Peer Review History
| Original SubmissionOctober 11, 2024 |
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Dear Dr. Winder, Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process. Please submit your revised manuscript by Feb 20 2025 11:59PM. If you will need more time than this to complete your revisions, please reply to this message or contact the journal office at plosone@plos.org . When you're ready to submit your revision, log on to https://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/ and select the 'Submissions Needing Revision' folder to locate your manuscript file.
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Kind regards, Peter Gordon Roetzel Academic Editor PLOS ONE Journal Requirements: When submitting your revision, we need you to address these additional requirements. 1. Please ensure that your manuscript meets PLOS ONE's style requirements, including those for file naming. The PLOS ONE style templates can be found at https://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/file?id=wjVg/PLOSOne_formatting_sample_main_body.pdf and 2. Please include captions for your Supporting Information files at the end of your manuscript, and update any in-text citations to match accordingly. Please see our Supporting Information guidelines for more information: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/supporting-information . [Note: HTML markup is below. Please do not edit.] Reviewers' comments: Reviewer's Responses to Questions Comments to the Author 1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions? Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? -->?> Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available??> The PLOS Data policy Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English??> Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** Reviewer #1: !! - see attached document for better readability. --- --- 1. Foreword This research investigates the advice given by generative AI (henceforth, GenAI) in investment strategies for private investors. Three GenAIs representing the most common GenAIs used by the general public were used. The prompts to generate the AI advice included variables such as the investor's age and willingness to take risks in their investments. Contrasting the investment advice offered by a trusted investment source, it was found that the advice given by GenAIs showed typical biases in finance and investment. More specifically, GenAI advice tended to propose overly risky investments, i.e. investments with little geographical diversity (i.e. mainly in the US) and sector diversity (generally in one sector at a time), investments linked to recent trends (last 3 months with the risk of buying high and selling low), active investment allocations (risk of high transaction costs and underperformance) and investments with high management and operating costs measured by the Total Expense Ratio (or TER; where preference should be given to low TERs, i.e. lower fees). It was also observed that, despite additional statements in prompts calling for varied investments (Study 2a; narrow debiasing), investments avoiding typical investment biases such as lack of diversity, clusters or active management (Study 2b; broad debiasing) or specific investment goals (Study 3), these statements only mitigated these risks without cancelling them out. This research addresses a crucial theme regarding the expansion and increasing accessibility of generative AI to the general public. Indeed, it is clear that the performance of these tools is sufficiently convincing for an untrained private investor to be attracted to using them for monetary investments. Nevertheless, as the research rightly points out, the lay investor can risk financial losses without training or a critical eye regarding these pieces of advice. The IT resources used for testing these effects are of outstanding quality. They are readily reproducible (obviously, within the limits that GenAIs never generate strictly identical outputs) and adaptable for further research using the same tools. While it is a criterion for publication in PONE, the availability of computing and analytical resources is a significant advantage for research in this area and for furthering this research. While the quality of the tools and methods used to achieve these results is indisputable, I have significant concerns regarding the presentation format, which needs substantial improvements. The article’s deviation from the typical structure of experimental studies may hinder comprehension. These formatting issues do little to promote its qualities. The theoretical framework is too brief. The methodology lacks several essential components, such as the specifics of the analysis performed. The discussion does not address the relationship between this research and prior studies, as well as its limitations and further research directions [after second reading: I realise that all this is in the Supplementary Information and deserves to be in the article’s main body]. --- --- 2a. Introduction – General comments To begin with, the introduction is too brief for a topic as crucial as the role of AI and the risks associated with trusting potentially risky financial investment advice. The research establishes part of the territory in the first paragraph (26 – 45) by explaining the importance of the study: three articles highlight the rising application of GenAI in financial investments by private investors (i.e., 1–3), while only one study provides concrete statistics related to the population in the UK (i.e., 4). Insufficient studies are presented, especially since they address the issues arising from the increasing reliance on GenAI. Moreover, while the