Peer Review History

Original SubmissionJune 17, 2026
Decision Letter - Mario Tortora, Editor

Dear Dr. YOO,

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Mario Tortora, Pd.D.s, M.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS One

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Additional Editor Comments:

Dear Authors,

After careful consideration of the reviewer' comments, we believe that the manuscript has the potential to make a valuable contribution to the field.

However, before it can be considered for publication, we encourage you to carefully address all the points raised by the reviewer.

In particular, we recommend strengthening the Discussion section. While the current discussion adequately summarizes your findings, it would benefit from a broader contextualization within the existing literature, highlighting the clinical implications, methodological aspects, and the relevance of your results in comparison with previously published studies.

We also encourage you to expand the discussion by considering pertinent literature, including recent articles published in the field, such as 10.1007/s11547-023-01620-x, where appropriate to your work. Integrating relevant contemporary evidence will help place your findings in a wider scientific context and improve the overall impact of the manuscript.

We look forward to receiving a thoroughly revised version together with a detailed point-by-point response addressing each reviewer comment.

Sincerely,

The Academic Editor

Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

Reviewer #1: Yes

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2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? -->?>

Reviewer #1: Yes

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3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available??>

The PLOS Data policy

Reviewer #1: Yes

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4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English??>

Reviewer #1: Yes

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Reviewer #1: This manuscript addresses an important and underexplored clinical dilemma: whether preventive coiling provides a meaningful advantage over observation for unruptured intracranial aneurysms in patients aged 80 years or older. The competing-risk Markov framework is appropriate in principle, because procedural harm, aneurysm rupture, post-rupture disability, and non-aneurysm mortality interact over a limited remaining lifespan. The analysis is unusually transparent regarding protocol amendments, source limitations, model assumptions, and the distinction between model-derived preferences and individualized treatment recommendations. The finding that observation was favored in most modeled panels is clinically interesting, but it should be interpreted as highly dependent on the selected endpoint and parameter assumptions rather than as robust evidence for conservative management.

The principal strengths are the explicit incorporation of age- and sex-specific competing mortality, the use of 10,000 probabilistic sensitivity-analysis iterations across multiple outcome scenarios, and the public availability of model code, parameter tables, and supporting outputs. Independent deterministic validation in Python and R strengthens confidence in the computational implementation. The decision to present heterogeneous post-rupture outcome estimates as separate scenarios rather than pooling nonexchangeable populations is methodologically defensible and appropriately exposes structural uncertainty. The authors also acknowledge that the apparent sex differences largely arise within demographic panels governed by differing life expectancy and competing mortality, and they consistently caution that the results are model outputs rather than direct clinical evidence.

The major concern is the clinical validity of the primary endpoint. An unweighted first-event cumulative incidence treats nonfatal treatment morbidity, treatment death, rupture-related disability, and rupture death as equivalent events, although their severity, duration, reversibility, and consequences differ substantially. Moreover, treatment morbidity appears to be retained permanently until other-cause death, without modeling recovery or changing disability over time. This structure can strongly disadvantage intervention because a front-loaded, potentially transient procedural morbidity is counted identically to permanent severe disability or death. A decision-analysis manuscript should therefore include a severity-weighted analysis, preferably using utilities or quality-adjusted life-years, or at minimum report each event component separately and examine plausible recovery trajectories. The current endpoint may be useful descriptively, but it is insufficient as the principal basis for inferring comparative clinical preference.

A second major concern is the fragility of the parameterization. Coiling morbidity and mortality are anchored to an older administrative dataset, the residual post-treatment rupture risk is fixed at 10% of the natural-history rate without adequate empirical calibration, and the post-rupture scenarios differ markedly in clinical grade, treatment status, outcome definition, and follow-up. The targeted evidence synthesis was not a systematic review and included no formal risk-of-bias or certainty assessment, while the SAC/flow-diversion and vascular-access inputs are explicitly proxy or unanchored constructs. The model also omits aneurysm size, location, morphology, growth, previous subarachnoid hemorrhage, frailty, cognitive status, and comorbidity, which are central determinants of both rupture and treatment risk. The arbitrary ±0.01 equipoise band and hierarchical threshold zones further risk converting continuous uncertainty into apparently definitive categories; continuous estimates and uncertainty intervals should remain primary, with alternative threshold analyses provided. The post hoc findings showing that coiling becomes favored in most panels when rupture risk rises or morbidity falls confirm that the central conclusion is highly assumption-sensitive.

The Introduction and Methods are detailed but overly long, and the Discussion repeats several methodological caveats that could be consolidated. The Abstract should more prominently state that the result is driven by an unweighted composite endpoint and historical treatment-risk estimates. Ethical handling is appropriate because only published aggregate data were used, and the open-data statement is a notable strength. Nevertheless, the manuscript requires substantial revision before its conclusions can be considered clinically interpretable. The authors should add severity-weighted or utility-based analyses, model temporary versus permanent morbidity, justify or recalibrate residual rupture assumptions, reduce reliance on categorical threshold zones, and present clearer component-specific outcomes. My recommendation is **major revision**.

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Reviewer #1: No

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Revision 1

We thank the Academic Editor and Reviewer for their detailed and constructive comments. We have addressed each point in the revised manuscript and provide a full point-by-point response in the uploaded file Response_to_Reviewers.docx.

The principal revision is a 24-panel severity-weighted QALY analysis added in response to the concern that the original first-event endpoint gave equal weight to clinically unequal outcomes. We also added recovery-trajectory, residual post-treatment rupture-risk, and coiling-morbidity sensitivity analyses; component-specific outcome reporting; demoted threshold-zone classifications to a secondary role; expanded the Discussion and Limitations; and responded to the journal’s additional requirements regarding file formatting, code sharing, and the supporting life-table file, which we replaced with a minimized model-input workbook. Protocol Amendment v1.5 was registered and frozen before any extension results were generated, and deviations from the amended analysis plan are reported transparently.

Please see the attached Response_to_Reviewers.docx for our complete responses to all Editor, Reviewer, and Journal Requirement comments.

Attachments
Attachment
Submitted filename: Response_to_Reviewers.docx
Decision Letter - Mario Tortora, Editor

Observation versus coiling for unruptured intracranial aneurysms in octogenarians: A decision-analytic modeling study

PONE-D-26-30052R1

Dear Dr. HYUN DONG YOO,

We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements.

Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication.

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Kind regards,

Mario Tortora, PhD, M.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS One

Additional Editor Comments (optional):

The authors have adequately addressed all of the reviewers’ comments and concerns. The revised manuscript has been carefully evaluated, and I am satisfied that all requested revisions have been appropriately addressed. Therefore, I am pleased to recommend acceptance of the manuscript for publication in its present form.

Reviewers' comments:

Formally Accepted
Acceptance Letter - Mario Tortora, Editor

PONE-D-26-30052R1

PLOS One

Dear Dr. YOO,

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Kind regards,

PLOS ONE Editorial Office Staff

on behalf of

Dr. Mario Tortora

Academic Editor

PLOS One

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