience to climate induce disease risks [50,83]. This suggests a need-based tailored information service for at-risk populations in the region. In doing so, co-production approaches remain an important aspect of tailoring hydroclimatic and disease information systems to stakeholder needs and priorities.
Notwithstanding the breadth and the wide regional coverage of the evidence reviewed, this scoping review is subject to some limitations. First, scoping reviews have an inherent limitation due to the focus on the breadth rather than depth of information on the subject-matter. As such, meta-analysis of the evidence base (including quality appraisal) is generally not conducted in a scoping review [84]. Second, owing to time and COVID-19-related constraints, it was not possible to engage directly with stakeholders about their needs and priorities as well as to ascertain capabilities and data access to enable a joined-up approach through key informant interviews or multi-stakeholder workshops. Third, the reliance on English-language peer-reviewed papers and national climate adaptation plans and health policies might have resulted in missing some relevant policy documents (e.g. regional/state policies) and papers published in restricted local journals and/or local languages. Moreover, although we focussed on policies current at the time of review, we cannot dismiss the possibility that we missed new documents or that a policy was updated before the review was completed. This scoping review nonetheless showcases some critical patterns in existing climate-health scholarship and related forecasting and surveillance systems in South Asia which have resulted in a number of key actionable steps for developing integrated climate-driven early warning infrastructure towards supporting long-term adaptation planning and interventions.
Supporting information
S1 Table. Summary characteristics of reviewed studies.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309757.s002
(DOCX)
S2 Table. Annotated key studies reviewed by focal diseases of interest.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309757.s003
(DOCX)
S3 Table. Overview of the main hydroclimate and health information systems and programs in the focal countries in south Asia.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309757.s004
(DOCX)
S4 Table. Overview of forecasting ability of National Meteorological Departments.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309757.s005
(DOCX)
S5 Table. Overview of the health information systems and programs in the focal countries in south Asia.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309757.s006
(DOCX)
S6 Table. Summary of studies where links were explored between driver and disease or national level health information systems feed into a study.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309757.s007
(DOCX)
S7 Table. Summary of all studies identified in the literature search.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309757.s008
(DOCX)
References
- 1. Sudeep AB, Mandar P, Ghodke YK, George RP, Gokhale MD. Vector competence of two Indian populations of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquitoes to three West Nile virus strains. Journal of Vector Borne Diseases. 2015 Jul 1;52(3):185–92. pmid:26418647
- 2. Anwar A, Anwar S, Muhammad AY, Nawaz F, Hyder S, Noman KH, et al. Climate change and infectious diseases: evidence from highly vulnerable countries. Iranian Journal of Public Health. 2019 Dec;48(12):2187. pmid:31993386
- 3. Bhandari D, Bi P, Sherchand JB, Dhimal M, Hanson-Easey S. Climate change and infectious disease research in Nepal: are the available prerequisites supportive enough to researchers?. Acta tropica. 2020 Apr 1;204:105337. pmid:31930962
- 4. Sarker AR, Paul S, Zohara F, Hossain Z, Zabeen I, Chowdhury SZ, et al. Economic burden of dengue in urban Bangladesh: A societal perspective. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2023 Dec 5;17(12):e0011820. pmid:38051738
- 5.
Pörtner H.O., Roberts D.C., Adams H., Adler C., Aldunce P., Ali E., et al. Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (p. 3056). Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056 pp.
- 6. Shrestha SL, Shrestha IL, Shrestha N, Joshi RD. Statistical modeling of health effects on climate-sensitive variables and assessment of environmental burden of diseases attributable to climate change in Nepal. Environmental Modeling & Assessment. 2017 Oct; 22:459–72.
- 7. Nilgiriwala KS. Basis of science policies for infectious disease challenges in India. Indian Journal of Public Health. 2018 Jul 1;62(3):193–6. pmid:30232968
- 8. Nagavarapu S, Singh R, Vaish S, Gogia SB. Disease burden estimation of lymphatic filariasis in an endemic area. Lymphatic Research and Biology. 2022 Jun 1;20(3):319–24. pmid:34619046
- 9. Mishra MM, Sahu N. Climate and disease vulnerability analysis in blocks of Kalahandi District of Odisha, India. Indian Journal of Public Health. 2022 Jan 1;66(1):20–6. pmid:35381709
- 10. Mora C, McKenzie T, Gaw IM, Dean JM, von Hammerstein H, Knudson TA, et al. Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change. Nature climate change. 2022 Sep;12(9):869–75. pmid:35968032
- 11. Ryan SJ, Lippi CA, Zermoglio F. Shifting transmission risk for malaria in Africa with climate change: a framework for planning and intervention. Malaria Journal. 2020 Dec; 19:1–4.