literature may, let’s suppose, be scarce when it comes to the use of GenAI for financial advice, there might be relevant studies in other domains where overreliance can be detrimental and problematic. For instance, overreliance can have adverse effects in fields such as professional relationships, academic advice, etc. The second paragraph (47 – 58) sets out in more detail how GenAIs are prone to various biases, with several scientific articles supporting the point. However, the second paragraph ends by already presenting the research hypotheses and predictions. Indeed, the importance of research is established, and we have learned that more and more private investors are using GenAI advice and that GenAIs have significant biases. However, the paragraph does not establish the niche: we know neither whether there are counter-arguments to the use of GenAI for financial investments (i.e. that there may be benefits to its use) nor whether there is a gap in this issue, nor does it present questions that current research has not yet been able to answer. This paper does not show any limitations of previous research, how it can be developed further, or what it has missed. All these points are aimed at occupying the niche and giving a solution. Finally, the third paragraph (59 – 67) presents the results obtained right before detailing the method, somewhat echoing what was stated in the abstract. A brief overview of the ‘present study’ would have been appreciated instead. Finally, the introduction uses key terms yet fails to clarify or define them in detail. While finance experts may easily understand these terms as they have the necessary background, the scope of this research goes beyond this strict area. It should be accessible to individuals from other fields and, ideally, the general public. This research highlights the dangers of non-experts’ over-reliance on GenAI, non-experts who are not aware of those risks. Unfortunately, this article’s target audience may struggle to appreciate its implications fully. However, I must acknowledge that these terms are in Table 1, which contains nearly sufficient information to address and understand them. This table, only found in the middle of the Method section, summarises the measures, their definitions, their risks, and the calculations used for their accurate measurement. This table summarises definitions that should have been extensively defined beforehand, i.e., at the beginning of the theoretical background. --- 2b. Introduction – Small comments l.48 Even if it is intuitive, is there any source that attests to this claim? l.43 – 45 These terms should have been defined beforehand to thoroughly understand their implications for the research. There is a risk of back-and-forth-reading between paragraphs. --- --- 3a. Methods – General comments In the beginning, I thought the mentioned factors of the risk tendency, the age, and the GenAI were conditions whose levels would be compared for each study in a comprehensive analysis, as it would have been done in a repeated-measures ANOVA or MANOVA (or linear mixed models with iterations as random effects). As mentioned in lines 72 to 76, we have the impression that a comparison between older and younger people would be made in the same manner as a comparison between the different levels of risk-taking (where higher risk-taking could supposedly lead to more significant biases), or even which GenAI would cause the riskier investments. No comparison between these levels is made in the Results section of the primary document. We then understand in the Results section that these variations in the prompts are used to give a more representative sample of prompts possibly used by private investors and that these are repeated over ten iterations each, i.e., 27 cross-conditions by 10 iterations for 270 occurrences in total. These iterations are presented as a factor in the experimental design: if it were the case, the levels of this factor would need to undergo pairwise comparisons (e.g., iteration 1 to iteration 2, iteration 1 to iteration 3, etc.). I would recommend presenting the interactions strictly as iterations of the three previous variables, not as a factor per se. Nevertheless, these comparisons between risk-tendency, age, and GenAI levels are carried out in the Supplementary Information (SI) but should be presented in the manuscript. Indeed, the SI has enormous potential for analyses that deserve to be presented in the manuscript itself. Moreover, SI should be mentioned less in the manuscript. The manuscript should stand on its own as the article, so we do not have to read/refer many times to the SI. Finally, as we reach the conclusion of the section, there is no presentation of the analyses carried out (it seems there are several, in fact): which tests are used? how many? each measure one by one (several ANOVAs at the risk of increasing likelihood of alpha error)? a single and comprehensive analysis (e.g., MANOVA with 5 dependent variables)? which comparisons are carried out (Tukey HSD, LSD, Bonferroni,…)? --- 3b. Methods – Small comments l.74-76 It is not clear who should invest in less risky assets, the younger or the older investors? l.104 TER refers to Total Expense Ratio, but the abbreviation was not introduced earlier. The financial term ‘Total Expense Ratio’ is not defined earlier (unless I am mistaken). l.109 – 110 This builds on my earlier point regarding content that might not be understandable to those unfamiliar with the field. The abbreviation ‘FRED’ is neither introduced nor explained, leaving me – and/or others – unable to grasp the sentence fully. --- --- 4a. Results – General comments In general, the studies’ results are well presented. We know where the