Peer Review History
| Original SubmissionOctober 14, 2022 |
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PONE-D-22-27607Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Why null results matterPLOS ONE Dear Dr. Schuurman Many thanks for submitting your manuscript “Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Why null results matter” (with Sarah Carthy) to PLOS ONE. The review process is now complete as I have received comments and recommendations from two reviewers. I was very happy to be offered the help of two highly renowned experts, in whose advice I trust a lot and whom I consider ideal consultants for the evaluation of this submission. I have also read the manuscript carefully myself. Please find the two sets of reviewer comments appended to this letter. My expert advisors are quite content with your manuscript. To quote from Reviewer 1, “The manuscript is beautifully written, well constructed, and definitely worthy of publication.” Reviewer 2 also feels that “This manuscript is interesting. It addresses an interesting and important question ….” Nevertheless, Reviewer 2 and myself each have some concerns. Because I believe these concerns can be addressed, I am offering you an opportunity to revise and resubmit the manuscript. Reviewer 2 makes a number of excellent points and I will not re-iterate all of them here. Instead, I will add several of my own. I appreciate the attempt to drawn more attention to non-significant results but as Reveiwer 2, I am afraid these results are not that novel. Also, by mainly looking at linear relationships between various factors and terrorist violence it may reduce our understanding and the complexity of terrorist violence. First, we already know that structural/root cause factors are not reliable predictors of terrorist violence. To the best of my knowledge support for this linear relationship is limited (e.g., Enders & Hoover, 2012; Krueger & Malečková, 2003; Abadie, 2006; Krueger et al., 2003; Piazza, 2006). In contrast, research suggests the opposite (Bhui et al., 2014). For example, many scholars have proposed that root cause/structural factors are probable necessary conditions, but not sufficient conditions to explain the phenomenon of terrorism violence (see, Sageman, 2004; Kruglanski & Fishman, 2009; Sageman, 2014). I am also concerned with your claim that the null finding lends support to the insufficiency of grievances. I agree that objective grievances have limited merit explaining terrorist violence because subjective (psychological) feelings may not necessarily mirror objective conditions. But we know from social psychological research that it is not the perception of injustice (cognitive component) but feelings (affective component) that matter most for collective action (Starmans et al., 2017; Smith et al., 2012). Related to this, my own work (Obaidi et al., 2018; political psychology) did not find a direct effect of perceived injustice on violent extremism but the relation was mediated by perceived anger. Related to the above I was wondering if the various data set/studies reported any mediation or moderation analysis. For example, it has been proposed by many that Muslim identification is important for understanding terrorist violence but empirical studies often find no direct relation between Muslim identification and terrorist violence, but the effect is mediated by group efficacy or/and intergroup emotions. I would like to see some information regarding the different measures. For example, I am curious to know how grievance is measured in different data sets. The predictive power of grievance is closely related to how we measure grievance (see Smith et al., 2011). As Pettigrew (2016) puts it: “(a) People first make cognitive comparisons, (b) they next make cognitive appraisals that they or their ingroup are disadvantaged, and finally (c) these disadvantages are seen as unfair and arouse angry resentment. If any of these three requirements is missing, grievance is not operating” (p.9). It also important to acknowledge the use of secondary data and it shortcoming, which has been a major issue in research on terrorism. Moreover, more than half of the cases consisted of semi-structured interviews with former 207 extremists and terrorists (N = 37), autobiographical materials written by extremists and terrorists (N = 56) and case files provided by the Dutch Public Prosecution Service (N = 19). Autobiographical materials written by former terrorists have the potential for romanticizing the self or of engaging in self-indulgence. We already know that social desirability bias, self-presentation, introspection and objectivity are of huge concern in this kind of data. I think the reader may also want to see the codebooks as part of the SOM. As Reveiwer 2, I don’t really understand the power rational. Please, address this. Finally, in page 21 you write “… we did not find neurodevelopmental issues (i.e., conditions such as attention-deficit disorder that are distinct from mental illnesses) to be associated with radicalization leading to terrorist violence.” I wonder how these findings align with research showing that 6% of foreign fighters had diagnosable disorders such as psychotic, narcissistic, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, attention-deficit disorder, PTSD, schizophrenia and autism spectrum (Weenink, 2015). I invite you to revise and resubmit your manuscript in response to my comments and those of the Reviewers. 