- 12. Sarkar S, Gangare V, Singh P, Dhiman RC. Shift in potential malaria transmission areas in India, using the fuzzy-based climate suitability malaria transmission (FCSMT) model under changing climatic conditions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2019 Sep;16(18):3474. pmid:31540493
- 13.
Yang Y, Chen Z. Severe Situation of Human Impact on Climate Change, Impact on Infectious Diseases and Solutions. InSHS Web of Conferences 2023 (Vol. 152, p. 05001). EDP Sciences.
- 14. Roy M, Bouma M, Dhiman RC, Pascual M. Predictability of epidemic malaria under non-stationary conditions with process-based models combining epidemiological updates and climate variability. Malaria Journal. 2015 Dec; 14:1–4.
- 15. Hess J, Boodram LL, Paz S, Ibarra AM, Wasserheit JN, Lowe R. Strengthening the global response to climate change and infectious disease threats. bmj. 2020 Oct 26;371. pmid:33106244
- 16. Yadav SK, Akhter Y. Statistical modeling for the prediction of infectious disease dissemination with special reference to COVID-19 spread. Frontiers in public health. 2021 Jun 16; 9:645405. pmid:34222166
- 17.
Cruz, R.V., H. Harasawa, M. Lal, S. Wu, Y. Anokhin, B. Punsalmaa, et al, 2007: Asia. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 469–506.
- 18. Chua PL, Huber V, Ng CF, Seposo XT, Madaniyazi L, Hales S, et al. Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health. 2021 Jul 1;5(7): e436–45. pmid:34245714
- 19. Yang X, Quam MB, Zhang T, Sang S. Global burden for dengue and the evolving pattern in the past 30 years. Journal of travel medicine. 2021 Dec;28(8): taab146.
- 20. Naseem Z, Ayub M, Shah SA, Ali SA, Abidi SH. Viral infections in Pakistan: prevalence, factors affecting spread, and recommendations for control.
- 21. Dhimal M, Bhandari D, Dhimal ML, Kafle N, Pyakurel P, Mahotra N, et al. Impact of climate change on health and well-being of people in Hindu Kush Himalayan region: A narrative review. Frontiers in Physiology. 2021 Aug 6;12:651189. pmid:34421631
- 22. Ahmed T, Zounemat-Kermani M, Scholz M. Climate change, water quality and water-related challenges: a review with focus on Pakistan. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020 Nov;17(22):8518. pmid:33212957
- 23. Daisy SS, Saiful Islam AK, Akanda AS, Faruque AS, Amin N, Jensen PK. Developing a forecasting model for cholera incidence in Dhaka megacity through time series climate data. Journal of water and health. 2020 Apr 1;18(2):207–23. pmid:32300093
- 24. Patil S, Pandya S. Forecasting dengue hotspots associated with variation in meteorological parameters using regression and time series models. Frontiers in public health. 2021 Nov 26; 9:798034. pmid:34900929
- 25. Pley C, Evans M, Lowe R, Montgomery H, Yacoub S. Digital and technological innovation in vector-borne disease surveillance to predict, detect, and control climate-driven outbreaks. The Lancet Planetary Health. 2021 Oct 1;5(10):e739–45. pmid:34627478
- 26. Warnasekara J, Agampodi S, NR A. SARIMA and ARDL models for predicting leptospirosis in Anuradhapura district Sri Lanka. PLoS One. 2022 Oct 13;17(10): e0275447. pmid:36227833
- 27. Shrestha UB, Lamsal P, Ghimire SK, Shrestha BB, Dhakal S, Shrestha S, et al. Climate change‐induced distributional change of medicinal and aromatic plants in the Nepal Himalaya. Ecology and Evolution. 2022 Aug;12(8): e9204. pmid:35991283
- 28. Dutta S, Balasubramaniam R, Jagtap M, Awate P, Kulkarni N, Danish M, et al. A pilot study on assessing the effect of climate on the incidence of vector borne disease at Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad area, Maharashtra. MAUSAM. 2021 Oct 28;72(2):399–414.
