Peer Review History
| Original SubmissionJuly 14, 2025 |
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PONE-D-25-38245Scenario-based forecasting of the global energy demand and carbon footprint of artificial intelligencePLOS ONE Dear Dr. Türkay, Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process. Reviewers have identified among other factors the need to add digital infrastructure sustainability, highlight the effect of scenario-based energy forecasting in carbon with respect to computation as well as some components of Materials and Methods. Details of of the reviewers report can be found below this email. Please submit your revised manuscript by Jan 03 2026 11:59PM. If you will need more time than this to complete your revisions, please reply to this message or contact the journal office at plosone@plos.org. When you're ready to submit your revision, log on to https://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/ and select the 'Submissions Needing Revision' folder to locate your manuscript file. Please include the following items when submitting your revised manuscript:
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Please see our Supporting Information guidelines for more information: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/supporting-information. If the reviewer comments include a recommendation to cite specific previously published works, please review and evaluate these publications to determine whether they are relevant and should be cited. There is no requirement to cite these works unless the editor has indicated otherwise. Additional Editor Comments: Reviewers have recommended a major revision [Note: HTML markup is below. Please do not edit.] Reviewers' comments: Reviewer's Responses to Questions Comments to the Author 1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions? The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: No ********** 2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: No ********** 3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available? The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English? PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 5. Review Comments to the Author Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters) Reviewer #1: I recommend publication in PLOS ONE after major revision based on the following comments. 1. The reason for selection of digital infrastructure sustainability must be added. 2. The introduction is too verbose; special effort is needed to trip the contents without jeopardizing the message. 3.Author should highlights the effect of scenario-based energy forecasting in carbon intensity of computation. 4. The authors need to give more information about the research significance. 5. The role of artificial intelligence systems in carbon intensity of computation should be clarified. 6. Some important papers about sustainable energy (sush as doi.org/10.1039/D5EE02029H) can be cited. 7. In the conclusions part, only some conclusions were presented, beyond that, more perspectives are suggested to be provided. Reviewer #2: Title Unspecified, “Scenario-based forecasting of the global energy demand and carbon footprint of AI” fails to indicate the methodological novelty (e.g., MRIO integration, six-scenario modeling) or specific time horizon. Does not distinguish whether the analysis is empirical, simulation-based, or theoretical, reducing clarity for readers searching for methodological studies. Please add study design. Abstract Missing essential methodological transparency (e.g., model validation, uncertainty quantification). No clear mention of data sources or the calibration framework for efficiency parameters. Policy implications are asserted (“efficiency gains alone will not suffice”) but not supported by a quantitative comparison in the abstract. Sentence structure is long and complex, affecting readability. Keywords: Many and lacking prioritization. Some are descriptive rather than functional (“technology adoption” is unclear). Missing terms that reflect the study’s modeling approach (e.g., “scenario analysis,” “sustainability modeling,” “AI energy systems”). Introduction Lengthy and redundant. The background has many pages and repeats data center energy statistics. Limited critical synthesis of prior scenario-based energy studies or integrated assessment models (IAMs); references 5-8 are not analyzed comparatively. The knowledge gap is not articulated; it is unclear whether the novelty lies in global scope, scenario design, or MRIO coupling. Unsupported generalizations, such as “AI currently represents approximately 0.4% of global electricity consumption,” are presented without citing precise datasets or year references. No clear conceptual framework figure to orient the reader before reading the “Methods.” Materials and Methods Model Framework The structure (Fig. 1) is descriptive but there are no validation steps or uncertainty propagation techniques (e.g., Monte Carlo or sensitivity analysis). No justification for selecting exponential and logistic functional forms for model scaling and efficiency gains. Energy Efficiency Modeling Equations (1) to (4) are complex but empirical parameters are not justified nor referenced. Independence assumptions among hardware, algorithmic, and infrastructural efficiencies (Eq. 4) are strong and unsupported. No validation using real-world benchmarks (e.g., GPU generation trends or data center efficiency reports). Computational Demand Depends on compound exponential extrapolation of model complexity and query volume. Population and adoption rates (Eq. 10) use logistic diffusion but no region-specific calibration is shown. Data sources unclear (Supplementary Sections cited but not summarized in text). MRIO Analysis The MRIO methodology is standard, but no sensitivity testing or temporal updating of EXIOBASE is described. Attribution of GPU manufacturing entirely to Taiwan is over-simplified; ignores TSMC Arizona, Samsung Texas, or emerging EU fabs. Carbon Footprint Estimation Equations (15) to (21) are mathematically correct but no validation against known industry LCA benchmarks (e.g., ISO 14040 standards). No error propagation or confidence intervals reported for emission totals. Results Global Energy Demand Scenarios Results are presented as deterministic forecasts though input assumptions are random. Carbon Footprint Breakdown No benchmarking against existing sectoral projections (IEA, IPCC, or McKinsey AI energy reports). Country-level disparities are interesting but derived from proxy variables (IHDI) instead of actual digital infrastructure metrics. Tables referenced in