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I look forward to receiving the revised manuscript and thank you for considering PLOS ONE as an outlet for your research. Kind regards, Milan Obaidi Academic Editor PLOS ONE Journal Requirements: When submitting your revision, we need you to address these additional requirements. 1. Please ensure that your manuscript meets PLOS ONE's style requirements, including those for file naming. The PLOS ONE style templates can be found at https://journals.plos.org/plosone/s/file?id=wjVg/PLOSOne_formatting_sample_main_body.pdf and 2. We noted in your submission details that a portion of your manuscript may have been presented or published elsewhere. Please clarify whether this publication was peer-reviewed and formally published. If this work was previously peer-reviewed and published, in the cover letter please provide the reason that this work does not constitute dual publication and should be included in the current manuscript. [Note: HTML markup is below. Please do not edit.] Reviewers' comments: Reviewer's Responses to Questions Comments to the Author 1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions? The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available? The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English? PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 5. Review Comments to the Author Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters) Reviewer #1: This manuscript discusses several structural and individual-level explanatory variables which failed to emerge as significant predictors of involvement in terrorist violence in a dataset (N = 206) of right-wing and jihadist extremists active in Europe and North America. The manuscript illustrates how some variables emerge as salient predictors of involvement in terrorist violence during a lifespan, but not others. This manuscript interrogates and interesting and important phenomena. Non-significant results are often as, if not more, important that statistically significant results. However, in this field, there is a distinct lack of interest in such reporting. The manuscript is beautifully written, well constructed, and definitely worthy of publication. However, prior to publication, Table 2 should be split into different tables to reflect the different forms of analysis conducted. This will help in the interpretation of both the results and the areas of discussion. Reviewer #2: This manuscript is interesting. It addresses an interesting and important question of what we can learn from insignificant findings regarding predictors of involvement in terrorist violence. The manuscript reviews a number of individual level, situational and systemic factors that extant literature highlights as candidates for predicting involvement in terrorist violence and use a data set of Islamist and far-right extremist (N=206), who all radicalized in terms of ideology and acceptance of violence as a political mean, but only half ended up engaging in terrorist violence, to test the significance of these potential predictors. The manuscript argues that we can learn from the insignificant results, especially when a given variable turns out to be insignificant in terms of predicting involvement in terrorist violence at the outset of radicalization, but becomes a significant predictor during radicalization. As such, the article argues that while some static factors fail to predict terrorist involvement, treating the factors over time (during radicalization) produces different results. Thus, radicalization may have less to do with individual pre-disposing factors and more to do with dynamic development of e.g. social ties over time. These are important points often overlooked in the literature. However, the manuscript also suffers from substantial weaknesses: 1) While the conclusion about the need to look at risk factors of involvement in terrorist violence in a more dynamic/temporal way than allowed by simple regression models is important, it is hardly new. Well, it might be a new insight reached from a variance-based outset/methodology. However, research on involvement in terrorist violence departing from more case-based and relational perspectives have argued along these lines for years (e.g. Della Porta 1992; McAdam 1986; McAdam and Paulsen 1993; Moskalenko and McCauley 2009; Passy 2001; Sageman 2004; Snow, Zurcher, and Ekland-Olson 1980; Wiktorowicz 2005; van Stekelenburg and Klandermans 2013; for an overview see Malthaner 2017). The manuscript needs to address this literature and show how the findings highlighted in the manuscript aligns with the arguments of this relevant literature in order to establish a contribution. 2) There is a tendency to talk about different variables’ ‘effect’ on the outcome (engagement/non engagement in terrorist violence) and observed differences as ‘effect sizes’, suggesting a causal relationship between factors. As all analysis on which the manuscript rests are purely correlational this is unfortunate and misleading. The manuscript should take greater care in formulations here and needs to explicitly address the difference between causal and purely correlational relationships. 3) The individual matching of cases is not sufficiently described. Did this matching happen within e.g. the ‘islamist’ and ‘far-right’ samples or across. This process of matching needs to much better described. 