- 29. Ceglar A, Toreti A. Seasonal climate forecast can inform the European agricultural sector well in advance of harvesting. NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2021 Aug 3;4(1):42.
- 30. Stewart-Ibarra AM, Ryan SJ, Lowe R. Landscape mapping of software tools for climate-sensitive infectious disease modelling. Wellcome Trust, Jan 24, 2022. https://wellcome.org/reports/landscape-mapping-software-tools-climate-sensitive-infectious-disease-modelling (Accessed: 20/10/2023).
- 31. Misslin R, Telle O, Daudé E, Vaguet A, Paul RE. Urban climate versus global climate change—what makes the difference for dengue?. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 2016 Oct;1382(1):56–72. pmid:27197685
- 32. Wangdi K, Gatton ML, Kelly GC, Clements AC. Prevalence of asymptomatic malaria and bed net ownership and use in Bhutan, 2013: a country earmarked for malaria elimination. Malaria Journal. 2014 Dec; 13:1–0.
- 33. Kakarla SG, Caminade C, Mutheneni SR, Morse AP, Upadhyayula SM, Kadiri MR, et al. Lag effect of climatic variables on dengue burden in India. Epidemiology & Infection. 2019 Jan;147: e170. pmid:31063099
- 34. McNamara KE, Buggy L. Community-based climate change adaptation: a review of academic literature. Local Environment. 2017 Apr 3;22(4):443–60.
- 35. Kirkby P, Williams C, Huq S. Community-based adaptation (CBA): adding conceptual clarity to the approach, and establishing its principles and challenges. Climate and Development. 2018 Oct 3;10(7):577–89.
- 36. Shammin M.R., Haque A.E. and Faisal I.M., 2022. A framework for climate resilient community-based adaptation. Climate change and community resilience, pp.11–30.
- 37. Lowe R, Bailey TC, Stephenson DB, Graham RJ, Coelho CA, Carvalho MS, et al. Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil. Computers & Geosciences. 2011 Mar 1;37(3):371–81.
- 38. Dione C, Talib J, Bwaka AM, Kamga AF, Fouda AA, Hirons L, et al. Improved sub-seasonal forecasts to support preparedness action for meningitis outbreak in Africa. Climate Services. 2022 Dec 1; 28:100326. pmid:36504524
- 39. Bett BK, Mariner JC. Risk-based decision-support framework for prevention and control of Rift Valley fever epidemics in eastern Africa. Climate Services, 28, p.100326.
- 40. Das N, Sagar A, Bhattacharjee R, Agnihotri AK, Ohri A, Gaur S. Time series forecasting of temperature and turbidity due to global warming in river Ganga at and around Varanasi, India. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 2022 Sep;194(9):617. pmid:35900701
- 41. Malavige GN, Jeewandara C, Ghouse A, Somathilake G, Tissera H. Changing epidemiology of dengue in Sri Lanka—Challenges for the future. PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 2021 Aug 19;15(8):e0009624. pmid:34411101
- 42. Anoopkumar AN, Aneesh EM. A critical assessment of mosquito control and the influence of climate change on mosquito-borne disease epidemics. Environment, Development and Sustainability. 2022 Jun;24(6):8900–29.
- 43. Leach M, Scoones I. The social and political lives of zoonotic disease models: narratives, science and policy. Social science & medicine. 2013 Jul 1;88:10–7. pmid:23702205
- 44. Purse BV, Golding N. Tracking the distribution and impacts of diseases with biological records and distribution modelling. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society. 2015 Jul 1;115(3):664–77.