comparisons are significant and where GenAI is a problem when compared to the benchmark. The results are also interesting: even with the investment disclaimer avoiding bias (Study 2a, 2b, 3), some of them still stand out. However, I recommend compiling all these descriptive statistics into a summary table for easier readability and to allow you more room to elaborate on each result, such as which sectors or geographical areas are over- or under-represented. I found the paragraph (168 – 177) on portfolio returns intriguing, not merely ‘ancillary,’ as it deserves more attention. This raises an interesting question: despite the biases noted in the literature, do investments made by GenAI still yield returns when compared to those made with trustworthy devices? What about each prompt? Despite the identified biases, could GenAI ultimately have merit? Perhaps only over a span of 3 or 6 months, and less so over 1 or 2 years (to the extent we can project that far back from when the AI outputs were generated)? --- 4b. Results – Small comments l.145 Which sectors specifically? l.163 I am surprised that the benchmark does not suggest any actively managed funds or single equities. l.276 l.275 – 280 l.281 – 287 The ESG score is not mentioned anywhere before, either in the method or in the foreword to the results, nor is its abbreviation presented (i.e., Environmental, Social and Governance score). For a non-expert, it is impossible to guess that ESG represents a score ranging from 0 to 100, where the higher the score, the better it is, and represents high environmental and ethical performance. --- --- 5a. Discussion – General comments As for the introduction, the discussion is too brief and could benefit from further elaboration. The discussion does not mention the links with existing research that would have been presented in the introduction, what answers it provides, what other research it contradicts or agrees with, or the hypotheses it accepts or rejects. Additionally, the discussion does not mention the limitations of the present methodology; variables deliberately left out that could be explored in future studies. Regarding future studies, what new directions and questions could it answer? On this last point, the SI (section 9; p. 22) does suggest some questions that could be further elaborated in the main article. While it is observed that GenAI carry significant biases, the research does not enough emphasise the importance and presence of the disclaimers, specifically the caution against over-reliance on the advice given and the necessity to consult a professional in the field. Notably, the disclaimers in section 5 (p. 17) of the SI are over 75% of the output content, which is substantial (which is the result of numerous reports and precautions taken by the companies behind the GenAIs). --- 5b. Discussion – Small comments l.310 I have some reservations about the term ‘critical guide’. While the present article highlights the biases inherent in GenAI, I agree that it shows in what GenAI can be an unreliable adviser. However, it does not establish a checklist or precise safeguard that investors must follow to use the advice of a GenAI ‘in a fully informed manner’. It acknowledge the risks, but does not offer any proper guidance. --- --- 6. Concluding comments My comments might seem a bit critical, but I genuinely believe that the methodology is sound, valid and reliable. As I said, the format conceals the quality of the substance of this research. I was pleasantly impressed by how the methodology allows for reliable comparisons between GenAI and benchmark advice. Furthermore, the calculations for assessing risk levels are reliable and objective, and the sources (e.g., the benchmark itself) are of high quality. Table 1 is excellent and provides a good overview of the key measures of this research. Reviewer #2: This research paper ( Biased Echoes: Generative AI Models Reinforce Investment Biases and Increase Portfolio Risks of Private Investors) It's a pretty nice , and thanks for the efforts been made on writing this paper. But in order to be published, there are some modifications need to be done. Frist, (in Broader debiasing interventions are more effective in mitigating portfolio risks) the authors need to explain more in study2 regarding the risks that accurate. Also, in (Discussion) section if the authors illustrate more on the studies that been doing. over all the article is very good, just to make these modifications, the paper will be ready to be published. ********** what does this mean? ). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files. If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public. Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy Reviewer #1: Yes: Daniel de Oliveira Fernandes Reviewer #2: Yes: Nawaf Abdualaziz Almolhis ********** [NOTE: If reviewer comments were submitted as an attachment file, they will be attached to this email and accessible via the submission site. Please log into your account, locate the manuscript record, and check for the action link "View Attachments". If this link does not appear, there are no attachment files.] While revising your submission, please upload your figure files to the Preflight Analysis and Conversion Engine (PACE) digital diagnostic tool, https://pacev2.apexcovantage.com/ . PACE helps ensure that figures meet PLOS requirements. To use PACE, you must first register as a user. Registration is free. Then, login and navigate to the UPLOAD tab, where you will find detailed instructions on how to use the tool. If you encounter any issues or have any questions when using PACE, please email PLOS at figures@plos.org . Please note that Supporting Information files do not need this step.