4) It is unclear why ‘Islamist’ and ‘far-right’ cases are lumped together, despite these being two main types of radicalization in the West. Likewise, why lump group-based and lone actor terrorists together? This lumping together will increase sample bias and the likelihood of non-significant results. The consequences of these choices for the findings and conclusions drawn needs to be better discussed. 5) The issue of statistical power to detect statistically significant differences in the analysis needs to be much more explicitly addressed. What does the N=206 mean for detecting such differences and what would happen to our chances of detecting differences if the ‘lumping problem’ was solved by splitting the data in two - an islamist and a far-right dataset of N=103 each? How is the calculation of X2 sensitive the size of N? 6) This reviewer misses a more detailed discussion of the problem of replication of findings within terrorism research; what are the causes of this? Data problems? Design problems? Publication biases? 7) The manuscript would benefit from a discussion of to what degree the relevance of looking at non-significant findings/null findings is particular to the terrorism research field. How does this relevance change e.g. when turning to a more advanced research field where the quality and extent of empirical studies is higher? Based on this and providing an overall assessment of the manuscript, I recommend inviting the authors to revise and resubmit their manuscript after major revisions. Smaller issues: - line 119, should ‘lower’ not be ‘increase’? - table 2 is difficult to read – can this be simplified somehow? ********** 6. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files. If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public. Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy. 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| Revision 1 |
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Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes PONE-D-22-27607R1 Dear Dr. Schuurman, We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements. Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication. An invoice for payment will follow shortly after the formal acceptance. To ensure an efficient process, please log into Editorial Manager at http://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/, click the 'Update My Information' link at the top of the page, and double check that your user information is up-to-date. If you have any billing related questions, please contact our Author Billing department directly at authorbilling@plos.org. If your institution or institutions have a press office, please notify them about your upcoming paper to help maximize its impact. If they’ll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team as soon as possible -- no later than 48 hours after receiving the formal acceptance. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information, please contact onepress@plos.org. Kind regards, Sylvester Chidi Chima, M.D., L.L.M, LLD, Academic Editor PLOS ONE Additional Editor Comments (optional): Reviewers' comments: Reviewer's Responses to Questions Comments to the Author 1. If the authors have adequately addressed your comments raised in a previous round of review and you feel that this manuscript is now acceptable for publication, you may indicate that here to bypass the “Comments to the Author” section, enter your conflict of interest statement in the “Confidential to Editor” section, and submit your "Accept" recommendation. Reviewer #1: All comments have been addressed Reviewer #2: All comments have been addressed ********** 2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions? The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously? Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available? The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English? PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here. Reviewer #1: Yes Reviewer #2: Yes ********** 6. Review Comments to the Author Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters) Reviewer #1: (No Response) Reviewer #2: I appreciate the thorough response by the authors to my concerns. The authors have dealt with these in a serious manner, which in my view have improved the quality of manuscript considerably. ********** 7. PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files. If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public. Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy. Reviewer #1: No Reviewer #2: No ********** |
| Formally Accepted |
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PONE-D-22-27607R1 Contextualizing involvement in terrorist violence by considering non-significant findings: Using null results and temporal perspectives to better understand radicalization outcomes Dear Dr. Schuurman: I'm pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been deemed suitable for publication in PLOS ONE. Congratulations! Your manuscript is now with our production department. If your institution or institutions have a press office, please let them know about your upcoming paper now to help maximize its impact. If they'll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team within the next 48 hours. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information please contact onepress@plos.org. If we can help with anything else, please email us at plosone@plos.org. Thank you for submitting your work to PLOS ONE and supporting open access. Kind regards, PLOS ONE Editorial Office Staff on behalf of Professor Sylvester Chidi Chima Academic Editor PLOS ONE |
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