- 45. Purse BV, Darshan N, Kasabi GS, Gerard F, Samrat A, George C, et al. Predicting disease risk areas through co-production of spatial models: The example of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India’s forest landscapes. PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 2020 Apr 7;14(4): e0008179. pmid:32255797
- 46. Scoones I, Jones K, Lo Iacono G, Redding DW, Wilkinson A, Wood JL. Integrative modelling for One Health: pattern, process and participation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2017 Jul 19;372(1725):20160164. pmid:28584172
- 47. Bostan N, Javed S, Eqani SA, Tahir F, Bokhari H. Dengue fever virus in Pakistan: effects of seasonal pattern and temperature change on distribution of vector and virus. Reviews in medical virology. 2017 Jan;27(1): e1899. pmid:27597296
- 48. Devi RR, Raju V. Information technology in morbidity management of human lymphatic filariasis—A promising tool in global programme for elimination of lymphatic filariasis. Journal of Vector Borne Diseases. 2018 Jan 1;55(1):20–5. pmid:29916444
- 49. Garza M, Mohan CV, Rahman M, Wieland B, Häsler B. The role of infectious disease impact in informing decision-making for animal health management in aquaculture systems in Bangladesh. Preventive veterinary medicine. 2019 Jun 1; 167:202–13. pmid:29625785
- 50. Asaaga FA, Young JC, Srinivas PN, Seshadri T, Oommen MA, Rahman M, et al. Co-production of knowledge as part of a OneHealth approach to better control zoonotic diseases. PLOS Global Public Health. 2022 Mar 24;2(3): e0000075. pmid:36962247
- 51. Page MJ, Moher D, Bossuyt PM, Boutron I, Hoffmann TC, Mulrow CD, et al. PRISMA 2020 explanation and elaboration: updated guidance and exemplars for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ. 2021 Mar 29;372. pmid:33781993
- 52. Asaaga FA, Young JC, Oommen MA, Chandarana R, August J, Joshi J, et al. Operationalising the “One Health” approach in India: facilitators of and barriers to effective cross-sector convergence for zoonoses prevention and control. BMC public health. 2021 Dec; 21:1–21.
- 53. Lee S, Paavola J, Dessai S. Towards a deeper understanding of barriers to national climate change adaptation policy: A systematic review. Climate Risk Management. 2022 Jan 1; 35:100414.
- 54. Braun V, Clarke V. Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative research in psychology. 2006 Jan 1;3(2):77–101.
- 55. McIntyre KM, Setzkorn C, Hepworth PJ, Morand S, Morse AP, Baylis M. Systematic assessment of the climate sensitivity of important human and domestic animals pathogens in Europe. Scientific reports. 2017 Aug 2;7(1):7134. pmid:28769039
- 56. Olson SH, Benedum CM, Mekaru SR, Preston ND, Mazet JA, Joly DO, et al. Drivers of emerging infectious disease events as a framework for digital detection. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2015 Aug;21(8):1285. pmid:26196106
- 57. Hartemink N, Vanwambeke SO, Purse BV, Gilbert M, Van Dyck H. Towards a resource‐based habitat approach for spatial modelling of vector‐borne disease risks. Biological Reviews. 2015 Nov;90(4):1151–62. pmid:25335785
- 58. Ali M, Kim DR, Yunus M, Emch M. Time series analysis of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh, during 1988–2001. Journal of health, population, and nutrition. 2013 Mar;31(1):11. pmid:23617200
- 59. Rahman Z, Rahman MA, Rashid MU, Monira S, Johura FT, Mustafiz M, et al. Vibrio cholerae transmits through water among the household contacts of cholera patients in cholera endemic coastal villages of Bangladesh, 2015–2016 (CHoBI7 Trial). Frontiers in Public Health. 2018 Aug 30; 6:238. pmid:30214899
- 60. Khan AI, Rashid MM, Islam MT, Afrad MH, Salimuzzaman M, Hegde ST, et al. Epidemiology of cholera in Bangladesh: findings from nationwide hospital-based surveillance, 2014–2018. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2020 Oct 1;71(7):1635–42. pmid:31891368
- 61. Essar MY, Siddiqui A, Head MG. Infectious diseases in Afghanistan: Strategies for health system improvement. Health Science Reports. 2023 Dec;6(12):e1775. pmid:38116172
- 62. Borah J, Dutta P, Khan SA, Mahanta J. Association of weather and anthropogenic factors for transmission of Japanese encephalitis in an endemic area of India. EcoHealth. 2013 Jun; 10:129–36. pmid:23709014
- 63. Balakrishnan A, Thekkekare RJ, Sapkal G, Tandale BV. Seroprevalence of Japanese encephalitis virus & West Nile virus in Alappuzha district, Kerala. Indian Journal of Medical Research. 2017 Jul 1;146(Suppl 1): S70–6.
- 64. Purse BV, Masante D, Golding N, Pigott D, Day JC, Ibañez-Bernal S, et al. How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America. PloS one. 2017 Oct 11;12(10): e0183583. pmid:29020041
- 65. Saha GK, Ganguly NK. Spread and endemicity of cholera in India: Factors beyond the numbers. The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2021 Dec 15;224(Supplement_7):S710–6. pmid:34550374
- 66. Pilot E, Roa R, Jena B, Kauhl B, Krafft T, Murthy GV. Towards sustainable public health surveillance in India: using routinely collected electronic emergency medical service data for early warning of infectious diseases. Sustainability. 2017 Apr 13;9(4):604.