Supplementary Information are essential to credibility but not summarized in the main text. Tables and Figures Tables are descriptive but do not include units, uncertainty, or data sources. Figures 2-3 show projections but lack axis units and confidence interval methods. Figures 2-6 lack legends detailing whether shaded bands represent model variance or scenario spread. Results in Figs 4-6 depend on unvalidated parameters. Discussion Reads more like general ideas instead of being supported by data, analysis, or evidence. Insufficient linkage to numerical findings. Circular reasoning: claims that “efficiency gains alone will not suffice” rest on model assumptions, not strong validation. Exclusion of economic and policy feasibility dimensions weakens the practical relevance. Several citations (30-35) are referenced but not elaborated; end-of-life and circular economy aspects are superficial. Conclusion Mostly a repetition of limitations. No actionable policy guidance or quantifiable thresholds (e.g., emission reduction targets, scenario prioritization). Shifts from cautious projection to assertive prediction (“AI workloads could consume 30 % of global electricity”) without strong evidence. References Formatting inconsistent. Depends on secondary sources (Forbes, Statista-type data) rather than peer-reviewed energy or computing journals. Insufficient citation of existing MRIO and integrated assessment models (e.g., GTAP-E, GCAM, or IAMC frameworks). ********** 6. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files. If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public. Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy. Reviewer #1: No Reviewer #2: No ********** [NOTE: If reviewer comments were submitted as an attachment file, they will be attached to this email and accessible via the submission site. Please log into your account, locate the manuscript record, and check for the action link "View Attachments". If this link does not appear, there are no attachment files.] To ensure your figures meet our technical requirements, please review our figure guidelines: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/figures You may also use PLOS’s free figure tool, NAAS, to help you prepare publication quality figures: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/figures#loc-tools-for-figure-preparation. NAAS will assess whether your figures meet our technical requirements by comparing each figure against our figure specifications.
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| Revision 1 |
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Scenario-based forecasting of the global energy demand and carbon footprint of artificial intelligence PONE-D-25-38245R1 Dear Dr. Türkay, We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements. Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication. However It has been observed that there is a change in authorship, which creates disparity between the initial authors during submission, review and now. please read the plus one conditions regarding this and reach out to the the journal for clarifications. An invoice will be generated when your article is formally accepted. 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Kind regards, John Adebisi, Ph.D Academic Editor PLOS One Additional Editor Comments (optional): Reviewers' comments: Reviewer's Responses to Questions Comments to the Author 1. If the authors have adequately addressed your comments raised in a previous round of review and you feel that this manuscript is now acceptable for publication, you may indicate that here to bypass the “Comments to the Author” section, enter your conflict of interest statement in the “Confidential to Editor” section, and submit your "Accept" recommendation. Reviewer #1: (No Response) Reviewer #2: All comments have been addressed ********** 2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions? The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available? The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English? PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 6. Review Comments to the Author Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters) Reviewer #1: The authors answered the comments very well. Therefore, I recommend this revised manuscript for publication in its current form. Reviewer #2: I am satisfied that the authors have carefully and comprehensively addressed all major and minor comments raised in the previous review round. ********** 7. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files. If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public. Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy. Reviewer #1: No Reviewer #2: No ********** |
| Formally Accepted |
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PONE-D-25-38245R1 PLOS One Dear Dr. Türkay, I'm pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been deemed suitable for publication in PLOS One. Congratulations! Your manuscript is now being handed over to our production team. At this stage, our production department will prepare your paper for publication. This includes ensuring the following: * All references, tables, and figures are properly cited * All relevant supporting information is included in the manuscript submission, * There are no issues that prevent the paper from being properly typeset You will receive further instructions from the production team, including instructions on how to review your proof when it is ready. Please keep in mind that we are working through a large volume of accepted articles, so please give us a few days to review your paper and let you know the next and final steps. Lastly, if your institution or institutions have a press office, please let them know about your upcoming paper now to help maximize its impact. If they'll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team within the next 48 hours. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information, please contact onepress@plos.org. You will receive an invoice from PLOS for your publication fee after your manuscript has reached the completed accept phase. If you receive an email requesting payment before acceptance or for any other service, this may be a phishing scheme. Learn how to identify phishing emails and protect your accounts at https://explore.plos.org/phishing. If we can help with anything else, please email us at customercare@plos.org. Thank you for submitting your work to PLOS ONE and supporting open access. Kind regards, PLOS ONE Editorial Office Staff on behalf of Dr. John Adebisi Academic Editor PLOS One |
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