PONE-D-24-04961Comparative SIR/SEIR modeling of the Antonine Plague in RomePLOS ONE

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Reviewers' comments:

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Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Partly

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2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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5. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: The paper offers a valuable contribution to the topic of the nature and impact of the Antonine Plague in late 2nd AD, a pandemic whose scope and mortality was [perceived as] sufficiently great to warrant commentary in the historical sources. The authors adopt a model developed for Justinianic plague in Constaninople to model the possible disease vectors and what excess mortality they would precipitate in Rome, the most densely occupied city in the Empire. None of the different models of pathogens and transmitter mechanisms produce the death rates reported in historical sources, leaving the readers at the crossroads: Authors go through the options: 1) we may need to look out for another pathogen following the Antonine plague or do our models need tweaking ? 2) We may also be dealing with the ‘standard’ topoi and exaggeration. 3) Finally, other factors such as seasonality could have exacerbated the epidemic locally )might have contributed to the large reported numbers).

The article’s aim and methods are very well conceived, referenced, and appointed, leaving us only to ponder the results: specifically, what is the societal impact of 7% excess deaths (if we accept that as a valid figure despite the exceptions raised above) ? Would the impact of missing population be differentially felt in primary production regions (e.g. Egypt) vs craft-based and trade-/shipping- dependent urban environment of Rome? As the conclusions hinge on the final number, I invite the authors to expand on what 7% excess mortality would mean for an ancient urban society? We all live with a fresh memory of covid, and in the light of modern statistics, 7% is hardly a negligible amount. Sweden, blasted for their laissez-faire approach to covid19, ended up with 4.4% exceedance mortality (Ludvigsson 2023, Norberg 2023). The rest of Europe despite much stricter measures (probably unlike Rome) averaged 11.1% excess mortality. Everybody recalls the much greater psychological and economic effects: waves of anxiety, frustrations, followed by economic impoverishment, cultural changes in workforce organization, reduced mental health, suicides, etc.. and that is modern, technologically advanced society. What were the likely impacts in a proto-industral Rome, economically, or psychologically?

Can the authors comment (or provide comparanda) on what constitutes the threshold for “significant” impact when it comes to historical mortality?

Norberg, Johan. 2023. “Sweden during the Pandemic.” 959. Cato Policy Analysis. https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/sweden-during-pandemic.

Ludvigsson, Jonas F. 2023. “How Sweden Approached the COVID-19 Pandemic: Summary and Commentary on the National Commission Inquiry.” Acta Paediatrica 112 (1): 19–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/apa.16535.

Reviewer #2: Dear Editor,

Dear PLOS ONE Editorial Office,

Thank you for inviting me to review the manuscript ID#PONE-D-24-04961, titled “Comparative SIR/SEIR Modeling of the Antonine Plague in Rome.”

Dear Authors,

The article presents a fascinating analysis, employing dynamic ordinary differential equation models to explore the spread of disease in Rome between 165 and 189 CE for several pathogens. I have thoroughly reviewed the manuscript, and my detailed comments and suggestions are provided in the attached comprehensive review report.

Thank you once again for the opportunity to contribute to this important work.

Sincerely,

Reviewer

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Reviewer #1: No

Reviewer #2: No

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Attachments

Attachment

Submitted filename: PlosOne Review_PONE-D-24-04961.pdf

Comparative SIR/SEIR modeling of the Antonine Plague in Rome

PONE-D-24-04961R1

Dear Dr. Karasaridis,

We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements.

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Kind regards,

Onder Tutsoy

Academic Editor

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Additional Editor Comments (optional):

Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. If the authors have adequately addressed your comments raised in a previous round of review and you feel that this manuscript is now acceptable for publication, you may indicate that here to bypass the “Comments to the Author” section, enter your conflict of interest statement in the “Confidential to Editor” section, and submit your "Accept" recommendation.

Reviewer #1: All comments have been addressed

Reviewer #2: All comments have been addressed

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2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

**********

6. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: The authors have addressed my previous comments and prepared a lovely manuscript that represents a major contribution to the discussion of impact of epidemics on demography (ancient or modern).

Reviewer #2: After thorough review, I confirm that the authors have addressed all corrections and updates I indicated in my report and have met the requested criteria comprehensively.

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Reviewer #1: Yes: Adela Sobotkova

Reviewer #2: No

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