- 67. Ehelepola ND, Ariyaratne K, Buddhadasa WM, Ratnayake S, Wickramasinghe M. A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003–2012) and lessons learned. Infectious diseases of poverty. 2015 Dec; 4:1–5.
- 68. Adimi F, Soebiyanto RP, Safi N, Kiang R. Towards malaria risk prediction in Afghanistan using remote sensing. Malaria Journal. 2010 Dec; 9:1–1.
- 69.
Leao I, Ahmed M, Kar A. Jobs from agriculture in Afghanistan. World Bank Publications; 2018 Mar 28.
- 70. Jawid A, Khadjavi M. Adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan: Evidence on the impact of external interventions. Economic Analysis and Policy. 2019 Dec 1; 64:64–82.
- 71. Upadhyayula SM, Mutheneni SR, Kumaraswamy S, Kadiri MR, Pabbisetty SK, Yellepeddi VS. Filaria Monitoring Visualization System: A Geographical Information System–Based Application to Manage Lymphatic Filariasis in Andhra Pradesh, India. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. 2012 May 1;12(5):418–27. pmid:22256792
- 72. Alonso J, Bartlett SJ, Rose M, Aaronson NK, Chaplin JE, Efficace F, et al. The case for an international patient-reported outcomes measurement information system (PROMIS®) initiative. Health and quality of life outcomes. 2013 Dec; 11:1–5.
- 73. Wijerathna T, Gunathilaka N. Time series analysis of leishmaniasis incidence in Sri Lanka: evidence for humidity-associated fluctuations. International Journal of Biometeorology. 2023 Feb;67(2):275–84. pmid:36378349
- 74. Whateley S, Palmer RN, Brown C. Seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts as innovations and the challenges of adoption by water managers. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. 2015 May 1;141(5):04014071.
- 75. Tsheten T, Gray DJ, Clements AC, Wangdi K. Epidemiology and challenges of dengue surveillance in the WHO South-East Asia Region. Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 2021 Jun;115(6):583–99. pmid:33410916
- 76. Islam S, Haque CE, Hossain S, Hanesiak J. Climate variability, dengue vector abundance and dengue fever cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh: a time-series study. Atmosphere. 2021 Jul 14;12(7):905.
- 77. Deebani W, Jan R, Shah Z, Vrinceanu N, Racheriu M. Modeling the transmission phenomena of water-borne disease with non-singular and non-local kernel. Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering. 2023 Aug 18;26(11):1294–307. pmid:36006368
- 78. Burthe SJ, Schäfer SM, Asaaga FA, Balakrishnan N, Chanda MM, Darshan N, et al. Reviewing the ecological evidence base for management of emerging tropical zoonoses: Kyasanur Forest Disease in India as a case study. PLoS neglected tropical diseases. 2021 Apr 1;15(4): e0009243. pmid:33793560
- 79. Karunasena VM, Marasinghe M, Koo C, Amarasinghe S, Senaratne AS, Hasantha R, et al. The first introduced malaria case reported from Sri Lanka after elimination: implications for preventing the re-introduction of malaria in recently eliminated countries. Malaria journal. 2019 Dec; 18:1–0.
- 80. Pramanik M, Singh P, Kumar G, Ojha VP, Dhiman RC. El Niño Southern Oscillation as an early warning tool for dengue outbreak in India. BMC Public Health. 2020 Dec; 20:1–1.
- 81.
Liu F, Kan B. Cholera Risk Assessment, Control, and Prevention. In Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in BRI Countries 2021 May 20 (pp. 15–33). Singapore: Springer Singapore.
- 82.
National Environmental Protection Agency–Afghanistan. Second national communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 2017 Dec. https://bit.ly/422CFBl (Accessed on 26/04/2023).
- 83. Hirons L, Thompson E, Dione C, Indasi VS, Kilavi M, Nkiaka E, et al. Using co-production to improve the appropriate use of sub-seasonal forecasts in Africa. Climate Services. 2021 Aug 1; 23:100246.
- 84. Tricco AC, Lillie E, Zarin W, O’brien K, Colquhoun H, Kastner M, et al. A scoping review on the conduct and reporting of scoping reviews. BMC medical research methodology. 2016 Dec; 16:1–0.