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| Revision 1 |
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Biased echoes: Large language models reinforce investment biases and increase portfolio risks of private investors PONE-D-24-45837R1 Dear Dr. Winder, We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements. Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication. An invoice will be generated when your article is formally accepted. Please note, if your institution has a publishing partnership with PLOS and your article meets the relevant criteria, all or part of your publication costs will be covered. Please make sure your user information is up-to-date by logging into Editorial Manager at Editorial Manager® and clicking the ‘Update My Information' link at the top of the page. If you have any questions relating to publication charges, please contact our Author Billing department directly at authorbilling@plos.org. If your institution or institutions have a press office, please notify them about your upcoming paper to help maximize its impact. If they’ll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team as soon as possible -- no later than 48 hours after receiving the formal acceptance. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information, please contact onepress@plos.org. Kind regards, Peter Gordon Roetzel Academic Editor PLOS ONE Additional Editor Comments (optional): Reviewers' comments: Reviewer's Responses to Questions Comments to the Author Reviewer #2: All comments have been addressed Reviewer #3: All comments have been addressed ********** 2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions??> Reviewer #2: Yes Reviewer #3: Yes ********** 3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? -->?> Reviewer #2: Yes Reviewer #3: Yes ********** 4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available??> The PLOS Data policy Reviewer #2: Yes Reviewer #3: Yes ********** 5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English??> Reviewer #2: Yes Reviewer #3: Yes ********** Reviewer #2: i would like to thank the authors for the efforts been made on this article. I can see that the comments been addressed, so the paper now is ready to be published. Reviewer #3: The investigation of "Biased echoes: Large language models reinforce investment biases and increase portfolio risks of private investors" emphasises, again, that technical tools must be used by professionals; a chainsaw should never be used by an amateur; a very interesting study indeed. In responses to the earlier review, I can see that a lot of effort has been put in to address the identified issues. While any study cannot be 'perfect', the question is whether the study adds to our understanding of something; in reading this study, I am convinced that it definitely does. Since LLMs are built on human generated studies, these will surely will have the same biases - refuting the overzealous claims from the developers of statistical inference tools termed as AI. ********** what does this mean? ). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files. If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public. Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy Reviewer #2: No Reviewer #3: No ********** |
| Formally Accepted |
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PONE-D-24-45837R1 PLOS ONE Dear Dr. Winder, I'm pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been deemed suitable for publication in PLOS ONE. Congratulations! Your manuscript is now being handed over to our production team. At this stage, our production department will prepare your paper for publication. This includes ensuring the following: * All references, tables, and figures are properly cited * All relevant supporting information is included in the manuscript submission, * There are no issues that prevent the paper from being properly typeset You will receive further instructions from the production team, including instructions on how to review your proof when it is ready. Please keep in mind that we are working through a large volume of accepted articles, so please give us a few days to review your paper and let you know the next and final steps. Lastly, if your institution or institutions have a press office, please let them know about your upcoming paper now to help maximize its impact. If they'll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team within the next 48 hours. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information, please contact onepress@plos.org. If we can help with anything else, please email us at customercare@plos.org. Thank you for submitting your work to PLOS ONE and supporting open access. Kind regards, PLOS ONE Editorial Office Staff on behalf of Dr. Peter Gordon Roetzel Academic Editor PLOS ONE |
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