PONE-D-23-43188Publication Bias in the Social Sciences since 1959: Application of a Regression Discontinuity FrameworkPLOS ONE

Dear Dr. Rauhut,

Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process.This paper examines the progression of publication bias, particularly in relation to the use of statistical tests in research. The authors observe a trend towards larger studies that employ more sophisticated statistical analyses and adhere to stricter testing criteria. The manuscript is well-composed and utilizes suitable methodologies. Nonetheless, there are a few minor areas that require enhancement. Please review the comments with attention and respond accordingly.

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Yuyan Wang, Ph.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

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Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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5. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: Summary: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolution and current trends in publication bias, primarily in the context of statistical significance testing in empirical research. The authors highlight a shift from theory-based research to larger empirical studies with increasingly complex statistics and stringent significance testing criteria. They discuss the implications of this shift for future research and publication bias, addressing the potential policy changes that could mitigate such biases. The study employs a longitudinal approach to evaluate the changing standards over time, underscoring the movement from the acceptance of the 10 percent significance level to the current preference for the 5 percent or even lower thresholds. The paper further delves into the various interventions proposed by the open science movement to reduce publication bias, such as modifications in the peer-review process, the push for replication studies, and the advocacy for pre-registration and open data policies. The authors conclude that while steps towards reducing biased research are being taken, the journey to overcome these biases is long and requires ongoing evaluation and adaptation of scientific publication practices.

I have some queries and suggestions to improve the manuscript:

1). I would like to request further details regarding the application of the McCrary test as outlined on page 19. Specifically, the manuscript would benefit from a clearer explanation of the smoothing technique applied to the histogram of the test statistic distribution. A more comprehensive discussion on the potential effects of over-smoothing or under-smoothing on the study's findings would greatly enhance the robustness of the methodology presented

2). On page 21, regarding Equation 4, the manuscript does not clearly articulate the process for selecting the bandwidth $h$. For the sake of clarity and reproducibility, a detailed explanation of the criteria and rationale behind the choice of bandwidth would be beneficial to the reader's understanding.

3). In the presentation of the cross-sectional results, specifically observed in Figure 3, there are notable local maxima near z = 2.1 and z = 0.5. The peak at z = 0.5 is particularly intriguing and appears to be insufficiently explained within the current manuscript. An in-depth analysis of this observation and its potential impact on the study's conclusions would be of great interest and could provide valuable insights into the robustness of the findings.

4). On page 27, the authors introduce a 'moving discontinuities' approach to examine longitudinal effects within the dataset. However, the described methodology implies that each interval overlaps with its neighbor by k−1 years, potentially leading to autocorrelation in the estimated values. The treatment of this potential autocorrelation is not sufficiently detailed in the text.

5). In reference to Figure 5, The grey bands highlight the estimation results for disjoint intervals, but it is not clear how these bands are calculated or what they represent statistically. This could be a point of confusion for readers.

6). For Table 2 and Table A3, it would enhance clarity to reposition the bandwidth information currently placed at the bottom of the table. Additionally, a brief explanatory note on the significance of the numerical values presented within parentheses "()" and brackets "[]" would contribute to a more intuitive interpretation of the table's data.

7). Figures A1 and A2 are quite similar. It would be beneficial to provide some markers directly on the plots.

Reviewer #2: The authors proposed a study of publication bias spanning 60 years using a regression discontinuity design. The manuscript is well-organized and written clearly. The research question is presented with commendable clarity, and the chosen study design logically aligns with the research objectives. The discussions are closely tied to the analysis results and are concise. However, one minor comment is that the manuscript contains very detailed explanations for nearly every concept and method, in both social science and statistical science, which makes it verbose and excessively long. The authors might consider revising it to make it more concise and reader friendly.

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Reviewer #1: No

Reviewer #2: No

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Publication Bias in the Social Sciences since 1959: Application of a Regression Discontinuity Framework

PONE-D-23-43188R1

Dear Dr. Rauhut,

We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements.

Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication.

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Kind regards,

Yuyan Wang, Ph.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Additional Editor Comments (optional):

Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. If the authors have adequately addressed your comments raised in a previous round of review and you feel that this manuscript is now acceptable for publication, you may indicate that here to bypass the “Comments to the Author” section, enter your conflict of interest statement in the “Confidential to Editor” section, and submit your "Accept" recommendation.

Reviewer #1: All comments have been addressed

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2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #1: Yes

**********

3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

**********

4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: Yes

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5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #1: Yes

**********

6. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: The authors have addressed the reviewers' comments satisfactorily, and the paper is now suitable for acceptance.

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7. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files.

If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public.

Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy.

Reviewer #1: No

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